Those following the Major League Baseball postseason picture will see and hear the term “earn” frequently mentioned within the coming days, which isn’t exactly the word that comes to mind upon looking at the standings.
Outside of the 60-game 2020 season, we’ve never seen a losing team make the playoffs. Depending on how the next eight days play out, there could be four American League teams that finish with 81 or fewer wins yet qualify for the playoffs.
The easiest way to keep tabs on how close teams are to clinching is by looking at magic numbers. The formula to calculate a magic number is as follows, per MLB.com:
- Games remaining +1 - (Losses by second place team - losses by first place team)
American League standings and playoff picture
For all intents and purposes, the Red Sox have clinched a playoff berth; they entered Saturday with their magic number sitting at two, and they’re so far ahead in the Wild Card standings that they’re all but locked into a first-round matchup with the Yankees. It’d be the fourth time in less than a decade these two have met in the playoffs, and the Red Sox look to avenge last year’s Wild Card Series loss.
The AL Central and AL West are, shall we say, messy. Houston holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Texas and is only two games back of Cleveland for the AL’s No. 2 seed. Meanwhile, the White Sox have a one-game lead over the Rangers for the final Wild Card berth, and we could realistically see three of those teams make the postseason with a losing record.
Team | Record | Games back |
|---|---|---|
Tampa Bay Rays | 93-60 | -- |
Cleveland Guardians | 79-75 | 14.5 |
Houston Astros | 77-77 | 16.5 |
New York Yankees | 89-64 (WC) | 4 |
Boston Red Sox | 84-70 (WC) | 9.5 |
Chicago White Sox | 78-76 (WC) | 15.5 |
Texas Rangers | 77-77 (OUT) | 16.5 |
Toronto Blue Jays | 76-78 (OUT) | 16.5 |
Baltimore Orioles | 75-79 (OUT) | 18.5 |
If the regular season ended today, here's a look at what the AL Wild Card round matchups would look like.
- Bye: (1) Tampa Bay Rays
- Bye: (2) Cleveland Guardians
- (3) Houston Astros vs. (6) Chicago White Sox
- (4) New York Yankees vs. (5) Boston Red Sox
National League standings and playoff picture
The only thing that’s changed in the National League is how crowded the Wild Card race has become. Barring a collapse over the season’s final week, we’re all but assured of the Cubs, Phillies, and Padres being the three Wild Card teams. That’s been the case for most of September, as has the Braves being the No. 3 seed and NL East champions.
How the seeding will work, though, is where things get interesting. The Cubs, Phillies, and Padres all began Saturday at 85-69, and they’d be seeded in that order; No. 4 Chicago would host No. 5 Philadelphia, and No. 6 San Diego would play at Atlanta.
Unfortunately for the Phillies, they close the regular season with a six-game homestand against the Brewers and Rays. Both teams are still fighting for the top seeds in their respective leagues, so don’t expect them to go lightly on Don Mattingly’s club.
Team | Record | Games back |
|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers | 93-60 | -- |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 79-75 | 2.0 |
Atlanta Braves | 77-77 | 6.0 |
Chicago Cubs | 85-69 (WC) | 11.0 |
Philadelphia Phillies | 85-69 (WC) | 11.0 |
San Diego Padres | 85-69 (WC) | 11.0 |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 80-74 (OUT) | 16.0 |
If the regular season ended today, here’s a look at what the NL Wild Card round matchups would look like.
- Bye: (1) Milwaukee Brewers
- Bye: (2) Los Angeles Dodgers
- (3) Atlanta Braves vs. (6) San Diego Padres
- (4) Chicago Cubs vs. (5) Philadelphia Phillies
MLB magic numbers: Which AL teams are closest to clinching a playoff spot?
Team | Magic number | Elimination number |
|---|---|---|
Tampa Bay Rays | CLINCHED | -- |
Cleveland Guardians | 7 | -- |
Houston Astros | 8 | -- |
New York Yankees | CLINCHED | -- |
Boston Red Sox | 2 | -- |
Chicago White Sox | 7 | 8 |
Texas Rangers | 8 | |
Toronto Blue Jays | 6 | |
Baltimore Orioles | 6 | |
Detroit Tigers | 3 | |
Seattle Mariners | 4 | |
Minnesota Twins | 3 | |
Kansas City Royals | -- | ELIMINATED |
Athletics | -- | ELIMINATED |
Los Angeles Angels | -- | ELIMINATED |
As we said, half of the AL playoff picture has essentially already been determined. Only three games separate the White Sox and Orioles, who are still mathematically alive despite entering Saturday with a 75-79 record. Let’s also not forget about the 76-78 Blue Jays, who are only two games back of the White Sox.
We recently referenced the 2008 Yankees, who missed the playoffs at 89-73 and watched the Dodgers win the NL West with 84 wins. If we created a portal and grabbed that Yankees team, they’d be the AL’s No. 4 seed if the playoffs began tomorrow, and it wouldn’t be close. Great job, all.
But hey, we objectively love chaos, so we’re in the minority in loving the AL playoff picture.
MLB magic numbers: Which NL teams are closest to clinching a playoff spot?
There’s not much else to say about the National League playoff picture. The teams that haven’t officially locked up a playoff berth should do so within the coming days, and the Diamondbacks’ tragic number dropped to four following Friday night’s loss to the Yankees.
Team | Magic number | Elimination number |
|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers | CLINCHED | -- |
Los Angeles Dodgers | CLINCHED | -- |
Atlanta Braves | CLINCHED | -- |
Chicago Cubs | 3 | -- |
Philadelphia Phillies | 4 | -- |
San Diego Padres | 4 | -- |
Arizona Diamondbacks | -- | 4 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | -- | ELIMINATED |
Miami Marlins | -- | ELIMINATED |
St. Louis Cardinals | -- | ELIMINATED |
Washington Nationals | -- | ELIMINATED |
Cincinnati Reds | -- | ELIMINATED |
New York Mets | -- | ELIMINATED |
San Francisco Giants | -- | ELIMINATED |
Colorado Rockies | -- | ELIMINATED |
It’s hard not to feel bad for the Rockies. Despite not blowing up their roster at the trade deadline, they're 13-31 since Aug. 1, and they haven't had a winning streak longer than four games all year. Warren Schaeffer’s club is two losses away from its fourth consecutive 100-loss season, and they’ve been outscored by nearly 200 runs.
But considering they went 43-119 last year, this technically means they’ve made significant progress. Yikes.
Add us as a preferred source on Google