Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The NL Wild Card race is tightening with several teams stumbling and the trade deadline looming as a potential turning point.
- Each struggling contender faces unique needs, from offensive boosts to pitching reinforcements, to reshape their playoff chances.
- The decisions each team makes over the next week will determine whether they recover in time to contend for October.
Does anyone want to actually make the playoffs in the National League? I'm asking because, while the Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves form quite the big three at the top of the standings, and the Chicago Cubs have finally played up to their potential of late, the rest of this postseason picture is ... dicey, to say the least.
The No. 4 seed Phillies lost four in a row entering Sunday amid a complete inability to score runs. The Cardinals have lost seven of 10, while the Marlins have lost a whopping 12 in a row. It's gotten to the point where the Padres clawing back to .500 is enough to make them among the hottest teams in the Wild Card hunt.
Somebody has to make it to October, though, and just who that someone is might come down to who makes the biggest swing at the trade deadline. Here's what each stumbling Wild Card contender needs to do to turn things around.
Philadelphia Phillies: Hitting, hitting and more hitting
Since the start of July, the Phillies have been one of the very worst offenses in baseball, largely due to a complete inability to get on base (25th in OBP). They need all sorts of regulars to start hitting better, but the problem has been particularly acute in the outfield, as Brandon Marsh regresses from his hot start and youngsters Justin Crawford and Gabriel Rincones Jr. simply haven't been good enough.
The Phillies need another bat, and it would help if that bat were an outfielder who could hit left-handed pitching to help balance out what is a lefty-heavy group right now. Ward fits that description to a T, with a .386 OBP in his first season in Baltimore. The power has more or less evaporated, but given his long track record as a 25- or 30-homer bat, I'm willing to bet that's a fluke — especially if he went to a far friendlier home park in Philly. It's still unclear whether the O's plan on selling, but unless they get really hot over the season's final week, they'd do well to consider moving on from at least a rental or two.
St. Louis Cardinals: Acquire pitching for 2027 and beyond
After a wildly promising start, the Cardinals have gone just 9-13 in July, making it awfully difficult for Chaim Bloom to get aggressive in adding to a team that still feels ahead of schedule. But despite the recent struggles, this team is still smack in the middle of the Wild Card hunt; what if there were a way for St. Louis to add value for the future without making too big a dent in their 2026 playoff odds?
The Mariners haven't been shy about shopping righty Emerson Hancock, as they look to trade from a pitching surplus to address an offense that's been miserable against left-handed pitching in particular. As it happens, the Cardinals have a righty bat in Ivan Herrera who mashes lefties, and plenty of catching depth to replace him both in 2026 and beyond without skipping much of a beat. Bloom would have to add at least one prospect to get this deal across the finish line, but Hancock gives St. Louis a much-needed mid-rotation starter to build around moving forward.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Can you trade for a whole new bullpen?
Pittsburgh's problem isn't hard to figure out: Their bullpen ranks 24th in baseball in reliever ERA so far this season, and those numbers get even worse since June 1. The Pirates have a surprisingly dynamite offense, and a rotation that has loads of potential despite the up-and-down performance of guys like Paul Skenes, Braxton Ashcraft and Bubba Chandler. They have all the makings of a legitimate contender if they can figure out how to get outs late in games.
The dream would be a blockbuster for Padres closer Mason Miller, but that seems less and less likely as San Diego climbs back into the Wild Card race themselves. (More on that in just a moment.) But while the true top-end relief arms don't appear to be available at this year's deadline, Pittsburgh can still find high-leverage help in Kansas City, where Lynch IV has been dynamite against both righties and lefties this season. He'd do a lot to stabilize this unit, and while he shouldn't be the only reliever the Pirates add, he offers legitimate late-inning upside without breaking the bank.
San Diego Padres: AJ Preller buys one more time
Everybody's been writing the Padres' obituary in recent days, but San Diego forgot to write back. A sweep of the Marlins over the weekend has this team back to .500 and just two games back of the final Wild Card spot — and in AJ Preller's world, that's a good enough excuse to buy one more time. (Especially since Preller might not be long for this job as the Padres welcome new ownership who might want their own hand-picked exec in charge.)
San Diego's stars have started to turn it on at the plate of late, but the Padres need better rotation depth to supplement Michael King with both Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta still a way's away from returning. But Preller doesn't need to give up what's left of his depleted farm system in a run at someone like Tarik Skubal or Joe Ryan; with King, Musgrove and Pivetta in a potential postseason rotation, the Padres mostly just need a mid-rotation arm or two, and Mize fits the bill. Detroit is trending toward selling, and they'll be sure to move Mize as the righty is putting together a sensational walk year. You'd have no problem having him start Game 2 or 3 of a playoff series, and with the rest of the talent San Diego has, that's plenty good enough.
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