MLB midseason awards ballot: Clear favorites and dark horses for the second half

We've officially reached the All-Star break, and while there will be plenty of baseball for fans to enjoy over the next couple of days, it's also a perfect time to take a breath and take stock of what we just saw in the first half of the season.

And boy, what a first half it was, from surprises in the standings to some of the most spectacular individual performances in recent memory. But which individuals will be holding the hardware when all is said and done? Before the stretch run gets underway, let's make some awards predictions — and explain why we don't think Shohei Ohtani will be taking home a third straight NL MVP trophy.

AL MVP: Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros

• Dark horse: Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals

Technically, Alvarez isn't the AL's leader in fWAR at the moment; that honor goes to Bobby Witt Jr., largely thanks to the latter's spectacular defense at shortstop. But Witt Jr., as sensational as he is, happens to play for a Royals team that's been for all intents and purposes out of the playoff chase since May. He's going to play more than half the season out of the spotlight, and in low-leverage situations — and it's very hard to win hardware that way.

Alvarez, by contrast, has willed the Astros back into the thick of the AL West and AL Wild Card races pretty much by himself. He's also the league leader in wRC+ at the moment by a country mile, and with injury knocking Aaron Judge out of the race, the path is clear for him to stake his claim as the best healthy hitter in the sport right now. That should be enough to get it done.

NL MVP: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs

• Dark horse: James Wood, Washington Nationals

Do not adjust your sets. Yes, Shohei Ohtani has won this award in each of the last two years (and each of the last three, if you include his 2023 AL MVP with the cross-town Angels). His status as a two-way unicorn means that it's more or less impossible for anyone to accrue as much value over the course of a season as long as he's healthy.

The thing is, though, that Ohtani isn't healthy — and he hasn't been for a while. Whether it's a blister issue or his bicep or his knee, it feels like there's been one ailment after the other, to the point where you have to wonder whether his extraordinary workload is finally taking its toll. Given the unique stress he puts on his body, why wouldn't a Dodgers team that's already run away with the NL West treat him with kid gloves until October? It doesn't seem hard to envision L.A. throttling back his efforts on the mound and focusing on getting him to the postseason heathy, which would create more than enough opportunity for Crow-Armstrong to swoop in.

Even when the Cubs were at their worst earlier this season, PCA just kept on hitting. He's behind only Juan Soto, James Wood and Ohtani in wRC+ among qualified NL hitters, and when you combine that with his top-of-the-scale defensive value as the game's best center fielder, you have yourself one heck of a season. The only one who can match Crow-Armstrong's all-around contributions right now is Ohtani — he's lapping every other NL position player in fWAR right now — but chances are we won't see enough of that version of him for it to matter.

AL Cy Young: Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

• Dark horse: Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

This race isn't as much of a shoo-in as you might think, with Sonny Gray coming on strong and Dylan Cease actually leading AL pitchers in fWAR at the moment. In the end, though, Schlittler is the league's ERA leader by a full half a run, and while that doesn't go as far as it used to with more analytically inclined voters, it's hard to argue with — especially considering that he's also second in the American League in innings pitched.

Cease could very well swoop in to steal this award with a hot second half, but don't forget about Messick, either. The young Guardians lefty has been remarkably consistent in Cleveland's rotation, and if he manages to lead a run to an AL Central crown while getting his ERA down below 2.50 or so (he's at 2.73 currently), it won't take much regression to make him a viable candidate despite his lack of eye-popping strikeout numbers.

NL Cy Young: Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

• Dark horse: Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds

Really, could it be anybody else? In a year in which Paul Skenes finally looks mortal, the Miz has been anything but — with a 1.62 ERA and ridiculous 167 strikeouts in 111 innings while flirting with velocity records on a seemingly weekly basis. There is no better show in baseball right now, and the fact that he's doing it for the title-contending Brewers only adds to his awards case. Cristopher Sanchez has been remarkable in his own right, and Burns has the sort of jaw-dropping stuff to put together a truly ridiculous second half and make this a race. Right now, though, Misiorowski is lapping the field.

AL Rookie of the Year: Kevin McGonigle, Detroit Tigers

• Dark horse: Tristan Peters, Chicago White Sox

Messick is coming on strong, but it's hard to imagine how anyone's going to keep McGonigle from taking home an award that's felt like his to lose from the very first time he stepped on an MLB field. He's got a 135 wRC+ with a near-.400 OBP, showcasing a shockingly mature approach at the plate and as-advertised contact skills. Oh, and he's doing it all while thriving at both third base and shortstop, for a team that isn't giving him a ton of lineup help most nights. Peters' hot start and strong center field defense for the White Sox so far make him an intriguing dark horse, but the batted-ball data suggests some offensive regression is coming. McGonigle, meanwhile, looks every bit the star he was billed as in the Minors.

NL Rookie of the Year: JJ Wetherholt, St. Louis Cardinals

• Dark horse: AJ Ewing, New York Mets

Things feel similarly settled in the NL, where Wetherholt leads all rookie position players by nearly two full fWAR. He's been rock solid offensively, showcasing elite on-base ability atop the surprisingly peaky Cardinals lineup, but he's been a revelation with his defense at second base. Add it all up, and you'd be hard-pressed to find a National League rookie who's been anywhere near as impressive. Though it is possible that a pair of Mets, either righty Nolan McLean or center fielder AJ Ewing, fill the void if Wetherholt hits a wall down the stretch. But the latter got a late start to his rookie year, while the former has struggled for consistency.

AL Manager of the Year: Will Venable, Chicago White Sox

• Dark horse: Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays

Let's not overthink this one. In an AL field largely defined by mediocrity, Venable stands out as the clear choice for his work with the White Sox so far this season. To say that nothing was expected of Chicago this season would be a profound understatement. This had been one of the laughingstocks of the league, a perennial lock for at least 100 losses; now, though, they're battling it out atop the AL Central well ahead of schedule, a young team playing with confidence and maturity beyond its years. Plus, Venable doesn't exactly have a playoff-ready pitching staff to work with, making his tactical maneuvering all the more impressive.

NL Manager of the Year: Don Mattingly, Philadelphia Phillies

• Dark horse: Clayton McCullough, Miami Marlins

Is Mattingly the sole reason why the Phillies went from dead in the water under Rob Thomson to threatening the Braves atop the NL East? Obviously not; he's not the one who got Bryce Harper back on track or got Zack Wheeler back healthy. But from 10 games under .500 to the fifth-best record in the NL is one heck of a turnaround, one for which Mattingly deserves at least some credit. Though if the Marlins catch them in the division, look out.

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