Lane Thomas injury will force Braves into a risky lineup gamble against Phillies

This weekend's three-game series between the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies has massive postseason implications. If the Braves can win the series, they'll all but clinch the National League East, ensuring a top-three seed in the National League at a minimum. If the Braves lose it or get swept, they'll give the Phillies a shot at overtaking them in the division.

The Braves have the tiebreaker clinched, which is huge, but it's worth noting that eight of the 10 games these teams have played have been decided by three runs or fewer. The margins have been razor-thin, and that means smaller things like Lane Thomas' injury could be a deciding factor in who gains the upper hand in such a critical series.

Lane Thomas' injury puts the Braves in a tough spot

On the surface, Thomas's intercostal strain doesn't feel like a huge deal. Since being acquired by the Royals at the trade deadline, Thomas has gone just 7-for-41 with one home run. He has hit .171 with a .261 on-base percentage and a .578 OPS.

With that being said, Thomas was acquired for one particular reason: to crush left-handed pitchers. He hasn't done that much with Atlanta, but he has an .803 OPS against them this season and an .848 OPS against them in his career. The track record is there, and with more reps, there was reason to believe he'd get going against lefties.

Now, the Braves are in a tough spot with their lineup against left-handed pitchers. Notably, the Phillies are throwing one of the best left-handers in the game, Jesus Luzardo, against them on Saturday.

Lane Thomas' injury adds to already existing Braves flaw

The Braves have a 91 team wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, good for a share of 22nd in the sport with light-hitting teams like the Rays and Marlins. They've struggled against lefties all year, and have been struggling mightily overall at the dish, as they have the fewest runs in the National League since August 1.

Again, Thomas hadn't helped much yet, but his track record suggests there's reason to believe he'd get going sooner rather than later. If he isn't going to be in there to crush lefties? Who will? Who is going to hit Luzardo, who threw a three-hit shutout against Atlanta his last time out? Even beyond that, who will the Braves turn to in a big spot late in a game against a left-handed reliever like Brooks Raley or Jose Alvarado?

It might not seem like a big deal, but Thomas' injury can really come back to haunt Atlanta, and will force the Braves to run a weird-looking lineup against Luzardo on Saturday.

Projected Braves lineup against Jesus Luzardo shows why Braves need Lane Thomas

Thomas didn't do much against Luzardo on Labor Day, but the same can be said about the entire Braves lineup. However, in his career, he's gone 9-for-25 against this left-hander (.360 BA) with four home runs. His 1.327 OPS in his career against Luzardo is much better than anyone else in the Braves' projected lineup against him.

Mauricio Dubon has gone 4-for-9 with a double against Luzardo, but the rest of this lineup is a big yikes against this particular left-hander, with Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies, in particular, struggling against him in large sample sizes. Olson is the only hitter on the Braves team other than Thomas to hit a single home run against him.

Whether the Braves choose to start Sean Murphy, Kyle Farmer, Mike Yastrzemski or someone else in place of Thomas against Luzardo, their lineup just doesn't look to be good enough. That could be problematic in a big game on Saturday, and their lineup against lefties could be an issue down the stretch and into October, depending on how much time he will miss.

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