With the exception of Braves-Phillies (of course), this year's Wild Card round was pretty lopsided. The competition should heat up in the Divisional Series, however. Not only are the best teams in each league being reintroduced, but we have division rivals and compelling stylistic contrasts.
The Brewers and Padres could not be more different in how their teams were built. The Rays and Yankees don't like each other. The Guardians and White Sox also don't like each other. As for Braves-Dodgers? Well, there's plenty of recent history there. But which teams have the look of title contenders as we move deeper into October? Let's rank all eight remaining teams in terms of championship equity.
8. Chicago White Sox
The White Sox made it hard on themselves down the stretch, but Chicago is riding high after a first-round sweep of the Astros, with blessings from the Pope. Coming into the postseason, the White Sox were broadly dinged for their youth and inexperience. As fate would have it, though, the South Siders were significantly more poised than a seasoned Astros team.
Chicago's lineup performed top to bottom. They worked deep into counts and made smart, situational swings. The rotation is still a mess, and the bullpen is not much better, but there's a lovable underdog quality to this White Sox team that is hard to ignore. By default, the White Sox rank last here, but an ALDS matchup with the Guardians is perfectly winnable. Do not discount the possibility of a South Siders pennant run.
7. Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland has been there and done that. This team is always the AL Central champ, it feels like, even when the odds are stacked against them. The Guardians hit much better down the stretch after a brutal start to the campaign, while their pitching is a potential superpower. Parker Messick and Gavin Williams can match just about any aces blow-for-blow, and this bullpen always tends to perform.
The question now becomes: Can Stephen Vogt's squad translate their signature Guards Ball style to October? The answer for years now has been "no." Cleveland lacks thump in the heart of the order, but tends to execute the small things — bunts, base-running, two-strike hitting — better than anyone. Chicago's pitching staff is vulnerable and the Guardians have the edge in experience, but so did Houston. And the Astros' bats were much better. The outcome of this series will not shock me in either direction, to be frank.
6. Atlanta Braves
The Braves lineup struggled down the stretch but appeared to wake up against the Phillies, especially in the clincher. Atlanta has no shortage of offensive talent and a deep bullpen, with plenty of postseason experience to draw on. So why ranked so low?
Well, the rotation is a mess. Chris Sale is an elite 1A, but Tyler Mahle is questionable against better offensive teams (see: Dodgers) and their third starter is Grant Holmes behind an opener. Atlanta has seven starters on the IL and could struggle to build a bridge to the stellar back end of their bullpen in non-Sale starts. That said, if the Braves' bats heat up, perhaps it does not matter. There is a clear break in quality between Cleveland at No. 7 and the rest of the field. The Braves are very, very capable of mounting a deep run. Atlanta notably went 5-1 against the Dodgers this season.
5. Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays just kept winning all season long. There was no more consistent force in the American League. We can quibble with the back half of their lineup and question the depth of their rotation, but the Rays are an extremely disciplined club with star power (Junior Caminero) and fundamental skills (Chandler Simpson, Jonny DeLuca) in equal measure.
Tampa is going to defend at a high level and run the bases with intent. Their pitching staff does not look so fearsome on paper, but Drew Rasmussen is a bonafide ace and Freddy Peralta looked more like himself in September. Whether this team can match the raw explosiveness of the Yankees' lineup is the swing factor. On the flip side, New York has a propensity for unforced errors that Tampa can ruthlessly capitalize on.
4. New York Yankees
The Yankees are still waiting on Aaron Judge. New York stuffed its Wild Card roster with platoon bats and situational hitters, but Aaron Boone probably needs more pitchers for a five-game Divisional Series. The lineup exploded against the Red Sox, but Tampa will almost certainly manage its pitching staff better than Chad Tracy and Boston did.
New York is the best team in the American League on paper, even with all their injuries, but the bullpen is perilously thin and it's hard to trust this lineup completely. Ben Rice has caught fire at an optimal moment, so there's that. And the Yankees boast, by far, the most star power of any team west of Los Angeles. Whether it can all come together against a healthy, well-rested Rays team remains to be seen.
3. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers, almost without fail, dominate the regular season despite ownership's pervasive cheapness. This team knows how to develop talent in-house and locate value on the margins. There is no better-run small-market clubhouse in MLB. And yet, Milwaukee has consistently fallen flat in the playoffs. Whether or not this year is any different comes down to a couple factors.
First, Jacob Misiorowski helps. Milwaukee has the best pitcher in baseball and he may damn near guarantee a Game 1 win in the NLDS. The Brewers' bullpen is rock solid, too, while the depth of their rotation is respectable. Milwaukee's pitching can win ballgames. More importantly, there's less elite competition than usual; even the Dodgers are scuttling at the plate, while the entire American League is poked full of holes. The path has never been clearer for the Brewers, who compensate for limited slug with impressive plate discipline and savvy situational hitting. If Milwaukee can maintain its extraordinarily high baseline, there's reason to believe this could be the year it all clicks.
2. San Diego Padres
There are few stars I trust more in a high-leverage spot than Fernando Tatis Jr. The man just makes good things happen, whether he's using his power or his speed. San Diego's entire lineup, really, has come on strong in the final month. After sputtering for much of the regular season, the likes of Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado have apparently remembered how talented they are. Gavin Sheets and Ty France are improbably major contributors. On the pitching front, Michael King and Nick Pivetta tore through a loaded Cubs lineup. The Padres' bullpen is the best in baseball, so no team can more easily build a bridge between their frontline starters and the ninth inning.
San Diego's rotation depth is suspect; once Walker Buehler and Robbie Ray are asked to carry several innings, it could get dicey. But in terms of momentum and top shelf star power, the Padres clear the majority of the competition around them. It can't hurt that San Diego plays the Dodgers as well as any team, either. That matchup could ultimately define the 2026 season, assuming the Padres can out-slug the No. 1 seed Brewers.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
This shouldn't come as a shock. The Dodgers aren't as untouchable as their reputation suggests, but there's still only one team with Tarik Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow lined up on the mound. Meanwhile, Shohei Ohtani has proven his capacity for clutch swings time after time since arriving in Hollywood two years ago. Los Angeles has the best pitchers and the best player in MLB, with a star-studded lineup to boot. Mookie Betts, Kyle Tucker and Freddie Freeman weren't at the peak of their powers this season, but that's still a group worth trusting when every at-bat is magnified.
Los Angeles has depth, too. Josue De Paula is one of the most exciting young bats in baseball and the Dodgers barely have room for him on the roster. Alex Call and Dalton Rushing are useful as situational hitters. The primary concern is L.A.'s bullpen, but Rōki Sasaki, Kris Bubic and Justin Wrobleski — their excess rotation arms — should help the Dodgers cover innings when needed. The Dodgers are banged-up and very much vulnerable, but this is still the team to beat, full stop.
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