Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The 2026 MLB All-Star Game rosters reveal several surprising omissions and inclusions when evaluated by Wins Above Replacement metrics.
- One player leads all full-time position players in both bWAR and fWAR but was left off the starting lineup, highlighting a major oversight.
- Key offensive performers have been overlooked in favor of players with weaker statistical cases, sparking debate about the selection process.
The 2026 MLB All-Star Game rosters are out, and they’re nearly as flawed as always.
In fairness, outside of Blue Jays second baseman Ernie Clement, most of the elected starters are deserving. The keyword, though, is most, because there are some glaring issues in both the National and American Leagues.
Today, let’s look at each starting lineup and determine who should have started, using both bWAR and fWAR. Although I personally prefer Baseball-Reference’s Wins Above Replacement system, I always find it interesting to compare the two metrics.
American League All-Star Game starters, organized by WAR
Let’s start off with the American League, and we really need to talk about the outfield.
Position | Who is starting? | Who should be starting? | bWAR | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
C | Shea Langeliers, Athletics | Shea Langeliers, Athletics | Langeliers, 3.0 bWAR | 2.1 fWAR |
1B | TBD (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has withdrawn because of injury) | Nick Kurtz, Athletics | Guerrero: 0.8 bWAR; Kurtz, 3.7 bWAR | Guerrero, 0.9 fWAR; Kurtz, 3.4 fWAR |
2B | Ernie Clement, Toronto Blue Jays | Cole Young, Seattle Mariners | Clement, 1.2 bWAR; Young, 2.8 bWAR | Clement, 1.0 fWAR; Young, 1.3 fWAR |
3B | Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays | Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays | Caminero, 3.7 bWAR | Caminero, 3.1 fWAR |
SS | Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals | Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals | Witt, 4.7 bWAR | Witt, 4.7 fWAR |
OF | Aaron Judge, New York Yankees | Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox | Judge, 2.1 bWAR; Rafaela, 3.6 bWAR | Judge, 2.1 fWAR; Rafaela, 2.7 fWAR |
OF | Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins | Cody Bellinger, New York Yankees | Buxton, 3.1 bWAR; Bellinger, 3.5 bWAR | Buxton, 2.9 fWAR; Bellinger, 2.5 fWAR |
OF | Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels | Wilyer Abreu, Boston Red Sox | Trout, 2.8 bWAR; Abreu, 3.2 bWAR | Trout, 2.5 fWAR; Abreu, 1.8 fWAR |
DH | Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros | Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros | Alvarez, 4.1 bWAR | Alvarez, 4.2 bWAR |
SP | TBD | Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees | Schlittler, 3.5 bWAR | Schlittler, 3.2 fWAR |
Enough has been said about Clement’s election, so I’m not going to beat a dead moose — er, horse. Young’s counting stats aren’t especially impressive, and the American League’s second base spot has really suffered from Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s underwhelming, frustrating 2026 campaign.
I’ll give the Judge and Trout elections a slight pass given their reputations, though the former is slightly more egregious considering Judge hasn’t played since the end of May. He’ll certainly be replaced, and it’s unclear whether Trout will suit up next week.
Although Bellinger only has a .774 OPS, he's provided the Yankees with stability and versatility. His lack of power (11 home runs) is concerning, though, given that he plays his home games with the Yankee Stadium short porch.
The fact that Detroit's Riley Greene made it over Rafaela and Abreu is laughable. Greene has been fine, but Rafaela is tied for No. 10 in bWAR, and Abreu is one of only 20 players with at least 3.2 bWAR. Compare that to Greene, who has been worth 2.1 bWAR, but has a vastly superior OPS (.854) to Rafaela and Abreu.
National League All-Star Game starters, organized by WAR
Now, let’s turn our attention to the National League.
Position | Who is starting? | Who should be starting? | bWAR | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
C | Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves | Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies | Baldwin, 1.6 bWAR; Goodman, 2.4 bWAR | Baldwin, 1.3 fWAR; Goodman, 2.1 fWAR |
1B | Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers | Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves | Freeman, 2.7 bWAR; Olson, 2.9 bWAR | Freeman, 2.9 fWAR; Olson, 2.8 fWAR |
2B | Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves | JJ Wetherholt, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals | Albies, 1.8 bWAR; Wetherholt, 4.2 bWAR | Albies, 1.8 fWAR; Wetherholt, 3.8 fWAR |
3B | Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers | Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers | Muncy, 3.4 bWAR | Muncy, 3.1 fWAR |
SS | CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals | Otto Lopez, Miami Marlins | Abrams, 2.6 bWAR; Lopez, 4.6 bWAR | Abrams, 2.2 fWAR; Lopez, 4.4 fWAR |
OF | Andy Pages, Los Angeles Dodgers | Andy Pages, Los Angeles Dodgers | Pages, 4.1 bWAR | Pages, 2.8 fWAR |
OF | Brandon Marsh, Philadelphia Phillies | Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals | Marsh, 2.0 bWAR; Walker, 3.4 bWAR | Marsh, 1.7 fWAR; Walker, 2.4 fWAR |
OF | Juan Soto, New York Mets | Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs | Soto, 2.8 bWAR; Crow-Armstrong, 5.2 bWAR | Soto, 2.8 fWAR; Crow-Armstrong, 5.5 fWAR |
DH | Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers | Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers | Ohtani, 2.7 bWAR | Ohtani, 2.8 fWAR |
SP | TBD | Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies | Sánchez, 5.7 bWAR | Sánchez, 4.3 fWAR |
I was initially hesitant to call Crow-Armstrong’s omission a greater mistake than Clement’s election, but PCA has been incredible. He's well on pace for a 30-30 season, and a second-half surge could propel him into the 40-40 club. He leads all full-time position players (not counting Shohei Ohtani) in both bWAR and fWAR. How would that not warrant an All-Star Game start?
Lopez is hitting .346 with 25 doubles, 17 stolen bases, and an .896 OPS for the surging Marlins. Abrams has the edge in extra-base hits, but the differences in Wins Above Replacement tell the full story.
The same goes for Wetherholt vs. Albies, who likely benefited from the Braves sitting atop the NL East. Wetherholt has a .680 OPS at 23 years old, and he’s played a pivotal role in the Cardinals’ ascent up the National League standings.
I’m just still stuck on Crow-Armstrong not being an All-Star Game starter. What are we doing here?
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