Losing Game 1 of a Wild Card series has proven to be a near-death sentence for MLB postseason teams, and that proved to be the case once again this season, with each Game 1 victor advancing to the Division Series. While losing a Game 1 of a Division Series is less than ideal, the fact that those series are best-of-five rather than best-of-three means that a comeback is easier to envision for the teams in an early hole.
With that being said, the likelihood of some teams coming back is far greater than others. Let's dive in.
4. Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves were the only Wild Card team to play a winner-take-all third game, and had the Phillies started Zack Wheeler in that game over Aaron Nola, who knows if the Braves would've even gotten this far? They did wind up getting this far, but they also got the toughest draw in the Division Series, having to play the back-to-back defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers.
Sure enough, despite a relatively close 5-3 final, the Braves looked overmatched for much of Game 1. If Chris Sale is able to start Game 2 (which would then also line him up to start a potential Game 5), it'd be easier to envision a Braves comeback. But not only is Sale seen to be unlikely to start after being used in relief in the Wild Card series decider, but the Dodgers' pitching is tough to beat. Should we trust Atlanta's offense, particularly with the likes of Drake Baldwin, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson off to rough starts this postseason, to score runs against guys like Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto?
There's a reason that the Dodgers are favorites to three-peat, and while the Braves have defied the odds all year, it's hard to envision a miraculous comeback.
3. Cleveland Guardians
The Cleveland Guardians got a week off and got to line up their ace, Parker Messick, against a Chicago White Sox team deploying a bullpen game. Well, not only was Messick knocked out of the game in the fifth inning, but the Guardians managed no runs on three hits offensively and now have to face Chicago's best starter, Sean Burke, in Game 2.
The Guardians won the division over the White Sox, so they shouldn't be completely counted out, but there are two things to consider. First, we got a glimpse of just how good this White Sox team can be on Saturday. Their bullpen, led largely by Hagen Smith and Grant Taylor, is a lot better than it's given credit for, and they have boppers up and down the lineup. Second, should we be believing in the Guardians' ability to score runs?
Cleveland has a history of coming up small offensively in the playoffs, and while their lineup around Jose Ramirez is a bit deeper now than in years past, Ramirez isn't playing like the superstar he once was. The White Sox are better than they're given credit for, and the Guardians remain a very hard team to trust, even with their high-end pitching staff.
2. New York Yankees
The New York Yankees looked completely overmatched by Drew Rasmussen in their Game 1 defeat, but not only is Rasmussen an elite pitcher with a history of dominating the Yankees, but New York's pitching did well to hold Tampa Bay to just one run — with Gerrit Cole, their third- or fourth-best starter, covering five of those innings.
The Yankees will need to prove they can hit good pitching, but AL Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler is their Game 2 starter. If they can win the Schlittler game, evening the series at a win apiece, why can't they win two of the next three, especially with Schlittler lined up to start a potential Game 5? The Yankees' pitching is as good, if not better, than Tampa Bay's, and while their lineup struggled in Game 1, there's reason to believe they can have more luck on that end as well.
1. San Diego Padres
It looked like the San Diego Padres were perfectly positioned to steal Game 1 against the Milwaukee Brewers. They performed as well as any offense has all year against Jacob Misiorowski, knocking him out of the game after four innings. It then looked like they were bound to take the lead on Ty France's controversial fly ball in the ninth.
I don't trust San Diego's starting pitching, but I also don't believe Adrian Morejon will allow another backbreaking home run, and it's also worth noting that the Padres had nine hits, drew four walks and went 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position in a game started by the soon-to-be NL Cy Young winner. They arguably have the upper hand in the starting pitching department in Game 2 with Michael King slated to face Logan Henderson, and I trust San Diego's lineup and bullpen more to will them past a Brewers team that has to prove it can hit in the postseason.
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