Having the most talent certainly goes a long way toward winning a World Series — just ask the billion-dollar Dodgers and their two straight rings. But recent history also tells us that this is hardly the only thing that goes into which team's left standing at the end of October. Sometimes it's simply about who's got the best vibes, baby.
So, in that spirit, we've decided to check in on how things are feeling with the 14 most likely postseason contenders across both the AL and NL. This isn't simply a measure of who's playing the best at the moment (though that does help) or which roster we think is deepest. It's a highly unscientific measurement of how things feel around the clubhouse, and how that might project toward a potential playoff run.
14. Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona refuses to say die, taking consecutive series from the Reds and Cubs to stay right on San Diego's heels in the race for the final NL Wild Card spot. And yet, this front office did next to nothing at the trade deadline, and while Corbin Burnes and Ketel Marte should both be back soon ... well, let's just say Marte's return isn't as simple as his production would suggest. This feels like an awfully combustible situation for a team that doesn't have the talent of its peers.
13. Houston Astros
Houston is technically leading its division ight now, but if you'd like to know what the internal temperature is, look no further than owner Jim Crane's decision to fire GM Dana Brown and leave manager Joe Espada twisting in the wind. This remains a formidable lineup but a very incomplete roster, the creakiness of which lends a real Last Dance feeling to the proceedings. This feels much more like the end of a dying dynasty than the beginning of a World Series push, and the players are aware of that as much as anybody.
12. Seattle Mariners
Hey, just a couple weeks or so ago, Seattle would've been dead last on this list, so ... improvement? Series wins over the Cubs, Phillies and Astros have helped right the ship a bit, as has the triumphant return of Big Dumper. The state of the AL Wild Card race and the talent in that clubhouse should have the Mariners believing in themselves. Still, the starting pitching has begun to spring some leaks of late, and this has still been a tremendously disappointing season overall. We're going to need to see at least a couple more weeks of strong play before we buy back in.
11. Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians finally did something meaningful at the trade deadline, and they've been rewarded with a six-game winning streak and eight wins in their last 10 to hop back into sole possession of a Wild Card spot. Granted, the relative lack of investment from ownership and the front office here has to take its toll eventually, Jo Adell trade aside, and the ceiling feels pretty clear. But a team that was once as dead as a doornail has at least given promise of another pesky postseason run, and that's something.
10. Atlanta Braves
Perhaps this seems harsh for a team with the fourth-best record in baseball, but well ... go ask a Braves fan how they're currently feeling about their team's pennant chances. They're 7-10 and in their last 17 games, including series losses to the Twins, D-backs, Brewers and Yankees, and it doesn't seem like the pitching cavalry will be coming any time soon — all of which puts Alex Anthopoulos' all-too-quiet deadline into sharp relief. You can bet that doubt has trickled into the clubhouse, too, and it's hard to see this team as October-ready at the moment.
9. San Diego Padres
Yes, San Diego is still just the No. 6 seed in the NL. But they're gaining ground on the Phillies, and more importantly for this exercise, the vibes have shifted immeasurably. Fernando Tatis Jr. is once again swatting dingers and flipping bats. Star teammates like Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado have finally warmed up, too, while Robbie Ray and Casey Mize have at least stabilized the rotation somewhat. This team has never lacked for confidence, and the more they rack up wins, the less anyone will want to face those big bats and that bullpen in a short series.
8. New York Yankees
You could go either way with the Yankees right now, really. On the one hand, they've been offensively inept for months now, their overtaxed bullpen is beginning to spring leaks left and right around closer David Bednar and division rivals in Tampa and Boston are only getting stronger. On the other, Max Fried and Aaron Judge are progressing toward returns in September, and whatever else you want to say about Aaron Boone, he's always managed to keep things from spiraling out of control internally. All of which gets us to somewhere around the middle of the pack, fitting for a team with World Series upside but a penchant for public embarrassment.
7. Chicago Cubs
Objectively speaking, the Cubs are in pretty decent shape, 14-10 in August and a healthy 44-30 since the start of June. And yet, will this fan base ever be angst-free? Certainly not with a pitching staff that can't stay off the IL, as it seems increasingly likely Chicago's postseason rotation will be without Edward Cabrera, Justin Steele and Ben Brown in addition to Cade Horton. When this team is rolling, there are few like it, but we're also one bad series away from everyone calling for Craig Counsell's job again.
6. Chicago White Sox
Chicago would've been a whole lot higher on this list even a few weeks ago. But Chris Getz's deadline looked questionable at the time and has since devolved into disaster due to injury, and the young White Sox are just 11-12 this month — a mark that could be worse were it not for a couple miraculous walk-off wins against the Mets. Yes, they're just happy to be here to some extent, and any big-game experience will only help a young team moving forward. But things have begun to wobble just a bit, and you have to wonder whether that's inexperience showing up at the wrong time.
5. Tampa Bay Rays
Every time it seems like the Rays might be about to falter, they find a way to right the ship, no matter how uninspiring their roster might seem on paper. If that isn't a sign of a mentally resilient team, I'm not sure what is, and at this point they have to be considered comfortable favorites to finish atop the American League standings. Their flaws might loom large in October, but they always believe they can find a way to win whatever game they're in.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers will never lack for confidence; winning two straight World Series grants you that at the very least. But, much as they were at points last year, things aren't feeling all that assured for the best team that money can buy. Sure, the returns of Tyler Glasnow and soon Shohei Ohtani to the rotation will do wonders, and they're a pretty good bet to get a bye to the NLDS, where they'll once again be favorites to reach the Fall Classic. It's not hard to come up with ways they might lose a postseason series, though, and Dave Roberts has some work to do to fix a creaky lineup and patch up a leaky bullpen. Oh, and there's also the whole "ownership embroiled in financial crisis" thing, too.
3. Boston Red Sox
Boston has won five in a row and seven of eight, and at this point it's not crazy to think that they might both win the AL East and wind up as the league's top seed come October — especially with Roman Anthony nearing a return from his lengthy stay on the IL and Garrett Crochet looming as a potential bullpen weapon. Whatever Chad Tracy has helped find in this clubhouse is clearly working, and the vibes are immaculate no matter what Willson Contreras and Jarren Duran might do or say next.
2. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers fans have adopted a well-earned cynicism towards this team's chances in October, I get it. Within the clubhouse, though, this team sure seems unshakable, fighting through a myriad of pitching injuries to just keep on winning baseball games. Cooper Pratt dustup aside, Pat Murphy knows how to get the best out of his squad, and Jacob Misiorowski, Kyle Harrison and Logan Henderson taking the ball three out of every five days sure helps boost your confidence. There's a ceiling to the vibes until they finally break through in the postseason, but it's hard not to give into believing in the Brew Crew.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Is that Robyn we hear in the distance? Because it sure is feeling an awful lot like Red October lately. Philly had their nine-game winning streak snapped in Seattle this week, but they bounced back with a commanding win on Wednesday afternoon, and the arrow is still pointing squarely up (well, as long as Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler can get back on track soon). Several of those wins came in hilariously improbable fashion, which has given the Phils the whiff of a team of destiny. We've seen what can happen at Citizens Bank Park when this team gets rolling.
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