The Los Angeles Dodgers acquired Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline to be the final piece of what they hoped would be a third consecutive World Series puzzle. So it's only fitting that Dave Roberts' team will send Skubal to the mound against the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night with a chance to punch their ticket to the postseason — with a little bit of help elsewhere, of course.
After a pretty bumpy month of August, the Dodgers have righted the ship so far in September, winners of eight of their last 10. As a result, their magic number both for clinching a playoff spot and clinching the NL West is getting closer and closer to zero. What work does L.A. have left to do before October arrives? Here's where things stand entering play on Monday, Sept. 14.
What is the Dodgers' magic number to make the playoffs?
The Dodgers' magic number to clinch a postseason spot currently sits at two — meaning that any combination of Los Angeles wins and Arizona Diamondbacks losses will get the job done. The magic number formula is as follows: Games remaining +1 - (Losses by second place team - losses by first place team). At 90-59 entering play on Monday, the Dodgers have 13 games remaining in the regular season. With Arizona currently at 71 losses, that gives you 13 + 1 - 12, which is how we arrive at two.
It's also easy to think about this another way: Even if Los Angeles beats the Reds on Monday to improve to 91-59, they'd still finish at 91-71 if they lost all of their remaining games. Arizona can still match that record (and overtake L.A. by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker), while the Padres, at 81-68, can beat that mark even if they lose to the Colorado Rockies on Monday.
Of course, getting to the playoffs is always cause for celebration, but the bar is realistically much higher for the two-time defending World Series champs. It's three-peat or bust for the Dodgers this season, which means Dave Roberts and Co. will have their sights set on a division title — and, with any luck, a first-round bye in October.
What is the Dodgers' magic number to win the NL West?
With a nine-game lead over San Diego with 13 games to play, plus the head-to-head tiebreaker already secured, the Dodgers' magic number to clinch the NL West sits at four. Any combination of four L.A. wins and four Padres losses would guarantee that San Diego can at best finish with an identical record, and that would clinch the division for the Dodgers thanks to winning the season series.
Winning the NL West would at least ensure that Los Angeles is playing its first playoff series at home. But they'd love for that series to be the NLDS, rather than a best-of-three Wild Card matchup. That means finishing with either the No. 1 or No. 2 overall seed, which has become a three-team dogfight with the Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves. The Dodgers enter Monday in the No. 2 spot, 2.5 games up on Atlanta and 2.5 games back of the Brewers, though they don't hold the tiebreaker against either team.
How the Dodgers can clinch a playoff spot on Monday, Sept. 14
Again, the math is simple for the Dodgers entering play on Monday: Win against the Reds in Cincy and get a loss from the Diamondbacks at home against the Marlins, and you can officially write L.A.'s name in pen.
The Dodgers have to like their chances of at least taking care of the first part of that equation, sending Tarik Skubal to the mound at Great American Ball Park against Cincinnati lefty Nick Lodolo. Can they get the help they need? Miami will throw Sandy Alcantara on Monday against Arizona ace Corbin Burnes, who recently made his season debut after recovering from Tommy John surgery.
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