Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Dodgers hold all the leverage over other contenders in trade talks for Tigers ace Tarik Skubal.
- Skubal reportedly wants to sign with the Dodgers in free agency.
- The decision could shape both the immediate playoff odds and the team's free agency strategy this winter.
We've written enough about Tarik Skubal to fill up a small library in the leadup to the MLB trade deadline, and it's only Thursday. The Tigers ace made his final start in Detroit on Wednesday, which leads to an obvious follow: What uniform will he wear for his next start? The Dodgers are the presumptive favorites to land Skubal, but that list also includes the Brewers, Braves, Rays, Phillies, Yankees and more. When you have a chance to acquire a two-time Cy Young winner, even for just a couple of months, you do it.
The Dodgers maintain that they don't need Skubal, but recent rumblings suggest that's all noise the front office wants to put out. This rotation relies heavily on the likes of Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani. All three of those pitchers have suffered significant elbow injuries in the not-so-distant past. If Skubal can be had for a relatively affordable asking price, they should acquire him, no?
All Tarik Skubal rumors point to the Los Angeles Dodgers
ESPN's Jeff Passan reported on Wednesday night that a Skubal trade was a sure thing, and that the Dodgers are the presumed frontrunners. None of this is necessarily new, but the assurance with which he speaks does point to just how surprised those in the know would be if Skubal went anywhere but Los Angeles.
What makes the Dodgers the presumptive favorites is that they can match the Tigers asking price and then some. Detroit prefers a controllable starting pitcher plus prospects. The Dodgers have a few of those, including River Ryan, Emmet Sheehan and even NL All-Star Justin Wrobleski. Their farm system is among the best in baseball. The Tigers can have their pick, assuming the Dodgers approve. Only the Brewers and Rays could reasonably match, but would Milwaukee want to trade Logan Henderson, or Tampa Ian Seymour?
The argument against trading for Skubal is a simple one. He will leave at the end of the season for the best offer he receives. For teams like the Rays and Brewers, there's a simple understanding that offer won't be coming from them. The Dodgers, though, have already aligned their goals (and financial spreadsheets) with Skubal's looming free agency, per Bob Nightengale.
"Or the Dodgers could grab Skubal, knowing that they are considered his first preference, anyway, when he becomes a free agent. That would not only give them a lethal October rotation, but keep him away from the competition," Nightengale wrote.
What the Dodgers should do with their Tarik Skubal advantage
If the Dodgers know Skubal is likely to sign with them this winter anyway, then trading for him now makes the most sense as to keep him in-house. It also takes some of the pressure off. While other contenders are worried they'll trade controllable assets for Skubal only for him to leave this winter, with Los Angeles, that's not the case. Skubal's future is in their control.
I wouldn't necessarily say the Dodgers have leverage over the Tigers in trade talks despite this knowledge. Detroit executive Scott Harris is negotiating with at least six MLB teams. The Dodgers have to match or beat those offers to acquire Skubal. It's really that simple.
Given their injury-prone starting rotation and the uncertainty around Ohtani and Roki Sasaki come the postseason, adding Skubal makes far more sense than letting him sign with an NL rival. If Skubal joined the Brewers, a 1-2 punch of him and Jacob Misiorowski will be tough to beat in the postseason. The Dodgers can eliminate that possibility, and add a two-time Cy Young winner to their rotation at the same time. Don't hold back, Andrew Friedman.
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