The MLB Wild Card round is just a few weeks away, meaning the playoff picture is finally coming into focus. While no team has yet to clinch a playoff spot, the Milwaukee Brewers are expected to be the first to do so in the coming days. How do we know this? Well, it's magic number season of course, and we're tracking it all. Not only are we tracking magic numbers, but also tragic numbers, which details how close a team is to being eliminated from postseason contention.
The American League West, alongside the third Wild Card spots in the AL and NL are the most intriguing races to watch as we enter the home stretch. The Rangers and Astros are battling for the West, while the Guardians and Blue Jays are neck-and-neck for the final AL Wild Card spot. In the NL, the Diamondbacks and Padres are separated by a narrow margin.
The easiest way to keep tabs on how close teams are to clinching is by looking at magic numbers. The formula to calculate a magic number is as follows, per MLB.com:
- Games remaining +1 - (Losses by second place team - losses by first place team)
American League standings: Yankees battle for AL East
As of Sept. 10, 2026, here is the American League playoff picture. We included the Blue Jays, who are only one game back of the Guardians for that third and final Wild Card spot, because of how close that race is. Barring a miraculous finish by Baltimore or Minnesota, the Rangers are the only other team we believe has a realistic shot at sneaking into the postseason; Texas is a few games back of Houston in the AL West and behind Cleveland in the Wild Card hunt.
Team | Record | Games Back |
|---|---|---|
Tampa Bay Rays | 87-59 | -- |
Chicago White Sox | 75-70 | 11.5 |
Houston Astros | 74-72 | 13.0 |
New York Yankees | 83-62 (WC) | 3.5 |
Boston Red Sox | 80-67 (WC) | 7.5 |
Cleveland Guardians | 74-73 (WC) | 13.5 |
Toronto Blue Jays | 73-74 (OUT) | 14.5 |
It was only two weeks ago that we openly wondered whether the AL West champion would barely finish with a winning record. Houston is only nine games away from hitting 82 wins, which would be the lowest by a playoff team (excluding the shortened 2020 season) since the 82-80 Padres in 2005.
If the regular season ended today, here's a look at what the AL Wild Card matchups would look like.
- Bye: (1) Tampa Bay Rays
- Bye: (2) Chicago White Sox
- (3) Houston Astros vs. (6) Cleveland Guardians
- (4) New York Yankees vs. (5) Boston Red Sox
National League standings: Padres in Wild Card position
As of Sept. 10, 2026, here is the National League playoff picture, and things have essentially remained status quo. Milwaukee, Los Angeles, and Atlanta are still fighting it out for the No. 1 seed, and the odd man out will host the No. 6 seed — which is all but guaranteed to be San Diego or Arizona — in the Wild Card Series.
Team | Record | Games Back |
|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers | 91-56 | -- |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 89-57 | 1.5 |
Atlanta Braves | 86-61 | 5.0 |
Philadelphia Phillies | 82-64 | 8.5 |
Chicago Cubs | 81-66 | 10.0 |
San Diego Padres | 78-68 | 12.5 |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 78-69 | 13.0 |
If the regular season ended today, here’s a look at what the NL Wild Card matchups would look like.
Bye: (1) Milwaukee Brewers
Bye: (2) Los Angeles Dodgers
(3) Atlanta Braves vs. (6) San Diego Padres
(4) Philadelphia Phillies vs. (5) Chicago Cubs
MLB magic numbers: Which AL teams are closest to clinching a playoff spot?
As of Sept. 10, 2026, here are the American League’s playoff contenders’ magic numbers needed to clinch a postseason spot. The magic numbers included are just for that team to clinch a playoff spot, not win their division. As for the 'elimination number', that essentially explains itself. The elimination number determines how close a team is from being removed from playoff contention.
Team | Record | Magic number | Elimination number |
|---|---|---|---|
Tampa Bay Rays | 87-59 | 2 | -- |
Chicago White Sox | 75-70 | 14 | -- |
Houston Astros | 74-72 | 15 | -- |
New York Yankees | 83-62 | 6 | -- |
Boston Red Sox | 80-67 | 9 | -- |
Cleveland Guardians | 74-73 | 15 | 17 |
Toronto Blue Jays | 73-74 | -- | 15 |
Texas Rangers | 72-74 | -- | 15 |
Baltimore Orioles | 71-76 | -- | 13 |
Minnesota Twins | 69-77 | -- | 12 |
Seattle Mariners | 68-78 | -- | 11 |
Detroit Tigers | 67-79 | -- | 10 |
Kansas City Royals | 65-82 | -- | 7 |
Athletics | 59-88 | -- | 1 |
Los Angeles Angels | 56-90 | -- | ELIMINATED |
Unfortunately for the rest of the American League, Yankees star Aaron Judge could return from his rib injury within the next few days. The three-time AL MVP has not played since May, and it is unclear whether he will primarily DH when he rejoins the lineup.
MLB magic numbers: Which NL teams are closest to clinching a playoff spot?
There are no major surprises so far as the National League’s magic numbers are concerned, though time is quickly running out for the Marlins and Cardinals.Â
Team | Record | Magic number | Elimination number |
|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers | 91-56 | 3 | -- |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 89-57 | 5 | -- |
Atlanta Braves | 86-61 | 8 | -- |
Philadelphia Phillies | 82-64 | 12 | -- |
Chicago Cubs | 81-66 | 13 | -- |
San Diego Padres | 78-68 | 16 | 17 |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 78-69 | 16 | 16 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 73-73 | -- | 12 |
St. Louis Cardinals | 72-75 | -- | 10 |
Miami Marlins | 72-75 | -- | 10 |
Cincinnati Reds | 69-77 | -- | 8 |
New York Mets | 68-78 | -- | 7 |
Washington Nationals | 67-81 | -- | 4 |
San Francisco Giants | 62-85 | -- | ELIMINATED |
Colorado Rockies | 55-90 | -- | ELIMINATED |
For as bad as the Rockies and Giants have been, they can still avoid hitting the dreaded 100-loss mark. With eight more wins, the Mets will guarantee a non-90-loss season. At this point, you’re just looking for whatever positives you can get.Â
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