Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- At 50-53, the Baltimore Orioles sit near the trade deadline stuck between buying and selling, raising huge questions about catcher Adley Rutschman's future.
- With prospect Samuel Basallo injured, Baltimore could demand top prospects for Rutschman or wait to address his contract during the upcoming offseason.
- Trading a franchise catcher reshapes the roster, but holding him keeps Baltimore's immediate playoff hopes alive in a crowded wild card race.
With less than two weeks until the trade deadline, the Baltimore Orioles find themselves in “will they or won’t they?” mode. At 50-53, the Orioles are 10 games back in the AL East, so their likely path to the postseason is through the Wild Card. Easier said than done, seeing as Baltimore is three games out of the third and final Wild Card spot.
Whether the Orioles will buy or sell within the next 11 days has quickly become one of baseball’s more intriguing stories. While Baltimore lacks a tradable superstar like Tarik Skubal or Byron Buxton, the Orioles have a rental asset in left fielder and on-base machine Taylor Ward.
Then, there’s the Adley Rutschman question. ESPN’s Jeff Passan predicted there is a 30% chance the Orioles will trade their franchise catcher, who has one year of team control remaining. “Rutschman is good enough — and the catching position [is] important enough — that if the Orioles become motivated to move him, they'll do very, very well,” Passan wrote.
Should the Baltimore Orioles trade catcher Adley Rutschman?
Regardless of how the Orioles finish this season, a Rutschman trade feels inevitable because of the greater context. Baltimore already locked up top catching prospect Samuel Basallo to an eight-year deal that will carry him through the 2033 season.
There’s nothing stopping the Orioles from simultaneously buying and selling. Basallo just went on the IL with a shoulder injury, which could further incentivize Baltimore to keep Rutschman and address his future this offseason.
Pete Alonso’s presence likely rules out Rutschman moving to first in the offseason. The Orioles could have one of them be the everyday DH next year, though that feels like a waste of manpower. Not unless they snag a quality first baseman — Luis Arraez, perhaps? — and are fine with Alonso moving to DH.
Rutschman’s .331 on-base percentage and .764 OPS mark his highest since 2022, and he’s cut his strikeout rate to a career-best 14.1%. Optimistic buyers might tell themselves that they’re landing a franchise catcher finally taking advantage of his prime — Rutschman doesn’t turn 29 until next February — whom they can lock up within the next year.
But if I’m the Orioles, I’m not trading Rutschman until next weekend at the absolute earliest. The AL Wild Card race is congested enough that we might see other borderline teams, such as the Astros or Twins, opt solely to buy, which would obviously drastically alter the market.
Predicting what Rutschman could fetch in a midseason trade is itself another conversation, though I’d expect the Orioles to demand at least one top-15 prospect. As Passan pointed out, Rutschman playing a premium position could create an even greater return.
The Yankees have a massive catching need, but the Orioles might be hesitant to trade within the division. Even the thought of convincing the Yankees to give up Austin Wells in return isn’t a foolproof plan. The Cubs also make sense, though veteran backstop Carson Kelly has a mutual option for 2027.
And no, the possibility of the Orioles trading Rutschman doesn’t make him a bust. There have clearly been systemic organizational failures to blame for the last season and a half, and he’s been a competent starting catcher when healthy. Maybe not enough to justify him being the No. 1 pick in 2019, mind you, but let’s not pretend Rutschman has been awful.
For their sake, though, the Orioles should hope Basallo is back in the big-league lineup soon. It’ll be all hands on deck if they’re to snag a wild card seed.
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