Predicting every major MLB award race heading into September

Baseball’s awards season doesn’t come until November when the Baseball Writers Association of America releases the voting results once the postseason ends.

However, ballots are due by Sept. 28, the day between the conclusion of the regular season and the beginning of the playoffs. With that deadline one month and one day away, here are predictions on who will win the awards.

AL MVP: Yordan Alvarez, Astros

Alvarez has put himself in a position to be the first triple-crown winner since 2012, which helps him overcome the voter bias against designated hitters.

Alvarez leads the American League with a .322 batting average and 36 home runs, while his 91 RBIs are tied for first with Baltimore Orioles first baseman Pete Alonso. The Astros also lead the AL West despite a 66-67 record.

Tampa Bay third baseman Junior Caminero has 35 homers and 84 RBIs while leading the Rays to the top of the AL East. He is Alvarez’s biggest competition.

Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. tops the AL with 6.2 bWAR and 6.3 fWAR. Yet that hasn’t been enough to lift his team out of the AL Central basement.

NL MVP: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs

The Chicago Cubs center fielder is the most exciting player in the major leagues and has statistics worthy of the National League MVP award.

Crow-Armstrong has played a major role in the Cubs being on top of the NL wild card standings, as he is second in the league in stolen bases (32), fourth in home runs (33), and fifth in RBIs (93). Crow-Armstrong’s 7.9 bWAR and 8.6 fWAR lead the major leagues, and he has 14 defensive runs saved.

Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani can make a strong case to win this award for a third straight season. He is hitting .288/.388/.546 with 30 homers and 10 steals at the plate for the NL West leaders and is 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA in 14 starts on the mound.

Miami Marlins shortstop Otto Lopez’s .308 batting average is second in the NL, and he is fourth with 29 stolen bases. Yet it’s a two-person race between Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani.

AL Cy Young: Award: Cam Schlittler, Yankees

If this were a political election, it likely wouldn’t be decided until the wee hours of the morning.

Schlittler leads the AL with a 2.16 ERA, and Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Dylan Cease is second with a 2.37 mark. Cease tops the league with 209 strikeouts, and Schlitter is third with 193.

As far as records, Schlittler is 11-6, and Cease is 8-5. Schlittler’s double-digit victories are the tiebreaker.

Boston Red Sox right-hander Sonny Gray is 16-4 and leads the AL in victories, and his 2.82 ERA is fourth, but he is a notch below Schlittler and Cease.

NL Cy Young Award: Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers ace has been overpowering in his first full major-league season. Misiorowski will likely be overpowering in the voting, too.

Misiorowski’s 1.68 ERA is more than half a run better than anyone else in the NL, and his 216 strikeouts pace the league. Furthermore, Misiorowski has a 13-5 record for the first-place team in the NL Central.

Atlanta Braves left-hander Chris Sale is second in ERA with a 2.20 mark, which belies his 12-9 record. The Braves lead the NL East, and Sale is the leader of an injury-plagued rotation.

Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sanchez tops the NL in wins with his 16-4 record and ranks third with 194 strikeouts and fifth with a 2.62 ERA. However, in 2026, nobody beats The Miz.

AL Rookie of the Year: Kevin McGonigle, Tigers

The left-side infielder established himself as a strong contender for the award quickly, as he had four hits against the San Diego Padres on opening day.

Despite just turning 22 earlier this month is second in the AL in bWAR (6.0) and fourth in fWAR (4.7). McGonigle is hitting .278/.379/.423 with 14 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 129 games.

First baseman Munetaka Murakami’s 29 home runs have helped the surprising Chicago White Sox to the top of the AL Central standings and are fourth in the league. Cleveland Guardians right-hander Parker Messick is 10-8, but his 2.50 ERA stands fourth in the AL.

NL Rookie of the Year: JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals

This race is a close call between Wetherholt, the St. Louis Cardinals’ second baseman, and Cincinnati Reds infielder Sal Stewart.

The stat that stands out the most is Stewart’s MLB-leading 100 RBIs. However, the Rookie of the Year voting panel often consists of younger writers who have grown up with advanced metrics and could be swayed by Wetherholt’s 4.8 bWAR and 4.5fWAR. Both figures lead NL rookies.

New York Mets right fielder Carson Benge has quietly had a fine first season, hitting 16 home runs and stealing 19 bases.

AL Manager of the Year: Will Venable, White Sox

Venable is the only choice. The White Sox have gone from laughingstocks, who lost at least 101 games each of the last three seasons, to division leaders with a 70-63 record.

Chad Tracy has done a marvelous job in leading the Red Sox to a 63-43 record since replacing the fired Alex Cora on April 26. Kevin Cash has worked wonders in leading the low-budget Rays to the top of an AL East filled with big spenders.

NL Manager of the Year: Walt Weiss, Braves

The Braves promoted Weiss from bench coach over the winter to replace Brian Snitker, and Atlanta is 78-55 after going 76-86 last season. Weiss is no stranger to awards as he was the AL Rookie of the Year in 1988 as the Athletics’ shortstop.

Pat Murphy won this award each of the last two seasons and has the Brewers in position to win a fourth straight division title. Don Mattingly began his first season with the Phillies as bench coach but became manager on April 27 when Rob Thomson was fired, and Philadelphia has since gone 65-41.

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