The MLB trade deadline predictions insiders are afraid to make

No matter how much time you spend scouring the MLB rumor mill, the trade deadline always surprises. Did anyone have the San Diego Padres flipping the best prospect in baseball for Mason Miller last summer?

And that was in a normal year, where everyone was pretty well aware of which teams were buying and which were selling. In 2026, however, chaos reigns — the standings are a jumbled mess, and no one can be quite sure which stars will be changing teams between now and Aug. 3. There's virtually guaranteed to be at least one shocking development, and likely more, as we realize just how far off the "conventional wisdom" really was.

So let's try to figure out just what those developments might be ahead of time. Below are seven bold predictions for how the deadline will go down, from Tarik Skubal to Francisco Lindor to an all-out fire sale.

The Brewers will be the team to win the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes ...

Back in 2008, Milwaukee splurged on a star lefty who was destined for free agency at year's end and rode him all the way to within one game of the World Series. The braintrust that made that decision is long gone now, but I still think the Brewers could be destined for a repeat with Skubal this summer.

Scott Harris knows that the best thing for the Tigers moving forward is to get what they can for Skubal before he moves on, but with Detroit getting back into the fringes of the AL Wild Card race, it's going to take a massive offer to convince him to pull the trigger. The two teams that could most feasibly make it worth the Tigers' while are the Dodgers and Brewers, and I think Milwaukee is desperate enough and has enough top-end talent in its farm system to get a deal over the line.

The Brewers won't part with No. 1 overall prospect Jesús Made for a rental, but players like Luis Peña, Luis Lara, Josh Adamczewski and Andrew Fischer, plus righty Logan Henderson, all would appeal to Detroit. And if not now, when exactly will Milwaukee push its chips into the middle of the table and try to actually get over the hump?

... while the Dodgers make a Godfather offer for Joe Ryan

Minnesota finds itself in something of a similar situation with Joe Ryan, with the important caveat that Ryan, unlike Skubal, has one more year of team control remaining after 2026. Still, the Twins know they're not a real contender this year, and they also know that they'll get much more for their star righty this summer with two postseason runs remaining than if they wait until he becomes a rental this winter.

He'll be available, in other words, and if the Dodgers miss out on Skubal — to a pennant rival, no less — they'll be more than willing to back up the truck for the next best thing. Los Angeles needs rotation reinforcements more than anything else at the deadline, and with Skubal off the board, Ryan is the most postseason-ready starter on the market. With a slew of top outfield prospects and arms to offer the Twins, they'll have no problem getting a deal done.

The Mets won't trade Francisco Lindor — until the winter

Between his massive contract, nagging health concerns and full no-trade clause, there are simply too many moving parts to get a Lindor trade done in the middle of a season. But there's so much smoke around the Mets' much-maligned shortstop — from rumors of a clubhouse rift to a report from SNY's Chelsea Janes over the weekend that New York has told potential suitors he's "not untouchable" — that it's hard to believe there's no fire. Lindor will turn 33 in November, and while he's still an excellent player on both sides of the ball, he's already starting to show signs of decline. Given David Stearns' love of flexibility, is it so crazy to think he'd want to try and get out from under the back half of that contract while he still has a chance to do so?

While a midseason trade probably isn't in the cards, I do think this whole saga has laid the foundation for a trade this winter, when prospective suitors are better able to rearrange their payrolls and Lindor can weigh his options and consider whether he wants to waive his no-trade clause. In the end, it's hard to see this relationship continuing.

AJ Preller is going to go down with the Padres' ship

Objectively speaking, there's no way the San Diego Padres should buy at this year's trade deadline. They've been actively bad for almost three months now, with an bloated and underperforming offense and a threadbare rotation, and there's little reason to believe they can make up the necessary ground in the NL Wild Card race (let alone make real noise if they do reach October).

And yet ... well, when has AJ Preller ever let objectivity stop him? He's always been the brashest executive in baseball, and now he faces what could be his final stretch run in charge of a team set for new ownership — ownership that will have zero attachment to him or his front office. He's likely a dead man walking no matter what, so why would he care about what's best for San Diego's future? The Padres have very few chips remaining, but Preller will push them all in one last time.

Jeremy Peña will be the best position player traded

I don't think the Orioles, Rockies or A's will be persuaded to move Adley Rutschman, Hunter Goodman or Shea Langeliers. And outside of that catching trio, well, there's just really not much in the way of position player talent available at this deadline.

With the exception of Peña, that is, who I'm surprised hasn't been getting a bit more buzz. The Astros have crept back toward respectability, but this is still not a very good baseball team, and we just saw them bail on Kyle Tucker a year before losing him to free agency. Peña isn't quite there yet, but he's certainly not signing an extension in the next 18 months, meaning Houston would do well to restock its barren farm system rather than let him walk for nothing.

Of course, it's possible that a hot week or two changes Dana Brown's mind. But if this team is still languishing six or seven games below .500 in early August, a seller's market could force their hand.

The White Sox and Pirates will be among the most aggressive buyers on the market

The White Sox are way, way ahead of schedule. The Pirates are just a team that everybody has a hard time taking seriously, but reasons that are by this point well-documented. But I think the two of them could wind up dominating a wide-open trade deadline all the same.

Sure, Chicago is young, and I don't think Chris Getz will go completely crazy in mortgaging his team's bright future. I also don't think he'll have to in order to give the Sox the pitching help they need to become a real threat in an American League that seemingly no one wants to win. Seriously: Add someone like Reid Detmers or even Kevin Gausman or Robbie Ray, and why can't Chicago beat the Yankees or Rays in a seven-game series? This is a rare opportunity, one a team starved for success shouldn't pass up.

Speaking of starved for success: The Pirates haven't had a chance like this in going on a decade now, with a surprisingly potent offense powering a team that looks like a viable contender under the hood. Add a starter and a reliever to supplement the homegrown core, and Pittsburgh will be awfully dangerous come October. There's prospect capital to burn here, and none of the other contenders for the final NL Wild Card spot seem particularly serious at the moment.

The Angels will trade everything that isn't nailed down

The Giants won't be able to get out from under their myriad bad contracts. The Mets have designs on contending again in 2027, while the Royals, Reds and Rockies simply don't have all that much to sell. If you're looking a team to go full 2025 Twins and pull the ripcord, go to Anaheim, where organizational dysfunction could lead to some truly wild outcomes.

It's gone underreported that John Mozeliak is shepherding the Halos after Perry Minasian's dismissal. He's operating under an interim tag right now, but why wouldn't he jump at the full-time gig if Arte Moreno offers it to him? It's not like any other team is itching to hire him, and it's not like many other enticing candidates want to work for the Angels either. Mozeliak sure seems to have an inside track, and that could mean he wants to fully remake this roster in his image — starting by moving players like Jose Soriano, Reid Detmers and Zach Neto.

All three could fetch a nice return at the deadline, and none of them figure to be a part of the next competitive Angels team (whenever that may finally arrive). If Mozeliak has Moreno's ear and the go-ahead for a rebuild, everybody but Mike Trout could be out the door.

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