When the New York Yankees arrived to play four games against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park in late June, there so little juice that folks began to wonder whether baseball's most famous rivalry had passed its sell-by date — the product of baseball's bloated postseason format and Boston's dismally disappointing start to the season.
What a difference a couple of months can make. Boston and New York kick off another four-game set in the Bronx on Friday night, and the stakes almost couldn't be higher. Sure, both teams are virtual locks to reach October — we'll save the debate over the second and third Wild Card spots for another day — but they also enter this weekend with serious questions about their championship viability. The winner will go a long way toward putting those questions to bed, and staying alive in the AL East race to boot. The loser ... well, let's just say talk-radio lines will be busy for the next few days.
This rivalry is at its best when things feel downright existential, like a loss might fully swallow you whole. Which team will earn bragging rights when all is said and done? We've got five bold predictions for how this mammoth series will unfold.
Cam Schlittler silences the haters (at least for now)
Schlittler gets the ball for the series opener, and while it's not the biggest start of his career to date, it's a pretty close second. The Yankees come in reeling a bit, having just dropped two of three against the Astros in sloppy fashion. The offense, in particular, has been a mess ever since Aaron Judge went down. It's hard to imagine New York even salvaging a split of this series if they don't win on Friday night — and it's hard to imagine them winning on Friday night if Schlittler doesn't put up a vintage performance. And of course, that's not to mention the well-documented bad blood between the righty and his home-state team.
Schlittler has sparkling lifetime numbers against Boston; in addition to his eight-inning masterpiece in last year's Wild Card series, he's allowed just two earned runs across 18.2 frames in three starts against the Red Sox this season. But it's worth noting that the most recent of those was a bit bumpy: While Schlittler didn't get charged with an earned run, he gave up four runs total while allowing five hits and two walks in just five innings of work in a 6-3 Boston win.
I think he bounces back on Friday night. He's made a habit of delivering in big spots in his two years in the Majors, and you know the adrenaline will be pumping given the raucous environment and the sky-high stakes. The Red Sox will likely be without both Roman Anthony and Adley Rutschman for the opener, and I think Schlittler leads the Yankees to a win.
Ceddanne Rafaela will expose New York's center field problem
Rafaela has been one of the big reasons Boston's lineup has been able to stay afloat of late despite injuries to several key players. He also just so happens to be arguably the best defender in the sport right now, capable of tracking down just about anything in center field.
The Yankees, by contrast, will be relying on Trent Grisham in center, and while his patience and pop at the plate are valuable, he's also a greatly diminished athlete who's been a butcher in the field all year long. You'd be hard-pressed to find a bigger difference between two players at the same position in the same series, and that difference is likely to rear its head at some point over the next three days. Rafaela is a weapon defensively, and his speed means he'll also put tons of pressure on a shaky Yankees defense. Expect him to have a hand in at least one critical rally this weekend.
George Lombard Jr. will have a bounce-back weekend
Speaking of that shaky Yankees defense: Lombard Jr. has come crashing back to Earth after a dream start to his MLB career, with an error in a whopping six straight games now. The physical tools haven't gone anywhere; Lombard Jr. has the size, speed and arm strength the handle the position with aplomb. At this point, it seems more mental than anything, more than understandable for a 21-year-old with weeks of big-league experience thrust into a premium position for a team chasing a World Series.
But for as loud as the chatter has gotten around him, I think he'll answer the bell this weekend. For starters, he's simply too gifted an athlete at short to keep kicking the ball around forever. And I also think this could be a favorable matchup for him at the plate: Lombard Jr. has struggled to handle velocity so far in his MLB career, but the Red Sox will run out three soft-tossing lefties in Patrick Sandoval, Jake Bennett and Ranger Suarez. New York is going to need him to produce in both facets of the game, and he should be up for the challenge.
Roman Anthony returns with a bang
Anthony won't be in the lineup for the series opener on Friday night, as he remains with Triple-A Worcester on a rehab assignment. All signs point to him returning at some point this weekend, though, and that's a scary thought for the Yankees.
Sure, Anthony hasn't played since early May, and he had just a .675 OPS when he landed on the IL with a mysterious hand/wrist injury. But the under-the-hood data was still awfully impressive, even if he still wasn't pulling the ball in the air nearly enough. This is still one of the brightest young talents in the sport, and he'll be extra motivated to come back with a big statement against a rival on their home turf. The guess here is he has at least one signature moment over the weekend.
A four-game split leaves New York ahead in the AL Wild Card chase
This likely won't be satisfying to either side, but I think a split is the most likely outcome here. That's partly to do with how the pitching matchups shake out:
- Friday: Patrick Sandoval vs. Cam Schlittler
- Saturday, Game 1: Jake Bennett vs. Carlos Rodon
- Saturday, Game 2: Brayan Bello* vs. Max Fried
- Sunday: Ranger Suarez vs. Will Warren
New York has the clear advantage on the mound in Game 1, and while Saturday will mark Fried's return from a couple of weeks on the IL, you still have to like his chances against Boston's combination of an opener followed by Brayan Bello. It's hard to imagine the Yankees doing a ton offensively off of either Bennett or Suarez, though, which is why I have this ending at a 2-2 draw.
The Yankees would probably sign up for that, given that they currently hold a two-game edge over Boston in the standings and the fact that New York is just trying to bide time until Judge returns at some point in September. But the Red Sox are getting larger and larger in the rearview mirror, and there's no margin for error remaining.
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