Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Five MLB teams must acknowledge their playoff hopes are fading and focus on rebuilding at the trade deadline.
- The Padres and Nationals sit near the Wild Card line but face tough decisions with expensive veterans and aging stars.
- The next two weeks will test whether these franchises prioritize short-term gains or long-term growth with strategic trades.
Reality bites, and optimism will only take you so far. Look no further than the MLB postseason push, where plenty of teams are still technically in the hunt for one of three Wild Card spots.
And while some of those clubs appear locks to buy ahead of the trade deadline, others might be more unsure of their plans. However, we have a clear answer for those teams: accept that they’re unlikely to make the playoffs and instead pivot to selling over the next two weeks.
For this list, I’ve identified each team’s situation as of July 20. How many games back are they in the division, and where are they in the Wild Card race?
Let’s start with a team that, to their credit, has played well over the last two months.
Detroit Tigers
Situation entering July 20: Detroit is 46-53, putting the Tigers 6.5 games behind the AL Central-leading White Sox and 4 ½ back in the AL Wild Card race.
Tarik Skubal’s return has energized the Tigers, who are 24-15 since the start of June. AJ Hinch’s seat has temporarily cooled off, and we’re already seeing questions regarding the Tigers potentially keeping Skubal rather than trading him before he hits free agency.
All signs point to the AL Central coming down to the White Sox and Guardians, with the loser likely earning a Wild Card berth. Outside of prized rookie Kevin McGonigle and All-Star left fielder Riley Greene, I don’t have faith in the Tigers’ young core stepping up in the coming weeks.
Let the Tigers be yet another example of why the “early season losses don’t matter” argument is nonsense. Every game matters, and the Tigers’ 6-22 May all but doomed their playoff chances.
Houston Astros
Situation entering July 20: Houston is 47-54, putting the Astros four games behind the AL West-leading Rangers and 4.5 games back in the AL Wild Card race.
Hindsight is 20/20, and the Astros should have considered beginning their rebuild last year. Instead, Houston is taking the mid-2010s Yankees approach of hoping that a winnable division is enough to outweigh the many issues with their roster.
Houston’s rotation is awful, and Jose Altuve is barely a replacement-level second baseman. Rather than consider buying at the deadline, the Astros should trade shortstop Jeremy Peña, who only has one year of team control left.
More than anything, the Astros need a full reset this offseason … which is what I would say if they didn’t owe Altuve and Carlos Correa a combined $89 million over the next three years. Oh, and both have full no-trade clauses. Well done, Astros.
Minnesota Twins
Situation entering July 20: Minnesota is 49-51, putting the Twins four games behind the AL Central-leading White Sox and two games back in the AL Wild Card race.
Unlike most of the other teams on this list, the Twins are already rebuilding. I’d personally like to see the Twins simultaneously buy and sell, which would likely involve trading Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober for former top prospects and veterans who could immediately play. Dodgers catcher Daulton Rushing, perhaps?
History has proven that the AL Central is typically fairly weak, and the Twins’ rebuild is coming along fine. But going into the deadline intending solely to buy would be a massive mistake.
We likely won’t see Byron Buxton on the move, though. He’s repeatedly said he wants to play his entire career in Minnesota, and he can decline any trade via his 10-and-5 rights. I’ll never understand the stubbornness of guys like Buxton and Mike Trout.
San Diego Padres
Situation entering July 20: San Diego is 49-50, putting the Padres 13 ½ games behind the NL West-leading Dodgers and 2.5 games back in the NL Wild Card race.
I have immense respect for teams like the Giants and Padres, who decided that they wanted to spend and compete with the big boys. Sharing a division with the Dodgers, even before the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman arrived, didn’t deter them from being aggressive in free agency.
The Padres don’t have much to show for it, though, only reaching the NLCS once in the Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado era. Veteran first baseman Ty France is the only position player even worth 1.5 bWAR, and the duo of Machado and Xander Bogaerts has been dreadful.
Financial commitments to Machado and Bogaerts only complicate the Padres’ contending chances moving forward. Now is the time to start breaking down the roster and hope they can find a buyer for Bogaerts over the winter.
Washington Nationals
Situation entering July 20: Washington is 50-50, putting the Nationals eight games behind the NL East-leading Braves and two games back in the NL Wild Card race.
Much like the Twins, I wouldn’t mind seeing the Nationals opt to buy and sell rather than solely go in one direction. CJ Abrams remains their top trade chip, and Washington must try to take advantage of a desperate contender. The Yankees, perhaps?
Credit to the Nationals, who have exceeded expectations and are well on track to avoid another 90-loss season. Even if they miss the postseason, they should be proud of the progress they’ve made this season. We’ll see whether they opt to keep Abrams and instead continue to build around him and James Wood.
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