3 reasons to believe the Cinderella White Sox can spring an ALDS upset

The Chicago White Sox put the Houston Astros to bed swiftly in the AL Wild Card round with two dominant performances on the road. Now, the South Siders head to the ALDS for the first time since 2021 — and for only the second time since their World Series victory in 2005.

It's a true underdog story. Chicago had lost 100-plus games in three straight seasons prior to this miraculous turnaround. Nobody expected the White Sox to get here. It wasn't a smooth journey either, and there are plenty of reasons to doubt Chicago against a more experienced Cleveland Guardians team in the next round. But here's why you should believe in the White Sox.

Vibes and abundant blessings

There is no better vibes team in MLB right now than the Chicago White Sox. That comes with the territory: the White Sox have the third-youngest roster in the postseason with an average age of 28. Ironically, the Guardians are younger. But Cleveland has been there and done that. The core of the Guardians roster is well-seasoned with postseason experience. The core of this Sox roster is comprised almost exclusively of hungry, up-and-coming ballplayers who are desperate to prove themselves at this level. Andrew Benintendi is the only White Sox regular with an October résumé.

The majority of Chicago's lineup, in fact, are either rookies (Munetaka Murakami, Sam Antonacci, Tristan Peters, Braden Montgomery) or second-year guys (Chase Meidroth, Colson Montgomery, Kyle Teel). That comes with a natural camaraderie and joie de vivre. These guys all get along, they all celebrate in a rambunctious, sometimes X-rated fashion. They share references and commit to bits. It's what makes them so easy to root for.

Youth and inexperience are often cited as negatives in the postseason, but what if it's the opposite for Chicago? The White Sox can embrace the underdog mentality, that "nobody believes in us" schtick, more earnestly than any other team.

Moreover, Chicago has "abundant blessings" from Pope Leo XIV, who grew up rooting for the White Sox and was in attendance at the 2005 World Series. Does history bend toward the Pope's childhood baseball team? For the first time ever, we're about to find out.

White Sox are the better offensive team, top to bottom

The White Sox aren't here by accident either. Chicago has plenty of shortcomings, but this was one of the most potent lineups in MLB all season. The White Sox experienced a huge influx of young talent from their farm system and just about everyone has contributed; these are top-shelf athletes in their athletic primes, on which opponents have only half-complete scouting reports.

There's an unknown quality to the White Sox lineup that makes it all the more dangerous. And the numbers speak plainly: Chicago can out-slug the Guardians any day of the week, twice on Sunday.

The Guardians lineup is less rickety than it has been in years past, in part due to internal growth and promotions (Chase DeLauter posted an .820 OPS as a rookie, while Travis Bazzana was an All-Star) and in part due to timely additions at the trade deadline. However, José Ramírez — the longtime superstar centerpiece of Cleveland's lineup — is slumping through a career-worst season. The Guardians' highest-fWAR position player is Brayan Rocchio (3.6), who's a defensive specialist. There is value in elite defense, don't get me wrong. But Chicago has Miguel Vargas (5.3 fWAR), Munetaka Murakami (2.9 fWAR) and even Colson Montgomery (2.8 fWAR), all of whom can do more per-swing damage than anybody on the Guardians roster.

Cleveland plays a very particular style of baseball, focused on the small things — base-running, bunts, situational hitting and elite defense — that leads to a high regular season baseline. But time and time again, the Guardians have fallen flat against more explosive offensive teams in October. Chicago is the more explosive offensive team.

Chicago's pitching disadvantage is overstated

The swing factor in this series will be pitching. Cleveland has the statistical edge in virtually every major category. The Guardians' pitching machine is well documented; few organizations in MLB are better at developing and maximizing their pitchers on a matchup-by-matchup basis.

Chicago, on the other hand, has experienced dramatic ups and downs on the mound this season. Davis Martin and Sean Burke have looked like All-Stars some months, then looked unplayable the next. Chicago opened its Wild Card series with a bullpen game after their splashy trade deadline acquisition of Luis Castillo went sideways. The Guardians' depth no doubt outstrips Chicago's when it comes to finding quality innings.

But let's not act like the Guardians pitching staff is infallible. Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski and Tim Herrin are Cleveland's only real leverage relievers; Gaddis and Herrin, in particular, have vastly outperformed their metrics all season, which portends regression in a high-pressure October environment.

Parker Messick and Gavin Williams is a tremendous one-two punch and Cleveland has the advantage of lining up their rotation for the ALDS, so Chicago will be punching uphill a bit in the first two games. But Messick is unproven on this stage and Williams has experienced more inconsistency than usual in 2026, so the old adage — anything can happen — most certainly applies.

Moreover, it's unclear if the Guardians even have a third dependable starter, despite all their proclaimed depth. Foster Griffin struggled mightily after arriving at the trade deadline, while Tanner Bibee has floundered for much of the year, despite his killer reputation. So Cleveland could end up using bullpen and bulk setups of their own, which will greatly even the playing field as the series progresses.

Burke and Martin, Chicago's frontline starters, both finished the regular season strong. Hagen Smith was lights-out across three innings as an opener in the Astros series. While the rookie southpaw is not stretched out as a starter, he's used to throwing multiple innings and he has been one of MLB's top pound-for-pound pitchers since his midseason promotion.

Chicago's bullpen gets roundly criticized, but in terms of finding innings, it shouldn't be too steep a task. Erick Fedde and Anthony Kay were both solid enough in starting roles this season; perhaps their stuff plays up in the bullpen. It sure looked that way with Fedde when he closed out Chicago's series-clinching Game 2 victory in Houston. Same for rookies Noah Schultz and David Sandlin. Moreover, Grant Taylor has quietly emerged as a dominant high-leverage arm and the White Sox are comfortable stretching him for 2-3 innings.

It's not hard to poke holes in the White Sox pitching staff, to be clear. But the White Sox can get more creative with their bullpen alignment than a lot of folks seem to realize. There are enough bodies, enough arms and enough bullets, for Chicago to keep a tame Guardians lineup in check. If their offense explodes, Cleveland is not built to take advantage of Chicago's staff the same way a better team (see: Yankees, Rays) might. The Guardians don't win shootouts; the White Sox do.

So, while I am not picking the White Sox to win the American League pennant, the Guardians are pretty much an ideal draw in the second round. There is a lot of familiarity on both sides of this division rivalry and a wide range of outcomes are on the table, but do not write off the White Sox.

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