We're now more than two weeks past the MLB trade deadline, and yet the standings around the league remain nerve-wrackingly tight. The National League doesn't have any divisional races to speak of, but a full nine teams remain plausibly in the hunt for a Wild Card spot — making remaining strength of schedule a potentially decisive factor in a sprint to the finish in which an extra win or loss could make or break your season.
Odds are, if your remaining games are against weaker competition, it'll be easier to stack wins together, and vice versa. With that in mind, let's take a look at which teams stand to benefit from their upcoming schedules and which will need to play extremely well against tough competition.
NL Wild Card standings as of Aug. 19
Here's how the NL Wild Card race stacks up entering play on Wednesday, Aug. 19. The Cubs feel like they're on cruise control to the postseason, while there are eight teams within nine games of each other in the race for the final two spots. (We'll continue to include the Pirates, Reds and Nationals here, though that could change if all three continue to struggle.)
Team | Record | GB |
|---|---|---|
Chicago Cubs | 74-53 | +6.0 |
Philadelphia Phillies | 69-58 | +1.0 |
San Diego Padres | 68-59 | -- |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 66-61 | 2.0 |
St. Louis Cardinals | 65-62 | 3.0 |
Miami Marlins | 64-63 | 4.0 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 62-66 | 6.5 |
Cincinnati Reds | 60-66 | 7.5 |
Washington Nationals | 60-67 | 8.0 |
NL Wild Card standings by remaining strength of schedule
Team | Remaining opponent winning percentage |
|---|---|
Arizona Diamondbacks | .491 |
St. Louis Cardinals | .492 |
Washington Nationals | .494 |
San Diego Padres | .496 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | .507 |
Philadelphia Phillies | .520 |
Miami Marlins | .522 |
Chicago Cubs | .529 |
Cincinnati Reds | .557 |
Setting aside the Nats — who soft-sold at the deadline and have lost four in a row to fall nearly out of postseason contention — there are three clear winners here, as the D-backs, Cardinals and Padres all have remaining winning percentages under .500. St. Louis has two huge hurdles left ahead in the form of series against the Brewers, Dodgers and Phillies. Other than that, though, it's pretty smooth sailing: The only other currently winning team on the Cardinals' remaining schedule are the White Sox, with matchups against the Rockies, Giants (twice), Reds, Pirates, Nats and Orioles on tap.
The Padres have huge tilts against the Rays, Dodgers and Yankees, as well as potentially decisive series against the D-backs and Marlins, but they also have soft spots against the Rockies, Giants, Reds, Nats and Pirates. Arizona technically has the best remaining opponent winning percentage of the bunch, but that's slightly misleading; yes, the D-backs still have the Rockies, Giants, Royals and Reds ahead, but they also have the Cubs, Yankees, Phillies, Padres and Marlins to go after finishing up their current series at Fenway Park. Add in a tilt with the Wild Card-contending Rangers, and there are fewer soft spots here than you think.
And speaking of a lack of soft spots: Setting aside the Cubs (who are in the catbird seat) and the Reds (who are facing an uphill climb regardless of schedule), the big losers here feel like the Phillies and Marlins, both of which have a rugged closing slate. Philly gets the Angels and Nats, but they also have Milwaukee, Tampa, Atlanta (twice), Arizona and St. Louis to come, plus the suddenly surging Mets which would love to play spoiler. Miami, meanwhile, only has four series remaining against teams with currently losing records, plus 12 total games against the Dodgers, Braves and Cubs.
The Phillies could well have enough talent to hold on to a playoff spot regardless; a three-game head start certainly helps. The schedule won't help matters, though, especially if red-hot teams like San Diego and St. Louis can continue stacking wins.
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