The All-Star break is almost here, which means that front offices are in the middle of the most grueling stretch of their calendar year, with the MLB Draft taking place on July 11 and the trade deadline scheduled for Aug. 3.
Once the draft concludes, teams will immediately dive into trade deadline prep. The expectation remains that the bulk of the trade action won’t come until much closer to the Aug. 3 deadline, as so many teams remain hopeful of buying. But there are still plenty of fun ideas and scenarios being floated around behind the scenes. Here’s what I’m hearing before heading to Philadelphia for the All-Star Game.
Buyer-vs.-buyer trades are no longer just a theory
The possibility of two buyers coming together on a trade at this year's deadline is real. Mariners executive Jerry Dipoto mentioned the possibility on MLB Network Radio and multiple major-league sources have expressed the same in recent days.
“I think there are enough contending teams with real holes or needs to fill that you might actually see more action with contender trading with contender — like, buyer-to-buyer type trades to fill voids,” Dipoto said.
Such trades have been rare historically and are difficult to pull off. But a limited pool of sellers could force contending teams to get creative in trading from strengths to address weaknesses. The teams that will likely sell include the San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Angels and Kansas City Royals. After that, the Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, New York Mets and Baltimore Orioles loom as legitimate possible sellers.
Unless that seller pool increases, expect the buyer-to-buyer trade possibilities to become a focal point of the trade deadline conversation.
Why the Tigers may think twice about trading Skubal
Don’t look now, but the Detroit Tigers are playing some of their best baseball of the season. They are 19-12 since June 1, the best record in the American League across that span, and are only 6.5 games back in the American League Central. Which begs the question: Could the Tigers actually keep Tarik Skubal?
A trade still feels more likely than not. Skubal, who would almost surely leave as a free agent, would get a strong haul in a trade that multiple rival executives believe would net the Tigers a top-100 prospect, an organizational top-15 prospect and more. He’s been excellent since his miraculous recovery from elbow surgery, with a 3.06 ERA in 70.2 innings, and would instantly bolster any teams’ chances of winning the World Series.
But the Tigers are surging, with their offense and starting pitching among the best in baseball. Their bullpen is much improved too. If they keep playing like this, the conversation could shift toward the Tigers being buyers, which would give Scott Harris perhaps his toughest decision yet: Give it one last shot with Skubal or trade him before free agency?
Texas has an intriguing trade piece to offer
One possibility that the Texas Rangers could consider is moving infielder Josh Smith to address a different part of the roster. Smith, a former Silver Slugger winner, has been asked about by teams in the past.
Smith, 28, is hitting .229/.313/.297 with one home run and eight RBI in 134 plate appearances. In five seasons, he’s hitting .236/.326/.349 with 32 home runs and 136 RBI while having played every infield position as well as left and right field the past two seasons.
Cam Smith is already creating extension buzz
I was having a conversation with a baseball executive who posed an interesting question: Should the Houston Astros extend Cam Smith, the prized young outfielder who was acquired from the Chicago Cubs for Kyle Tucker?
Smith, 23, has 20 home runs and 83 RBI across his first 226 games in the majors. But multiple scouts believe that Smith, one of baseball’s top young players, is capable of hitting 30-40 homers per season and can win multiple Gold Gloves. And after losing Carlos Correa, George Springer and Kyle Tucker in recent years, and with Jose Altuve now in his age-36 season, extending Smith would ensure that a significant part of the Astros’ core is in Houston for the long haul.
The biggest All-Star misses, according to insiders
The list of All-Star snubs is long and includes Brice Turang, Zack Wheeler and Willson Contreras (he’s now an All-Star). But Kyle Harrison and Foster Griffin also were incredibly deserving.
Harrison, of course, was acquired from the Boston Red Sox and has been masterful in Milwaukee. The 24-year-old has a 2.82 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 16 starts (79.2 innings). Team officials are incredibly optimistic about Harrison’s future, believing that he has all the attributes to be an elite starting pitcher. So while Harrison may not have made it this year, it would hardly be surprising if he made it next year.
Griffin, meanwhile, has been arguably the best bargain add of free agency. He was signed to a one-year, $5.5 million contract and has a 2.87 ERA and 100 strikeouts in 18 starts. The Nationals now face an interesting dilemma with Griffin this deadline – do they keep him and hope to extend or move him at the deadline? – but there’s no question that Griffin, the first signing of the Paul Toboni era, was a home run.
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