Major League Baseball’s free agency lacks the instant gratification seen in the NFL and NBA, and the looming threat of a lockout won’t help fans get too excited, either. Who cares which team signs Tarik Skubal if he won’t report to spring training until some point next summer?
Whether we’d instead refer to that period as “summer training” is a separate discussion. Instead, let’s talk about which free agents have, through their own performances, drastically hurt their value in a contract year.
For this list, we’re focusing solely on pending free agents and those without player options. Mets infielder Bo Bichette has been a mixed bag for one of the most disappointing teams in franchise history, but he can either test free agency or exercise a $42 million opt-in clause. Common sense suggests his decision should be fairly obvious.
We’ve also included a “best fit” for each player, though we projected that only one will stay with their current team. Any guesses?
Casey Mize, RHP, San Diego Padres
Mize had a career-low 2.70 ERA through 16 starts with the Tigers, which perfectly positioned him to land an eight-figure contract this winter. However, he's managed an ugly 6.64 ERA over nine starts with the Padres, and he's walked 17 hitters in 40.2 innings.
If that sounds ugly, keep in mind that Mize allowed only 65 free passes in 251.1 innings from 2024-25. We’re not sure how much a strong postseason could realistically boost his stock.
Best fit: Tampa Bay Rays
Assuming that Freddy Peralta (more on him shortly) signs elsewhere, Mize is an adequate backup plan. He should come relatively cheap, and we know how much the Rays love their bargains. Don’t be surprised when he’s wearing a Tampa Bay uniform during next summer’s All-Star Game.
Freddy Peralta, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
In fairness to Peralta, he's pitched far better since joining the Rays ahead of the trade deadline. Whether it's escaping the dysfunctional Mets or the overall New York media market is up for debate, but the two-time All-Star should still command a multi-year deal on the open market. Will anyone feel comfortable giving him over $100 million, though?
Best fit: Boston Red Sox
No, this doesn’t mean we expect the Red Sox to give Peralta $120 million over four seasons. Sonny Gray has hinted he’s open to retiring, and Boston has proven they’re willing to spend in free agency. Besides, signing Peralta means that none of the other AL East teams can have him, and that in itself could be a massive victory.
Our greatest concern, though, involves something far deeper than ERA or media markets. Peralta's 22.1 strikeout percentage with the Mets was considerably below his lifetime 28.6 average, and it's since dipped to 19.9 percent. Hmmm.
Jameson Taillon and Shane Bieber, RHPs, Toronto Blue Jays
We’re lumping these two together because both suffered season-ending injuries in their contract years. Taillon went down with right forearm tightness and recurring elbow inflammation earlier this month, though there is no indication he won’t be ready for spring training. He had a 5.65 ERA over 86 innings with the Cubs and Blue Jays.
As for Bieber, the 2020 AL Cy Young winner went 5-2 with a 4.37 ERA in 55.2 innings over 11 starts. He's pitched just 108 innings since the start of 2024, and both are looking at one-year contracts.
Best fit: Toronto Blue Jays for Taillon; New York Mets for Bieber
Realistically, it’d be hard to fault the Blue Jays if they're tempted to bring Taillon and Bieber back. For the sake of conversation, we’ll project they stick with Taillon, largely because it’s incredibly difficult to have any faith in Bieber staying healthy.
That said, the Mets must add another veteran starter this offseason. Peralta and Clay Holmes are obviously gone, and Kodai Senga is likely facing a trade or a permanent move to the bullpen.
Jonathan India, 2B, Kansas City Royals
Can a Rookie of the Year winner be a bust? Serious question. India impressed with an .835 OPS, 21 home runs and 4.1 bWAR back in 2021, and he's since come nowhere close to meeting the expectations of a No. 5 overall pick. If that sounds harsh, consider that he managed only 3.1 bWAR and a .719 OPS from 2022-25, and not even a move to the Royals put his career back on track.
India, who turns 30 in December, missed nearly the entire season with left shoulder surgery. Teams surely won’t be lining up outside his door with eight-figure offers.
Best fit: Detroit Tigers
Detroit cannot offer Gleyber Torres the qualifying offer for a second straight year, so the Tigers might need a new starting second baseman. India has almost exclusively played there or manned the DH spot in his six seasons. This sure sounds like a match to us.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B, New York Yankees
Although the Yankees can offer Chisholm the qualifying offer, we’re skeptical he’d immediately take it. Even dating back to last year, it’s felt like he and general manager Brian Cashman aren’t exactly kindred spirits.
Chisholm’s .717 OPS is well below his lifetime .760 average, and he’s again faced questions regarding his maturity. For the record, it feels like most of those complaints are tired repeats of what we heard five years ago. There are far worse players, on and off the field, than a 28-year-old second baseman with a healthy mix of power and speed.
Best fit: San Diego Padres
Not only would signing Chisholm help Fernando Tatis Jr. move back to right field, but it’d arguably put the former in a far more comfortable setting. The Padres are an organization that has embraced individualism, and the veteran slugger certainly has never been afraid to showcase his enthusiasm. John Smoltz and old-school baseball fans would hate this sight, which is even more reason to hope for such a marriage.
Trent Grisham, CF, New York Yankees
Grisham is living proof of why you don’t look a gift pinstripe-wearing horse in the month. Rather than test free agency last winter, the two-time Gold Glover agreed to play on the $22 million qualifying offer.
The preseason consensus was Grisham wouldn’t match last year’s 34-homer output, and this year’s power reduction likely killed his chances of netting a noteworthy contract. Interestingly, his 18.4 percent strikeout rate is easily the best of his career, and his .703 OPS isn’t too far below the .718 league average.
Best fit: Cincinnati Reds
Have you seen their outfield depth? Grisham shouldn’t be overly expensive, and he’d bring further power to an intriguing Reds lineup. He’s also familiar with the NL Central, having begun his career with the Brewers.
But remember: Grisham has almost exclusively played center field in recent years, so we suggest the Reds — or whoever else signs him — give him corner outfield reps during spring training.
Zac Gallen, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Gallen is an odd pick for our list, but we view it as a book-end of sorts. We spent last offseason repeatedly advocating for numerous contenders to take a chance on Gallen, even if it came in the form of a one-year, prove-it deal.
Well, the other 29 teams reminded us to stick to our day jobs. He’s given the Diamondbacks a 6.12 ERA and -1.7 bWAR — tied for the second-worst among any pitcher league-wide — over 104.1 innings. Gone are the days of him racking up strikeouts against above-average offenses, and opponents are hitting .300 with an .859 OPS.
For what it’s worth, Derek Jeter averaged .317 with an .844 OPS from 2000-09. Yikes.
Best fit: Baltimore Orioles
Gallen turned 31 in August, but we imagine he’s nonetheless looking at an invite to spring training. Could he earn another prove-it deal with a guaranteed spot on the Opening Day roster? Sure. Regardless, the Orioles need pitching depth, and he’s worth a flier.
What’s the worst case scenario? Gallen is awful in spring training and doesn’t last long at Triple-A? Call it bias, but we believe Baltimore should take the risk and hope for the best.
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