The expectations for the NL East coming into the 2026 MLB season were that the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies would likely battle it out for first place. However, did anyone have the New York Mets contending for the league’s worst record? What about the Miami Marlins, who have ridden a hot June right into the NL playoff race? And then, there are the rebuilding Washington Nationals, who are hovering around .500 and are on pace for their best record since their 2019 World Series title.
Heading into the season’s second half, we have some bold predictions to make.
NL East standings entering June 30
Team | Record | Games Back |
|---|---|---|
Atlanta Braves | 49-33 | -- |
Philadelphia Phillies | 47-38 | 3.5 |
Miami Marlins | 45-40 | 5.5 |
Washington Nationals | 43-43 | 8.0 |
New York Mets | 35-50 | 15.5 |
Atlanta Braves
- Prediction: Chris Sale has the best ERA of his career
Sale owns a 2.10 ERA through 15 starts, and he’s recorded a stellar 2.38 ERA since the start of 2024. The 37-year-old has only gotten better with age, allowing only six home runs over 90 innings.Â
If Sale were to maintain his current pace, he’d narrowly beat out the career-best 2.11 ERA he had with the Red Sox in 2018. At this point, would you really bet against him? Both his strikeout rate (11.1 percent) and hits per nine rate (7.5) are right in line with his career averages, and his 8-6 record has far more to do with inconsistent run support.
Miami Marlins
- Prediction: The Marlins keep Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez
The Marlins have been one of baseball’s most intriguing storylines of late, dominating in June and entering Tuesday tied with the Cardinals for the NL's third and final Wild Card spot. Credit to Clayton McCullough’s Marlins squad, who are 45-40 and only 5 ½ back in the NL East.
If things stay as they are, the Marlins have no reason to trade Alcantara or Pérez within the coming weeks. Although Alcantara still hasn’t regained his Cy Young form, he’s lowered his ERA from 5.36 to 4.20, and he’s cut his walk rate from 2.9 to 2.5 percent.
In the past, we might have seen the Marlins take calls on the 23-year-old Pérez, especially if contenders were willing to part ways with multiple top-30 prospects. However, the Marlins have shown enough since last year’s All-Star Break to justify keeping Pérez rather than choosing to sell high.
New York Mets
- Prediction: Steve Cohen publicly calls out Juan Soto
To be clear, we’re not suggesting that Cohen and the Mets will trade Soto, nor do we believe he’ll request a trade in the second year of a 15-year, $765 million contract.
However, Cohen is already losing his patience with Mets fans, verbally sparring with some on X/Twitter this past weekend. Soto’s ugly misplay of a George Springer single on Monday night turned into a Little League home run that cost the Mets in a 2-1 loss. Cohen’s Mets enter Tuesday at 35-50 and 15 ½ back in the NL East.
Add in former Mets assistant coach Eric Chavez’s recent allegations that the team coddled Soto and allowed him to sit in the batting cage area during games, and a public feud between the All-Star outfielder and a vocal owner feels inevitable. Incredibly, only two games separate the Mets and the MLB-worst Rockies.
Philadelphia Phillies
- Prediction: Kyle Schwarber hits at least 65 home runs
Kyle Schwarber is at 30 home runs through 81 games, putting him on pace to surpass the franchise record of 58 that Ryan Howard hit in 2006. Why must time fly so quickly?
Even hitting 50 home runs is difficult, much less getting to 60. But predicting that Schwarber will hit at least 65, a feat that has only happened four times in league history, goes a long way beyond bold. But if any active player can make it happen, then it’s Schwarber, who has 217 homers since the start of 2022.
We just threw a lot of numbers your way, but the bottom line is clear: Teams keep pitching to Schwarber, and we’re not sure why they deem it worth the risk. Considering the season that Shohei Ohtani is having, it’d be interesting to see whether Schwarber would win NL MVP if he somehow managed to join the 65-home run club.
Washington Nationals
- Prediction: The Nationals buy at the deadline and trade Dylan Crews
Crews remains a difficult watch, hitting .219 with a .627 OPS and a 31-4 K-BB ratio in nearly 150 plate appearances. Although he’s still only 24, he came with the team when the Nationals hired lead baseball executives Paul Toboni and Anirudh Kilambi this past offseason. They weren’t the ones who selected him No. 2 in 2023.
This wouldn’t be the Nationals giving up on Crews so much as it’d be hoping that another team is willing to give up one or two valuable assets ahead of the deadline. The 43-43 Nationals are only 2 ½ back of the NL’s final Wild Card spot, and they’ve made far greater progress than most would have expected. If there was ever a time to buy at the deadline, it’s now.
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