MLB free agency is months away, as we still have a loaded September slate to get through along with the MLB Postseason. Still, fanbases can't help but keep an eye on the future, and possible offseason exits to come. That proves double this winter. MLB and MLBPA are almost certainly heading for a lockout in December, which means there could be a mad dash to sign players beforehand.
For the likes of the Braves, Phillies and Mets — frequent contenders almost always in the mix for top-tier talent — they need to get their finances in order, and fast.
Atlanta Braves
- Free agent most likely to leave: Tyler Mahle
Mahle may not be the biggest name available in free agency, but the Braves acquired the right-handed starting pitcher at the trade deadline for pennies on the dollar. Alex Anthopoulos and Atlanta's player development staff quickly identified why he'd been struggling in San Francisco (5.13 ERA) and corrected it. Thus, Mahle has a 1.48 ERA with the Braves in five starts since the trade deadline.
Yes, it's a small sample size, but if Mahle keeps pitching like this he'd be wise to cash in, even if that's on a one-year prove it deal with a higher AAV. He may never have a greater chance to receive a lucrative payday. The 31-year-old is on the back end of his prime.
New York Mets
- Free agent most likely to leave: Bo Bichette
Look, I'd be surprised if Bo Bichette leaves. He has a $42 million player option he can opt into, and he has just a .705 OPS this season, which is a full 135 points lower than his total in 2025. Essentially, he has robbed the Mets of millions, and they're stuck with him. However, when the other options are Christopher Morel and Chris Devenski, you can see how I'm stuck between a rock and hard place. Neither of those players qualify as 'stars'.
The 2027 free agency class is devoid much position player talent, especially in the middle infield. There is a world where Bichette performs well in September, boosts his OPS by 50 or so points and then bolts for the open market knowing he can receive more contract flexibility than he currently has in Queens. The odds aren't in his favor.
Miami Marlins
- Free agent likely to leave: Pete Fairbanks
Much like the Mets, there's a shortage of options with the Miami Marlins. Sandy Alcantara could reach free agency, but the Marlins would have to decline his club option, which seems unlikely. Alcantara could be a valuable trade chip once again in 2027, and his option will only cost them $21 million. Thus, we're stuck with Fairbanks, who is the only other option.
Fairbanks hasn't been productive this season. On the year, he has a 6.02 ERA, but that number has dropped considerably over the last 30 games. In Fairbanks' last 15 games, he has an ERA just north of four and six saves. What that tells us is the Marlins still trust him to close out games. If his numbers trend in the right direction, Fairbanks could be an under-the-radar free agent pickup this winter.
Philadelphia Phillies
- Free agent likely to leave: Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez is the easiest player to identify on this list, frankly. The Phillies acquired the second baseman at the MLB trade deadline as a rental, and he should be exactly that. Arraez is boosting his own value thanks to the work of the player batting in front of him in Bryce Harper. Since Arraez has joined the team, Harper's OPS has skyrocketed, proving Arraez's steady bat and ability to put the ball in play makes him great protection for a player like Bryce, who MLB pitchers typically throw around.
If Arraez leaves he'll immediately be the target of a short-term, high-AAV deal. He's improved in every facet this season, including defensively, which was thought to be his one major weakness. If his range remains steady at second base, expect Arraez to be coveted by November.
Washington Nationals
- Free agent most likely to leave: None?
The Nationals only have one free agent heading into this offseason, and that's Cade Cavalli. The good news for Washington is he's on a cheap club option. Should the Nationals enact that option, he'll return for the cheap price of just $4 million. That's a bargain for a pitcher like Cavalli, who has 3.12 ERA in 29 starts. So, as much as I'd like to provide another answer to this question, I literally cannot.
If we're talking trade assets, then the Nationals have plenty. CJ Abrams, for one, is expected to be floated in trade talks again this winter. For the right asking price, Abrams can be had, and he's been one of the best power-hitting infielders in baseball this season.
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