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Logan Henderson gem should have Brewers fans thinking twice about Tarik Skubal regret

Milwaukee's up-and-coming ace put on a show Tuesday night.
Logan Henderson - Milwaukee Brewers
Logan Henderson - Milwaukee Brewers | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The main storyline ahead of Monday's MLB trade deadline was the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes — and whether the Milwaukee Brewers or another team could successfully prevent the L.A. Dodgers from acquiring him. In the end, the answer was no. Skubal is a Dodger, and he allowed one run in six innings in his debut last night.

For Brewers fans feeling jaded, however, Logan Henderson supplied a brief reprieve last night. He went six innings with eight strikeouts, allowing two earned runs in a win over Pittsburgh. Critically, the Dodgers lost Skubal's debut in Chicago. Henderson has four straight starts of at least five innings pitched with two or fewer earned runs allowed. In 10 starts on the season, the 24-year-old has a 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, notching 62 strikeouts in 50.0 innings.

The Brewers will be just fine without Tarik Skubal

Tarik Skubal - Detroit Tigers
Tarik Skubal - Detroit Tigers | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This is not the say the Brewers are better off without Skubal. He is a true needle-mover and Milwaukee is familiar with the impact a Cy Young-caliber addition can make, even as a midseason rental (see: Sabathia, CC).

Milwaukee currently has the best record in MLB. The opportunity to add Skubal for the stretch run, to pair him with Jacob Misiorowski and form the most potent one-two punch in the National League, was a rare opportunity. Especially considering just how mortal the Dodgers offense feels of late. The margin between L.A. and Milwaukee unquestionably expanded as soon as the Skubal news broke.

That said: Milwaukee needn't panic. The Brewers are still well-stocked on the mound, with their trademark patience and productivity on offense. While there's not as much firepower on this Brewers roster, they play an extremely sound, consistent brand of baseball, which is honestly more than Los Angeles can say.

The Brewers effectively stuck to their guns. This is an organization built on patience. Built on internal development and a neverending stream of impactful young talent being plucked out of the minors. Trade Freddy Peralta? Here's Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson and Kyle Harrison. All fairly new faces. Trade Caleb Durbin? Here's Cooper Pratt on the ascent. Here's Luis Lara with a .727 OPS, playing Gold Glove caliber defense in the outfield.

So much has been made of L.A.'s farm system and player development of late, and rigthfully so, but the Brewers are just as good at in. Milwaukee's next generation is extremely bright, and no team is better at discovering production in unexpected places. Jesús Made is MLB's No. 1 prospect and could debut for the Brewers as a 20-year-old next season. The wave won't stop, in large part because the Brewers don't sacrifice the future haphazardly.

We can't say the Brewers did not try to land Skubal

Luis Peña - Milwaukee Brewers
Luis Peña - Milwaukee Brewers | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

To their credit, it's not like the Brewers just let Skubal go to the Dodgers. This is not some grand conspiracy to force a salary cap in next winter's CBA negotiations. It was not the Brewers simply saying "no, we don't need Skubal."

"[Milwaukee] tried — really hard," writes FanSided's MLB insider Robert Murray. "It was not a 'look, we tried' type offer. The Brewers genuinely attempted to acquire Skubal and recreate the magic that came with their 2008 run after they brought in CC Sabathia."

Per MLB.com's Adam McCalvy, their package was centered around 19-year-old shortstop Luis Peña, FanSided's No. 27 overall prospect. Hope, the centerpiece of Detroit's haul from the Dodgers, is FanSided's No. 33 prospect.

Brewers president Matt Arnold said the Brewers were ready to be "irresponsible" in their push to land Skubal.

"We certainly talked about doing some ‘irresponsible’ stuff as well, but we tried to thread the needle,” Arnold said. “We were prepared to push a lot of chips in. And look, I think we did,"

Not everybody has time for phrases like "thread the needle" when a player of Skubal's caliber is involved, but this is how Milwaukee sustains excellence. They don't recklessly abandon controllable stars, like Logan Henderson, for short-term upgrades. Skubal is better than Henderson, and obviously much more proven in a postseason environment, but that margin is not terribly wide with how effectively Henderson is locating pitches. He has a 32.3 percent strikeout rate (96th percentile, per Baseball Savant) and a 5.2 percent walk rate (94th percentile), with a better expected ERA (2.61) than Skubal (2.98) this season.

Giving up Henderson — still pre-arbitration and under club control through 2031 — for two months of Skubal, with a World Series victory still not fully guaranteed, is a massive risk. More teams should take risk. The old adage often proves true, that reward does not come without risk. But the Brewers were understandably unwilling to completely unload the clip, whereas L.A. has the financial resources, MLB talent and prospect depth to make their blockbuster package feel more ephemeral, less essential.

To quote ESPN guru Jeff Passan, Milwaukee would have needed to trade from its "lifeblood" to land Skubal. That is not the case for the Dodgers. This still makes Milwaukee's World Series path much more difficult, and those windows don't stay open forever. But, given how excellent Henderson is and how sustainably the Brewers are built, it's hard to fault them entirely for putting a limit on their risk tolerence.

Milwaukee made other additions, too. JoJo Romero and Anthony Senzatela can shove out of the bullpen, while Dustin May is perhaps the most obvious breakout candidate of all time now that Milwaukee's coaching staff can gets its hands on him. May has already made significant strides in his approach and effectiveness down in St. Louis. Obviously, May will not replicate Skubal's sheer dominance on a weekly basis, but he could provide Milwaukee with a very solid No. 4 starter in October once the run of aces, from Misiorowski to Harrison to Henderson, is through.

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