All signs point to one of the most frenzied MLB trade markets in recent memory this winter. Start with what is generally acknowledged to be a pretty thin free agent class beyond Tarik Skubal, especially if you're looking for an impact bat who isn't a corner outfielder. Then consider just how many big names on rebuilding or underperforming teams are a year or two away from hitting the open market themselves. Add in the financial uncertainty that comes with a looming lockout and a potential salary cap — uncertainty that makes it difficult to throw money around in free agency — and we could be looking at a historic amount of offseason activity.
But how many of the stars currently finding themselves in the rumor mill will actually change teams? What's smoke, and what might wind up being real? And which buyers are poised to win big? Before the offseason goes into overdrive, it's time to put our prediction cap on: the players staying put, the ones most likely to be traded and those as good as gone (and where they might land).
Stars most likely to stay put and why
SS Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
I can absolutely see the Reds at least listening on Elly this offseason. The 2026 season landed with a thud, and with so many holes to fill in this lineup — and such little appetite from ownership to actually spend money — it's not hard to imagine Cincy trying to flip their franchise player for a potentially franchise-altering haul (especially since it seems like extension talks have already broken down). Then again, they hold all the cards here; De La Cruz has three years remaining before free agency, which means that if a team doesn't meet the Reds' asking price, they can just wait it out. It would take a truly gobsmacking offer to convince them to pull the trigger, and I'm skeptical one materializes.
OF Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves
The Braves would probably be willing to cash out on Acuña Jr. this offseason if they received a haul in return, given how difficult it's been to rely on him of late and the fact that he has just two team options remaining on his current deal. The problem is they'd be selling relatively low, coming off yet another injury-plagued season in which he no-showed in the playoffs. Atlanta will only move him if the market treats him like the former MVP he is, but right now, I don't think that's how the rest of the league sees it.
RHP Mason Miller, San Diego Padres
This is another case of mismatched value. Miller is an extraordinary talent, but he's also a reliever, and we saw this October how volatile that position can be even among the very best. Every contender would love to have him, but I don't think every contender wants to meet AJ Preller's no doubt sky-high asking price. With three years until free agency, the Padres don't have to act here unless they're bowled over.
SS Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
Henderson only has two years of team control remaining before free agency, where we know the Orioles aren't likely to re-sign him. So why not try to cash out now and get help for a roster in desperate need of it? For starters, Baltimore is still trying to build a contender for 2027, and that becomes much harder with Henderson gone. There's also the fact that the O's would be selling low, after Henderson struggled mightily at the plate for much of this past season. Unless a team is willing to pay the 2024 price for Henderson, I can't see a deal getting done.
1B Rafael Devers, San Francisco Giants
Devers was able to salvage a nightmarish start to his 2026 season, not that it did the Giants very much good. San Francisco would no doubt love to free up some money moving forward, and despite a successful year at the plate, the Devers deal remains underwater. And that's why I have a hard time seeing him actually change teams this winter: It would require the Giants to pay down a ton of the remaining money, and is Buster Posey actually willing to bite that bullet? Someone like Matt Chapman feels like a likelier bet if San Francisco is dead set on moving one of its high-priced vets.
Players with a 50-50 chance to stay or go
RHP Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have already come out and said they have no plans on trading Rasmussen, who will be making $20 million in 2027 before hitting free agency next winter. But it's not worth putting too much stock into that; remember that the Brewers said much the same about Freddy Peralta at this time last year. Tampa absolutely could hold on to the righty as they try to defend their pennant next season; then again, they could also keep the small-market cycle spinning and flip him for pieces that will help for years to come. It'll all depend on what the market will bear.
Potential landing spot: New York Mets
If he does move, the Mets would seem to make a lot of sense. We know that David Stearns doesn't love making long-term commitments to pitchers, and Rasmussen would just be a one-year rental (like Peralta before him). He'd instantly give New York's rotation the anchor it needs while allowing the team to keep its financial powder dry.
RHP George Kirby, Seattle Mariners
It feels all but certain that the Mariners will move one of their many homegrown arms for a bat this winter. And Kirby feels like the best bet; unlike Logan Gilbert, a free agent next winter, and Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller, who have three years of team control left, Kirby is right in the sweet spot two years away from hitting the market. He's also a bit of an enigma right now coming off of two down years, which could convince Seattle to move on.
Potential landing spot: St. Louis Cardinals
Why shouldn't the Cardinals swoop in here? They're a rotation away from real contention next year, and if they can fix what's gone wrong with Kirby, suddenly this is one of the more balanced rosters in the National League. They've also got plenty of young bats that the Mariners might be interested in.
SS CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals
I almost nudged Abrams into the "definitely traded" section, given how strange the vibes are between he and the Nats' new front office — a front office that did not acquire him, by the way! — and the fact that he's now only two years away from free agency. Abrams is an enticing player, but he's not a perfect player, and Washington could be motivated to sell high. Then again, the price tag will certainly be hefty, and there's no guarantee Paul Toboni doesn't just kick the can down to the trade deadline.
Potential landing spot: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have long been rumored to have interest in Abrams, which makes sense when you consider their current middle-infield situation. Trevor Story is on the outs in the final year of his deal, and Abrams would significantly lengthen a lineup that needs it.
C Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies
On the one hand, it's almost always a good idea to sell high on a career year from a player like Goodman who has such clear red flags (namely: swing and miss) in his profile. Then again, he's three years away from free agency at a premium position; the Rockies don't have to move him unless they get a wow offer, the sort they didn't get back at the deadline.
Potential landing spot: Cincinnati Reds
Cincy isn't going to spend money, but they're desperate for an injection of offense. So why not flip some of their homegrown arms to Colorado for a middle-of-the-order bat, now that Tyler Stephenson is moving on in free agency?
SS Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
The Rangers would no doubt love to get out from under the rest of Seager's deal, which runs through 2031 (his age-37 season; yikes). So why is he in this section? Well, for starters, he has an eight-team no-trade list. Add in the aforementioned contract, and the fact that he's a notoriously injury-prone player in decline as he enters his mid-30s, and it wouldn't be shocking if a deal fails to come together.
Potential landing spot: New York Yankees
Then again, have you seen how desperate the Yankees are for infield help? New York likely couldn't win a bidding war for someone like Abrams or Zach Neto, and Jeremy Peña is off-limits thanks to the Astros rivalry. If Seager is the best option, might they try to convince Texas to pay down some of the remaining money given how relatively little they have committed financially moving forward?
Trade candidates most likely to be moved
C Shea Langeliers, Athletics
Langeliers is just two years away from free agency, and while his year was cut short due to a knee injury, he returned before season's end and was among the league's premier sluggers at the plate. The A's can put together a pretty decent lineup even without Langeliers next season, and selling high on him now could be crucial to finally getting their rotation figured out.
Potential landing spot: New York Yankees
The Yankees desperately need one more impact bat and a righty partner for Austin Wells; why not kill two birds with one stone? They also have tons of homegrown arms the A's would likely have interest in. If a big swing for an infielder doesn't materialize, this would be a nice pivot.
SS Jeremy Peña, Houston Astros
We've seen this song and dance in Houston before; like Kyle Tucker, Peña is due to enter his walk year with more or less no hope of reaching an extension. The Astros have too many righty infielders anyway, so a deal would help balance this roster out and inject some needed young talent.
Potential landing spot: Atlanta Braves
The Braves have long made sense as a Peña suitor, given their glaring need at shortstop (especially with Mauricio Dubon off to free agency). With so many pitchers in the pipeline, surely they can flip one or two of them to get this done and revamp their offense.
SS Zach Neto, Los Angeles Angels
No, the Angels aren't under any pressure here; Neto is still three years away from free agency, after all. Then again, Los Angeles is thinking very long-term under new ownership, and the warts in Neto's game (he swings and misses a ton and he's a limited defender up the middle) mean that getting out early rather than late could make some sense.
Potential landing spot: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays should be in the market for bats who are still two or three years away from hitting the open market. Why not acquire Neto, bump him to second with Taylor Walls at short and give Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda some much-needed help?
LHP Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels
We might as well consider these guys together. Detmers feels like an even surer bet to be on the move this winter, given that he's a year closer to free agency than Neto is and how mercurial pitcher health can be. With so many teams eager to get their hands on such a live left arm, the Halos should do very well in a trade here.
Potential landing spot: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs need rotation stability, not just for 2027 but well into the future. Detmers has the potential to emerge as a genuine frontline arm, someone who can anchor things while Justin Steele, Cade Horton and Ben Brown try to get healthy. Chicago was reportedly in on Detmers at the deadline before a deal fell through; they won't miss twice.
OF Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
Kwan is entering his final year of team control, which means it's time to move on; this is what the Guardians do. Plus, a hot second half offers a sell-high opportunity that Cleveland would do well to capitalize on, Kwan is a player with very little margin for error, and you just have to look at how he started this past season to see how ugly it can get why his balls in play aren't dropping as frequently.
Potential landing spot: San Diego Padres
The Padres have been trying to figure out left field alongside Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. for a long time now. Kwan's OBP skills make him a great fit at the top of the order and a needed jolt of athleticism.
RHP Trevor Megill, Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers seem to be holding on to William Contreras in his walk year, but I don't think they'll do the same with Megill. For starters, relief pitcher is a far more volatile position, and Megill is about to turn 33 with a history of arm trouble in his recent past. Thank him for the memories and let some other contender worry about him.
Potential landing spot: Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays are also in the market for another big bat this winter, but you always need more high-leverage relief options, and Megill is one of the very best as long as he's healthy. He'd form a perfect one-two punch with Louis Varland at the end of games.
OF Teoscar Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers
This one feels more or less written in pen. The Dodgers need to open up a spot for their many talented young outfield prospects, and Hernandez is no longer living up to his contract. He's never been an asset as a defender, and now that he's no longer punishing left-handed pitching, it's hard to justify his spot in this lineup. With just one year left on his deal, an offense-needy team figures to take a flier on a guy with his raw power.
Potential landing spot: Seattle Mariners
Like, for example, Seattle, where Hernandez spent the 2023 season before heading to the Dodgers. The Mariners need a righty power bat, especially with Randy Arozarena hitting free agency, and there simply aren't a ton of options if you're not swimming in the deep end of the market financially.
OF Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
It's finally time, right? The Red Sox cannot afford to keep being precious about Duran's trade value; at this point, just find whatever value you can and open up a spot for someone who fits better alongside Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu and Masataka Yoshida. Paying eight figures for him in arbitration is a non-starter.
Potential landing spot: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies need outfield help, but I'm not sure they can win bidding wars for Arozarena or Seiya Suzuki. Duran wouldn't solve the lefty-heavy issues in this lineup, but who knows, maybe you can recapture his 2024 form in a more hitter-friendly park?
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