The Los Angeles Dodgers are one win (or one San Diego Padres loss) away from clinching the NL West crown. That effectively means San Diego is relegated to the Wild Card race, but the Friars still have plenty to play for. With a handful of wins, the Padres can complete their second-half turnaround and carry significant momentum into October.
Let's break down how the Padres can still claim their postseason spot with the divisional race wrapped up.
What is the Padres magic number to make the playoffs?
Here's the equation to determine magic numbers, per MLB.com: Games remaining +1 - (Losses by second place team - losses by first place team). Essentially, we will calculate San Diego's magic number against the current seventh-place team in the National League — the Arizona Diamondbacks — to determine how many combined Padres wins or Diamondbacks losses are required for San Diego to punch their ticket.
The math comes out as such: 11 + 1 - (72-69) = 9. So the Padres need a combined nine wins or D'Backs losses to clinch. Notably, San Diego and Arizona will finish their regular seasons with a three-game series. This race could come down to the literal wire, with both teams competing head-to-head with a postseason perth on the line.
MLB Playoff picture: Possible Padres postseason matchups
Atlanta Braves/Los Angeles Dodgers
If the season ended today, San Diego would occupy the No. 6 seed and travel to face No. 3 Atlanta, the NL East champs, in the Wild Card round. The Braves are 3.0 games behind the Dodgers for the No. 2 seed, however, which means there's a nonzero chance San Diego would end up facing its division rivals on the road — a circumstance the Padres are a little too familiar with.
Either way, San Diego would enter that series as heavy road underdogs, although the Braves' rotation is weak off — and their lineup is cold enough — that San Diego would have an especially strong chance to pull off the upset, should Atlanta remain entrenched in the No. 3 seed.
Philadelphia Phillies/Chicago Cubs
The Padres are currently one game behind fifth-place Philadelphia and 1.5 games behind fourth-place Chicago. Most MLB fans have been penciling the Phillies and Cubs into the No. 4-No. 5 matchup for weeks, but San Diego has more momentum than both teams. The Phillies are dealing with a sudden Jesús Luzardo injury, while their lineup is extremely volatile. The Cubs can hit with anybody, but their pitching is extremely lax.
There's a nonzero chance the Padres climb as high as the No. 4 seed, which would mean hosting either Philadelphia or Chicago in the Wild Card round. More probable, perhaps, is traveling to face one of those teams at the No. 5 seed. In either case, the Padres would be underdogs, but more than capable of winning.
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