Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The NL West heads into its second half with the Dodgers dominant and every other team struggling below .500.
- One veteran manager faces mounting pressure as his contract nears its final months, with the front office weighing tough decisions.
- A star slugger's power numbers have dipped unexpectedly, raising questions about workload management as his team coasts toward a division title.
Unsurprisingly, the Los Angeles Dodgers run the National League West, though few would have imagined the rest of the division being this ugly.
None of the NL West’s other four teams enter July 4 weekend with a winning record. The Giants have been a colossal train wreck on and off the field, while the Diamondbacks and Padres have hovered around .500 all season. The Rockies, to their credit, are on pace to surpass last year’s win total before the end of July.
Heading into the season’s second half, we have some bold NL West predictions to make.
NL East standings entering July 3
Team | Record | Games Back |
|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Dodgers | 57-31 | -- |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 43-43 | 13.0 |
San Diego Padres | 43-43 | 13.0 |
San Francisco Giants | 36-50 | 20.0 |
Colorado Rockies | 35-53 | 22.0 |
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Prediction: Torey Lovullo gets fired before season’s end
Lovullo is one of baseball’s longest-tenured managers, having held his position since 2017. However, the Diamondbacks have only reached the playoffs twice with him at the helm, with the first instance coming in his rookie season. At what point does Arizona decide they’ve had enough and move on?
Lovullo is reportedly in the final year of his contract, so the Diamondbacks could let him play out the string and simply forgo extending him. Either way, I’m skeptical he’ll be managing this team come Opening Day 2027.
Colorado Rockies
- Prediction: The Rockies avoid 90 losses
At 35-53, the Rockies are on pace to finish with a win total in the high 60s, an incredible feat considering last year’s 43-119 finish. They haven’t lost fewer than 90 games since 2021, when they went 74-81.
Why not take the chance here and suggest the Rockies could win at least 73 games? All it takes is a hot week, and they’ve already shown enough to make fans think they’ll avoid another 100-loss season. I won’t go so far as to suggest the Rockies are anywhere close to competing for a playoff berth, but they’ve at least made short-term progress.
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Prediction: Shohei Ohtani finishes with fewer than 30 home runs
Ohtani sits at 18 home runs and is on pace for his fewest since 2022, when he hit 34 for the Angels. Granted, he’s still on pace for his fourth consecutive MVP award and fifth in five years, so the relative power outage isn’t a huge problem.
Knowing Ohtani, he’ll probably ride a second-half surge to another 40-home run season, but I’ll take the risk here and say he finishes just short. I’m more interested in seeing if the Dodgers consider giving him additional rest if they continue to run away with the NL West and the NL’s top playoff seed.
San Diego Padres
- Prediction: Trade rumors around Fernando Tatis Jr. ramp up
Tatis ranks among baseball’s most disappointing players, carrying just a .722 OPS and 0.8 bWAR into July 4 weekend. Consider that he averaged 4.6 bWAR, 52 extra-base hits and an .803 OPS from 2023-25.
I’ve admittedly been harsh on Tatis at times, largely because I do not believe he can elevate the Padres the way a legitimate franchise player should. That said, a divorce makes sense if San Diego considers a reboot, especially with Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts rapidly declining and essentially untradable.
Tatis is roughly halfway through his 14-year, $340 million contract, which carries him through 2034. Although I don’t expect him to be dealt before the trade deadline, I do believe we’ll start hearing talk of a move this offseason.
San Francisco Giants
- Prediction: Buster Posey steps down or takes a different role
As I’ve said before, the only way I see Posey losing his job as the Giants’ lead baseball executive is if he chooses to do so. San Francisco wouldn’t dare risk the public relations hit of firing one of the greatest players in franchise history only months before he’s potentially elected to the Hall of Fame.
There’d be no shame in Posey deciding that running a baseball team isn’t for him, and it’s a decision Giants fans would likely welcome. The Rafael Devers trade has been a colossal bust, and Willy Adames hasn’t met expectations. There’s also the disastrous Tony Vitello hire, one that feels destined to end in his dismissal within the coming months (if not sooner).
Posey has enough good will around the Giants that he could easily transition into an advisor or special assistant role. But recent weeks, including the Pride Night controversy, have shown that Posey staying in his current position is untenable.
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