Predicting when every MLB division leader will clinch, starting with the Brewers

Labor Day has come and gone, and the magic numbers around Major League Baseball are rapidly shrinking. The Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Tampa Bay Rays can all clinch playoff berths within the next week, and the Brewers could even lock up the division this weekend. 

Time is running out for second-place teams like the Cubs, Yankees, and Phillies to break through and claim the division for themselves. We’ve previously discussed the overall magic numbers, so let’s turn our attention to each division.  

For this list, we’ve ranked each team by their record as of Sept. 8. Therefore, the Brewers are above the Rays despite lists like these typically beginning with the AL East.

NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers (89-56)

Magic number for playoffs: 4

Magic number for division: 9

When will they clinch the division? Sunday, Sept. 13

At this time next week, the Brewers might be calling themselves NL Central champions. Very rarely do we see a division race officially decided by Sept. 15, but that’s a testament to the core that Pat Murphy and Matt Arnold have built in Milwaukee.

Fittingly, Sunday’s game is at home against the NL Central-rival Reds. What better way to lock up the division than by beating a team that just took two of three from you on Labor Day weekend?

NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers (87-57)

Magic number for playoffs: 6

Magic number for division: 8

When will they clinch the division? Tuesday, Sept. 15

The Reds just can’t catch a break. Unlike the Brewers, the Dodgers don’t have a head-to-head against the division’s second-place team — in this case, the 77-68 Diamondbacks — within the coming days. So that’ll push things slightly back, at least as far as the NL West is concerned.

Unfortunately for the Dodgers, it sounds like Shohei Ohtani won’t pitch this postseason. We’ll see whether his knee issues will persist and limit his effectiveness as a designated hitter, though we’re not betting against the four-time MVP in the playoffs. 

AL East: Tampa Bay Rays (85-58)

Magic number for playoffs: 5

Magic number for division: 16

When will they clinch the division? Sept. 22

For once, the Reds escape being the potential victim in a division-clinching game. We instead believe the Rays will lock up the division during a double-header against the Yankees in the Bronx. The head-to-head factor is pivotal here, and the Rays remain on pace for only their fifth AL East title in franchise history.

Aaron Judge’s return could, in theory, help propel the Yankees to their second AL East crown in three years. The three-time AL MVP is expected to play against the Rockies on Tuesday night after missing three-plus months with a rib injury. 

NL East: Atlanta Braves (85-59)

Magic number for playoffs: 8

Magic number for division: 14

When will they clinch the division? Sept. 19

The Braves are more than familiar with a celebratory party in Daikin Park’s visiting clubhouse. Houston was the site of Game 6 of the 2021 World Series, when the Braves captured their first World Series title in nearly 30 years. 

If you bought high on the Braves’ World Series chances, then Chris Sale and Ronald Acuña Jr. should only inspire confidence. Sale has put together another stellar season and could earn first-place Cy Young votes, and the surging Acuña Jr. is ready to finally play in the Fall Classic. Zack Wheeler and the Phillies learned that firsthand last weekend.

AL Central: Chicago White Sox (75-68)

Magic number for playoffs: 15

Magic number for division: 16

When will they clinch the division? Sept. 22

Much like the Brewers and Rays, we’re projecting that the White Sox will lock up the AL Central against a division rival. Although the White Sox and second-place Guardians meet in Cleveland next week, clinching during the Sept. 22-24 series in Kansas City feels far more realistic. 

A belated congratulations to Munetaka Murakami, who recently became the fourth Japanese-born player to hit 30 home runs. He and Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki, who accomplished the feat last year, each look to join Ohtani and Hideki Matsui as 30-home run hitters and World Series champions. 

AL West: Houston Astros (73-71)

Magic number for playoffs: 16

Magic number for division: 16

When will they clinch the division? Sept. 23

Well, we’ve been here before. The Astros are on pace to win their eighth AL West crown since 2017 despite having a losing record at home and a mediocre pitching staff. Credit to Joe Espada’s club, though, for going 26-20 in the second half and wresting the division away from the Rangers. 

The Astros quietly rattled off four consecutive winning months following an 8–18 April, and they’re 3-3 to start September. We’re not sold on Houston as World Series contenders, but the Astros have certainly surprised us in the past.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow