The New York Yankees shoved the Boston Red Sox in a locker in the Wild Card round, which raised expectations ahead of an ALDS showdown against another staunch division rival in the Tampa Bay Rays. Well, the Yankees quickly hit a roadblock named Drew Rasmussen.
Rasmussen carried a no-hitter through 7.2 innings, until Austin Wells smacked a double down the right field line with two outs in the eighth inning. The only problem? Wells tried to turn a double into a triple and was promptly thrown out.
The end result: a 1-0 Rays victory, with the Yankees' shorthanded lineup stinking up the joint — and with a classic, very Yankees-coded blunder on the bases to secure the victory for Tampa. Still, New York certainly not out of this series. It's best to five. Panic not. Here is why the Yankees are still very much alive.
Cam Schlittler and Max Fried
Rasmussen is a Yankees killer through and through, and it just so happens that he's one of the best pitchers in MLB, too. He should finish top-five in AL Cy Young voting. You'd still like to come through with more than one hit in eight innings, but also, credit where credit is due — elite pitching very often beats elite hitting. Rasmussen carried his load and the Rays won Game 1 with their top starter, like it was drawn up.
Tampa was able to line up their rotation after a first-round bye. The Yankees, not so much. Gerrit Cole was excellent in his own right on Saturday afternoon, with five Ks and only one earned run allowed in five innings. But he is New York's No. 3 starter (maybe No. 4?) at this stage of his career. Next on the docket are the Yankees' heavyweights, Cam Schlittler and Max Fried.
Schlittler is basically the annointed AL Cy Young winner already; In three starts against Tampa Bay this season, he put up a 2.81 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 16.0 innings. Fried's numbers are less thrilling (a 4.30 ERA in two starts), but there's a long track record of success there. New York can feel reasonably strong about both its front-facing aces. If New York ices Fried until Game 4, Carlos Rodón would get the nod after Schlittler. He pitched eight scoreless innings in his lone start against the Rays this season.
Tampa has even more concerns offensively
And the Rays ... scored one run total in Game 1, lest we forget. The concern with Tampa has always been whether or not the lineup can show up in October. The Rays can almost always string together outs, batten down the hatches defensively and run the bases with both vigor and intelligence, unlike their opponents. But the Yankees are by far the most potent offensive team in the American League in most matchups.
Freddy Peralta and Nick Martinez are decidedly not Rasmussen. Besides Junior Caminero and Yandy DÃaz, Tampa lacks the star power and offensive ceiling of New York. If the Yankees can do damage against the Rays' second, third and fourth-best starters, a couple aimless mistakes on defense or on the base paths won't feel so catastrophic. Tampa has a very strong bullpen, but the sooner New York can put the Rays in their relief cycle, the more opportunities to exploit Tampa's depth while Schlittler and Fried pitch six-plus innings.
The Rays were, if anything, lucky that Wells ran headlong into an inning-ending out rather than putting a runner in scoring position with two outs and Rasmussen over 100 pitches. Who knows how last night's game ends if the Yankees can tie things up heading into the ninth with both bullpens unlocked? Tampa is far more reliant on elite pitching than New York, but the Yankees have more of it — at least at the front of their rotation.
Two of the next three games are in New York
Momentum is everything in sports and it can shift frequently and violently over the course of a single series. The environment at Tropicana Field on Saturday afternoon far exceeded expectations. The Trop is frequently dismissed as a subpar ballpark and Rays fans are not known historically for their sellout crowds. But Rays fans showed up in force for Game 1 and put considerable wind behind Rasmussen's sails.
Game 2 should provide a similarly juiced environment, but the series moves to New York for Game 3 (and Game 4, if New York can pull out a win or two). In fact, if the Yankees win Game 2 on Monday night, that means a chance to theoretically close out the series in the Bronx, in front of a raucous Yankee Stadium.
While losing Game 1 is practically a death sentence in the Wild Card round, the odds for a comeback spike meaningfully in the divisional round. New York can ill-afford another loss in Game 2, that much is true. But if the Yankees can produce any meaningful offense against Tampa's lesser pitchers, this series will turn on its head quickly.
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