It's officially magic number season, when the best teams in baseball start counting down the games until they can pop champagne. And this year, no team has been better than the Milwaukee Brewers, who enter another big series with the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday night with MLB's best record and run differential.
Not surprisingly, that has Pat Murphy and Co. on the doorstep of another trip to October — and another NL Central title to boot. But just how close are the Brewers, and what should fans look for when it comes to playoff seeding and potential October matchups? Here's an up-to-date look at where Milwaukee stands.
What is the Brewers magic number to make the playoffs?
Milwaukee's magic number for a playoff spot — the number of combined wins for the Brewers and losses from the team chasing them — is now down to six. Murphy's club enters play against the Cubs on Tuesday night 12 games clear of the San Diego Padres in the loss column, with 17 games remaining for Milwaukee and 18 for the Padres. (Because San Diego won the season series between the two, a tie in the standings would go their way, hence why the Brewers' magic number is six rather than five.)
Really, though, just making the playoffs isn't nearly enough to satisfy a fan base that's seen its team won bundles of regular-season games — and division titles — in recent years only to fall short in October. The bar for Milwaukee is set at finally winning a pennant for the first time since 1982. And clinching the NL Central for the fourth year in a row would be a big step toward making that a reality.
What is the Brewers magic number to win the NL Central?
The Brewers' magic number in the Central has officially hit single digits: With an eight-game lead over the Cubs with 17 games remaining in the regular season, any combination of nine Milwaukee wins and Chicago losses will give the division to the Crew. Even if the Brewers go 9-8 from here on out, they control their own destiny, meaning another NL Central title is exceedingly likely.
But that doesn't guarantee Milwaukee anything beyond home-field advantage in at least one postseason series. The Brewers also have seeding to worry about, as a dogfight with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves will determine their first playoff opponent — and when that opponent comes. Milwaukee enters play Tuesday with a 1.5-game lead over L.A. for the No. 1 overall seed, and a 3.5-game lead over Atlanta for a first-round bye.
MLB Playoff picture: Possible Brewers postseason matchups
Philadelphia Phillies
Assuming that Milwaukee does hold on to the No. 1 overall seed, that would put them in line to face the winner of the No. 4/No. 5 matchup in the NLDS. And that will almost assuredly mean either the Phillies or the Cubs.
Of the two, you'd have to think the Brewers would want to avoid Philadelphia. Not only has Milwaukee had no real trouble with their interdivision rival this season, but the Phillies also boast a formidable starting rotation in a short series in Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo.
Chicago Cubs
Of course, the Cubs' lineup can carry them all the way through October if they get hot. That said, Milwaukee's pitching staff has had the answers for Pete Crow-Armstrong and Co. so far, and the state of Chicago's pitching staff right now doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
Atlanta Braves
Should the Brewers fall down to the No. 2 seed, they'd still get a bye to the NLDS — only this time, they'd face the winner of the No. 3/No. 6 matchup, which would likely be the Braves against either the D-backs or Padres. Atlanta would be the significant favorite there despite their current rotation woes, as Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson anchor a deep and dangerous lineup. Milwaukee split six games with the Braves during the regular season.
Arizona Diamondbacks/San Diego Padres
The other option, whether Milwaukee winds up at No. 2 or No. 3, would be series against the No. 6 seed in the NL bracket, which at this point is a two-team battle between Arizona and San Diego. The Padres feel like the scarier matchup for the Brewers here, with a dangerous lineup if Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill are locked in and a genuine ace in Michael King. Arizona, meanwhile, has cobbled together pitching from spare parts and lost four of six against Milwaukee this year.
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