We don't want to admit it, but perhaps more than any other sport, baseball is dependent on luck. The pitcher controls where the ball goes, and the batter controls where the bat goes, but after that — well, it's largely up to the gods.
Of course, luck only takes you so far; in the long run, things have a way of evening out and regressing to the mean. What does that mean for the playoff push this year, though? Several October hopefuls feature pitchers who have gotten awfully fortunate so far this season — and if they come crashing back to Earth at the wrong time, it could mean disaster.
MLB's luckiest pitchers by the numbers
To get a sense of which pitchers' top-line numbers aren't exactly lining up with their performance so far, we're turning to Statcast's expected ERA (xERA), which is derived from batted-ball data. Here are the 20 luckiest pitchers in baseball this season as measured by the gap between their xERA and their actual mark.
Pitcher (Team) | Actual ERA | Expected ERA | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
PJ Poulin (WSH) | 2.70 | 5.37 | 2.67 |
Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) | 4.51 | 7.12 | 2.61 |
Shane Bieber (TOR) | 5.11 | 7.43 | 2.32 |
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) | 2.71 | 4.86 | 2.15 |
Zac Thornton (NYM) | 2.52 | 4.60 | 2.08 |
Merrill Kelly (ARI) | 4.88 | 6.94 | 2.06 |
Gordon Graceffo (STL) | 3.04 | 5.09 | 2.05 |
Michael McGreevy (STL) | 3.59 | 5.62 | 2.03 |
Randy Vasquez (SDP) | 4.19 | 6.11 | 1.92 |
Nick Martinez (TB) | 2.65 | 4.57 | 1.92 |
Kyle Finnegan (DET) | 3.42 | 5.19 | 1.77 |
Hoby Milner (CHC) | 3.53 | 5.30 | 1.77 |
Kyle Leahy (STL) | 3.44 | 5.19 | 1.75 |
Yoendrys Gomez (MIN) | 3.29 | 5.02 | 1.73 |
Taylor Clark (ARI) | 2.24 | 3.87 | 1.63 |
Kevin Kelly (TBR) | 2.05 | 3.66 | 1.61 |
Colin Holderman (CLE) | 1.61 | 3.21 | 1.60 |
Troy Melton (DET) | 1.58 | 3.11 | 1.53 |
Ryan Rolison (CHC) | 2.35 | 3.87 | 1.52 |
Clay Holmes (CHC) | 2.39 | 3.90 | 1.51 |
Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals
McGreevy's third-year breakout has been one of the driving forces behind the Cardinals being more competitive than expected this season. But is it sustainable enough for St. Louis to build around him in the rotation moving forward? The data isn't so sure: While McGreevy's ERA is awfully shiny, he's given up tons of hard contact that should result in more runs moving forward. He rarely misses bats, and while he does a pretty good job of limiting walks and keeping balls on the ground, he doesn't do either well enough to explain the disparity here. He profiles as a No. 4 or No. 5 guy at best.
Zac Thornton, New York Mets
Thornton's sensational start to his career has been a rare bright spot amid a lost 2026 for the Mets. But it seems to be mostly driven by batted-ball luck: Thornton has a whiff rate in the ninth percentile, meaning he hardly ever misses bats, and he gives up plenty of loud contact — much of it in the air to the pull side. It's hard to identify anything he does particularly well right now, and the two-plus run gap between his actual ERA and expected ERA points to tougher times ahead.
Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona has rocketed up the NL Wild Card standings in recent weeks, and Rodriguez is among the biggest reasons why, arguably the only starting pitcher the D-backs have been able to rely on regularly. It's been a shocking turnaround for a guy whose ERA began with a 5 in each of the last two years — but a look under the hood suggests that he's much closer to that pitcher than his 2.71 mark this season suggests.
E-Rod has long been a weak-contact machine, using his cutter, change and curveball to keep hitters off-balance. But it's really hard to be this good when you allow this much contact generally, and the biggest difference between 2025 Rodriguez and the 2026 version is that more of those balls are simply finding gloves. He's pulling off a high-wire act right now, but it might not last.
Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays
On first blush, Martinez seems to be in the same boat as a starter without premium velocity who's been able to make it work despite generating tons of balls in play. But there's a reason why the analytically inclined Rays acquired him this offense, and there's reason to think that his success isn't fully captured in the expected numbers.
For starters, Martinez hardly walks anybody, with a walk rate below four percent — among the very best marks in the league. He also generates tons of fly balls, which is an ideal approach for someone in the pitcher's paradise otherwise known as Tropicana Field. I wouldn't recommend someone throwing the bag at him in free agency this winter, but he has a particular set of skills he's able to maximize and a team and defense behind him that have embraced it.
Yoendrys Gómez, Minnesota Twins
Minnesota's bullpen was in desperate need of some stability when Gomez — a 26-year-old on his fifth team in the last two years — suddenly blossomed into a shut-down closer, notching 15 saves over 39 appearances with a 1.82 ERA. I'm not sure it's the most sustainable approach, though: His sweeper is an effective bat-misser, but his fastball is giving up tons of hard-hit fly balls that haven't showed up in the top-line numbers yet. Add in a double-digit walk rate and, well, this Cinderella story might not end well.
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