Making the doomed case for Juan Soto to win NL MVP

I cannot make the case for Juan Soto to be the National League MVP. But the fact that I cannot make the case might be the case itself. Eureka!

Here is a list of stats that Soto is currently leading the NL in: on-base percentage, slugging, (ipso facto) OPS, xwOBA and wRC+. He is not on pace to do anything overly special with raw totals like hits, RBIs and home runs, and he’s not a good defender at all. But some of that stuff owes to the comedic lack of support he has in the New York Mets' order, and he’s dominating all the underlying statistics I hold so dear. Full disclosure: Soto is one of my favorite players — in terms of power, walk rate and strikeout rate, he profiles like the all-timest of all-time greats. This is not the first time I’ve sung his statistical praises. It’s like … the third time this year.

Juan Soto is having an unreal season, yet has no chance to win the NL MVP

But he cannot be the NL MVP; it is a mathematical impossibility. Shohei Ohtani is on pace for over 10 WAR, a stat that already undercounts his true impact. Ohtani is hitting the cover off the ball, posting quality start after start like it’s nothing and is everything theoretical-maximum Shohei Ohtani was meant to look like. But no number matters literally at all. All you need to know to end the Soto candidacy is one sentence: Ohtani is having an elite pitching and hitting season. That’s it. That’s all you need to know.

It wouldn’t even have to be elite. All Ohtani has to do is be pretty good at both and Soto has no argument. Oh, what, is Soto going to pitch one of these days? No? Well then you’re out of luck!

How good would Soto have to be to win an MVP with a healthy Ohtani in the NL? There’s no finite number, but he would need a statistical achievement so absurd it cuts through the fact that Ohtani, uh, pitches. Batting .400? That would probably do it. What about on-base over .500, something no hitter not named Barry Bonds has achieved since 1957 Micky Mantle? I don’t even know if that would be enough. Do we also need 60 home runs? Does he just need to be Barry Bonds but without all the … other stuff?

Shohei Ohtani might make Soto the best player to never win an MVP

This all sounds unfair, but it’s not “unfair” in the traditional sense of the word, since Ohtani is playing the same sport as Soto. He just has double the tools; it’s like Soto showed up to the MVP battle with boxing gloves and Ohtani brought a fighter jet. 

Here’s the (admittedly losing) argument, the best one I have: Soto could play the best version of Juan Soto baseball, and MVP voters may eventually downgrade Ohtani for playing worse versions of Ohtani-ball even if it’s conceptually better than Soto-ball. If Ohtani does not continuously one up himself, Soto could have a chance. These are the straws we’re grasping at.

It’s worth noting also that Soto’s cumulative WAR tracks for him to retire a better player than Ohtani, which you could say doesn’t capture their value, but you can also say super-duper matters when we talk about the greatest MLB players. Yet Soto and Ohtani cross-contaminating the NL with greatness might lead to Shohei retiring with 10 MVPs and Soto with zero. How on earth will we parse those parameters?

I guess we’ll parse them when we get there, since there’s a chance Ohtani stops pitching one of these days and Soto finally starts winning some awards. But there’s at least a chance Soto retires as easily the best player never to win an MVP purely because of Ohtani’s shining greatness. Weirdly, that has to be point to Ohtani in whatever GOAT debate we’re still having.

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