Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong is emerging as a serious threat overtake Shohei Ohtani in the NL MVP chase.
- Advanced metrics and a compelling underdog narrative are pushing the competition closer than many expected.
- The race now hinges on whether traditional counting stats or modern analytics will sway the voters in the final months.
Much like Mike Trout and Barry Bonds before him, Los Angeles Dodgers two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani has reached a point where we as baseball fans have collectively accepted that he is as safe a preseason MVP pick as you’ll find.
And while Ohtani’s offensive numbers are down, he was more than making up for it in pitching before a recent knee injury. But he’s received unexpected competition in the form of Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, who has followed last year’s breakout season with a phenomenal 2026 campaign.
Going into July, Ohtani remained the frontrunner to win his fifth MVP, a feat that only Bonds has achieved. However, PCA is quickly making his case to swipe the award from Ohtani in what could be an extremely tight finish.
Could Pete Crow-Armstrong overtake Shohei Ohtani for the NL MVP?
As of July 26, the FanDuel Sportsbook gives Ohtani -430 odds (bet $100 for a $123.26 payout) to capture the NL MVP. Crow-Armstrong is second at +350 in what is all but assured to be a two-man race; the Nationals’ James Wood is third at +3000.
Over in the American League, the Astros’ Yordan Alvarez leads the pack at -360, with the Rays’ Junior Caminero (+440) the only other AL player with odds greater than +1200.
The advanced metrics certainly favor Crow-Armstrong, who has a heavy lead in both bWAR (6.5 to Ohtani’s 5.6) and fWAR (7.0 to Ohtani’s 5.8); those totals cover Ohtani’s overall WAR as a two-way player rather than solely batting or pitching.
And, whether it’s fair or not, PCA winning the MVP is arguably a better story than Ohtani doing it again. Narratives and traditional counting statistics have determined so many awards, especially MVP and Cy Young, for over a century. Now, those honors are often determined by a mix of narratives and analytics.
Why Pete Crow-Armstrong's Cubs narrative could work in his favor
And to be clear, I’m not complaining. Paul Skenes deserved to win the NL Cy Young Award last year despite finishing with a .500 record. Back in 2005, he’d likely have finished third behind a pitcher with 17 wins and a 3.44 ERA.
We’ve seen Ohtani dominate baseball throughout the 2020s, both before and after joining the Dodgers. There’s no sense of forced obligation to give Ohtani another MVP solely because of his track record.
Ohtani fatigue is a real thing. The two-way superstar won't win NL MVP each and every year he contributes to the Dodgers dynasty. Much is the case in other sports, as well, as LeBron James and Tom Brady were not gifted MVP awards in seasons they arguably deserved the honor. This season, unlike any other, Crow-Armstrong is literally carrying the Cubs to a playoff spot. Chicago is 14 games over .500. If PCA accounts for seven of those wins singularly, he's the difference between the Cubs holding a six-game lead in the NL Wild Card standings and falling out of the race altogether.
Assuming the Cubs make the postseason — and that's looking more likely by the day — Crow-Armstrong will be the paramount reason they reach said expectation. Don't be surprised if PCA receives the NL's top honor as a result.
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