If St. Louis Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt and Cincinnati Reds infielder Sal Stewart’s summers are a preview of the future, then the National League Central is about to become baseball’s most exciting division.
Wetherholt and Stewart have spent much of the year neck-and-neck for NL Rookie of the Year, though the latter has emerged as the heavy favorite in more ways than one. Less than two weeks before his 24th birthday, Wetherholt landed on the injured list with right wrist tendinitis.
Despite being five games back in the NL Wild Card race, Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said he expects Wetherholt to play again this year. The former West Virginia standout is hitting .242 with 17 home runs, 48 RBIs, and a .713 OPS in nearly 600 plate appearances. However, his 4.6 bWAR leads the overachieving Cardinals, who at 68-70 could finish with a winning record despite a negative run differential.
Stewart entered play on Monday batting .266 with 31 home runs, a league-leading 105 RBIs, and an .826 OPS in 595 plate appearances. He and Cardinals outfielder Alec Burleson are the only players who have recorded 100 RBIs.
Sal Stewart has all but officially clinched the NL Rookie of the Year over JJ Wetherholt
The DraftKings Sportsbook expects Stewart to run away with Rookie of the Year, listing him as a -650 favorite (bet $100 for a $115.38 payout) as of Aug. 31. Mets pitcher Nolan McLean is a distant second at +750, and Wetherholt has dropped to +1200, tied for third with Mets outfielder Carson Benge.
Wetherholt acknowledged that he’d been working through the wrist injuries for roughly a month, which aligns with his second-half slump; he’s batting only .201 with a .618 OPS since the All-Star Break. Interestingly, Wetherholt has drawn 23 walks and struck out 31 times in 179 second-half plate appearances, so he’s not pressing or desperately trying to make contact.
Those who heavily rely on advanced statistics will correctly note that Wetherholt’s 4.6 bWAR is double Stewart’s 2.3, and it’s worth noting that the Cardinals have a better record than the Reds. Whether you believe team success should factor into Rookie of the Year is a matter of preference, as is the case with sabermetrics and traditional counting stats.
Stewart has already topped 31 homers and 100 RBIs, though, and this isn’t a Chris Davis or Adam Dunn situation. For the younger readers, that means that he’s not a home run-or-bust hitter, and his 21.8 strikeout percentage is right in line with the 22.1 percent league average.
Infielder Jonathan India is the most recent Reds player to capture Rookie of the Year, taking home the award in 2021. The Cardinals have not had a Rookie of the Year winner since Albert Pujols in 2001.
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