Tarik Skubal is arguably the best pitcher in the sport, and is sure to be paid like it this offseason. ESPN's Jeff Passan went as far as to say he could get "double" Stephen Strasburg's seven-year, $245 million deal, provided there's no salary cap instituted. He says Skubal could be getting paid $50 million annually on his next deal. Is Skubal worth that? Sure. Again, an argument can be made that there's nobody better in the sport right now. Teams should be going above and beyond to try to secure him for nothing more than money (albeit a lot of it).
Is that really going to happen, though? Is Skubal really going to earn over $400 and possibly $500 million in free agency? I'd argue no. Here's every reason why.
Tarik Skubal has a concerning injury history
Pitcher injuries are becoming more and more common, and that alone makes doling out massive deals to pitchers risky. It's even riskier to hand out lengthy and expensive deals to pitchers with lengthy and concerning injury histories like Skubal.
Skubal missed over a month this season with loose bodies in his pitching elbow. He made a much faster recovery than expected and has pitched extremely well since being activated off the IL, but that's just the latest of the injuries he's had to deal with. Skubal also underwent Tommy John Surgery while pitching at Seattle University in 2017 and underwent flexor tendon surgery in 2022. Those are three major pitching injuries Skubal has had to come back from.
He's recovered each time and is still at the top of his game, but how willing will teams be to give him such a massive contract, knowing that another injury could be coming at any moment? It's a lot easier to bet on pitchers who don't have this kind of injury history than the ones who do.
Tarik Skubal will be 30 years old by 2027 Opening Day
The injury history is one factor, but it's important for teams to keep in mind that free agency is paying for the future, not the past. Yes, Skubal won a pair of Cy Young's in his 20s, but he's turning 30 years old in November. How many more elite years does he have left? That's a question worth asking, and it's worth noting that teams do not usually hand out such massive deals to pitchers who are 30 years old or older for that reason.
The aforementioned Strasburg contract is the record for a pitcher who was 30 or older when signed. How did that deal end? Yoshinobu Yamamoto has the record for largest contract among pitchers in history, but he was 25 years old when he signed and only signed for $325 million. Skubal wants roughly $100 million more than that?
Skubal should be setting records, but the jump from $245 million and $325 million to $400+ million is massive.
It's hard to find a big-market suitor willing to throw $400+ million on a starting pitcher
Even if teams are willing to look beyond the injury history and age, how many teams will be eager to throw this kind of money at Skubal? His absurd asking price removes most of the teams from even considering him. Let's dive into some of the teams that figure to be in the conversation.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Many assume the Los Angeles Dodgers will re-sign Skubal after trading for him, no questions asked, but are we sure that'll happen? The Dodgers have a ton of money locked in long-term on players like Kyle Tucker, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Mookie Betts (I can go on but won't). Are we sure they'll be willing to add another absurd deal to their payroll? Even if they are, Mark Walter seems to be in a financial mess right now. I could be wrong, but I just don't see it.
New York Mets
The New York Mets have Steve Cohen, and he, alone, can pay for Skubal and not even feel it. The Mets also have David Stearns, though, and he's notoriously against giving older pitchers massive long-term deals. Will he make an exception for Skubal? Maybe. Will Cohen overrule Stearns in this one circumstance? Maybe. I'll need to see it to believe it on both fronts, though.
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees should never be completely counted out, but they have Gerrit Cole, Max Fried and Carlos Rodon under contract through 2028, at least, at over $25 million annually each. Are they really going to take on another massive pitching contract, especially when they have the likes of Cam Schlittler, Ryan Weathers, Will Warren and Clarke Schmidt under club control? I have my doubts.
Philadelphia Phillies
Much like the Yankees, the Philadelphia Phillies have a ton of money invested in their pitching, with Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, Aaron Nola and Jesus Luzardo all locked in. Wheeler's deal is up after 2027, so maybe the Phillies will be willing to squeeze Skubal in, but when considering Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Trea Turner, all are on massive long-term deals; again, I have my doubts that they'll be serious players at a $400 million price tag.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. locked in on a $500 million extension, and they just gave Dylan Cease a $210 million contract in free agency. Perhaps they'd be willing to add another mega-deal, but should their efforts be prioritized in improving a lineup that's second-to-last in the majors in runs scored?
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs, a team that's lacked in the pitching department all year, make too much sense for Skubal, but does anyone actually think owner Tom Ricketts will back a $400+ million investment into Skubal or any free agent, for that matter? The largest contract in franchise history is an eight-year, $184 million pact signed with Jason Heyward. Forgive me for expressing doubt that they'd offer Skubal more than double that.
Skubal is going to get paid, and very possibly by one of these teams. There could even be a sleeper (Angels?) willing to blow him out of the water. If the demand is at or over $400 million, though, I can't say I see Skubal getting everything he wants.
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