The month of September is here, meaning that we've officially reached magic number season. Magic numbers are essentially a tool for contending teams to look at the stretch, as a countdown towards clinching something, whether it's a playoff spot or a division title. Clinching a spot in the postseason is step one of what the Atlanta Braves hope is many, as their eyes are set on a World Series title.
Making the postseason feels like a formality at this point for the Braves, with their win on Thursday pushing them closer to October. With that in mind, let's take a look at just how close they are to popping the champagne for the first time.
What is the Braves magic number to make the playoffs?
The Braves' magic number is at eight after their win on Thursday. The formula to come up with this, as written by MLB.com, is as follows: "Games remaining +1 - (Losses by second place team - losses by first place team)." The Braves now have 15 games remaining after Thursday's win. The team that's chasing them in the playoff race, the Arizona Diamondbacks, have 69 losses. The Braves have 61 losses. The formula for the Braves is 16 - (69-61). The math for that comes out to eight, and since the Diamondbacks have the tiebreaker over Atlanta, eight is the final magic number.
Of course, getting to the playoffs shouldn't be good enough for a Braves team that should be aiming higher. The Braves have made seven playoff appearances in the last eight years. The expectation should be to win a World Series title, and it'd be easier for them to do so if they can win the NL East.
What is the Braves' magic number to win the NL East?
Splitting their four-game series in Philadelphia over Labor Day Weekend was huge, as it meant the Braves didn't lose any ground on the Philadelphia Phillies in their division title hopes. The Braves did lose a game on Wednesday after their loss against the Rays, but they're still in the driver's seat, with their magic number to clinch the division sitting at 12.
The math for this is quite simple. The Braves have 61 losses compared to Philadelphia's 64, so the formula 16 - (64-61) comes out to 13. The difference in this race, as opposed to their push to clinch a playoff spot is that the Braves hold the tiebreaker over the Phillies. Any combination of 12 Braves wins OR Phillies losses down the stretch will guarantee Atlanta a division title.
MLB Playoff picture: Possible Braves postseason matchups
San Diego Padres/Arizona Diamondbacks
The Braves hold a 3.5-game lead over the Phillies in the NL East, meaning they're likely to win the division and earn a top-three seed in the NL. The ideal outcome would be to earn a top-two seed, but with the Braves currently trailing the Dodgers by 3.5 games in the race for the No. 2 seed, it's more likely they'll stick where they are and play in the Wild Card Series against the worst of the three Wild Card teams.
The San Diego Padres hold the third Wild Card spot right now, but they're only up by 0.5 games over the Diamondbacks, meaning that race could be anyone's to win. If the Braves could pick between the two teams, they'd likely want to play the Diamondbacks more than the Padres. Sure, the Diamondbacks won the season series against Atlanta, but the Padres did as well and have the more talented team. Regardless of who they'd play, it wouldn't be easy for the Braves, even with home-field advantage.
Los Angeles Dodgers
If the Braves were to overtake the Los Angeles Dodgers for the No. 2 seed in the NL, there's a good chance their first postseason series will be against L.A. in the NLDS. It's never ideal to run into the two-time defending champions, but odds are, the Braves would need to overtake them to win the NL Pennant anyway. It's probably better to run into them with home-field advantage and fresh off a bye.
And while the Dodgers would be favored to beat Atlanta, they don't feel as scary this time around. The Braves just swept the Dodgers in late August, and L.A. is dealing with all sorts of injuries, with Shohei Ohtani the latest to hit the IL. Again, the champs will be favored until someone beats them, but the Braves are capable.
Chicago Cubs
If we're going to dream about the Braves leapfrogging the Dodgers for the No. 2 seed, we need to also consider the possibility of things going in the opposite direction. They're in the driver's seat in their division race against the Phillies, but it's far from a given that they'll win the NL East. If they fail to clinch a division title, that'll likely result in a Wild Card Series against the Chicago Cubs.
That'd be a tough series for Atlanta. The Cubs are probably the best defensive team in the sport, led by NL MVP favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong, and they have a lineup as deep as any in the NL. Their pitching staff is suspect, but their defense helps that unit out a lot. We're set to get a preview of a potential postseason series between these two NL clubs later this month, with Atlanta set to play three games at Wrigley Field.
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