Ranking Fernando Tatis Jr. trade suitors as Padres collapse continues

Just when it seemed like the San Diego Padres' slow-motion collapse couldn't get any more painful, lo and behold, a Jake Cronenworth error led to a Teoscar Hernandez grand slam that turned a 3-0 lead into a 4-3 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday night. That's now seven losses in a row, four of them against their rivals up I-5, and a Major League worst 14-26 mark since May 18.

At this point, not even AJ Preller can justify buying at this year's trade deadline. San Diego has dropped back below .500 for the first time since early April, four games back of the final NL Wild Card spot — with five teams between them and a playoff berth. With a rotation in tatters, an offense that ranks among the league's worst since the start of May and very little money or prospect capital with which to improve, it sure feels like it's time to stick a fork in this era of Padres baseball.

The problem, though, is that the only path out of this current mess might involve trading the face of the franchise: Fernando Tatis Jr.

Why Padres might be forced to consider Fernando Tatis Jr. trade

This is not the first time that Tatis Jr. has found his name at the center of trade speculation. On the heels of a Wild Card Round loss to the Cubs last October, USA Today's Bob Nightengale floated the possibility, though he made clear that the Padres "certainly don’t want to trade him" and nothing else came of it as the offseason progressed.

Staring down an even more disappointing season, though, San Diego might soon find itself with little choice. The 2026 campaign has made abundantly clear that this team, as currently constituted, isn't going anywhere. Major change is needed — but with a payroll that already ranks in the top 10 in the sport and a farm system left threadbare from years of win-now moves, how exactly is that change going to come about? Preller doesn't have much money to spend, and he's not going to be winning many bidding wars on the trade market.

The only solution, then, would be to move one of the team's big names in order to reset. Therein lies the problem, though: Pretty much all of San Diego's big names, from Manny Machado to Xander Bogaerts to Jackson Merrill to Jake Cronenworth, are struggling to mightily that their contracts are essentially untradable. The only way another team is taking on the seven years remaining on Machado's (at nearly $40 million per year) or Bogaerts' (over $25 million per) deals would be if San Diego paid down the money significantly or attached significant value to them, which would defeat the purpose entirely.

Which brings us to Tatis Jr. Even amid the worst offensive season of his career, he's still a tremendous defender and baserunner, a big part of the reason why he's been worth 1.7 fWAR through the first half of the season despite just five homers and a 103 wRC+. Yes, he still has eight years left on his contract, but that will only take him through his age-35 season; at 27 years old, he still has lots of good baseball left in him, and he's shown signs of busting out of his season-long slump of late, with a .865 OPS in June.

Acquiring him won't be for everybody, but someone will talk themselves into giving up at least a couple of prospects for one of the more physically gifted players in the sport who's still smack in his prime. That leaves his contract as the only movable asset the Padres have, which means that a trade might be inevitable if San Diego decides it's time to finally stop trying to fit this square peg into a round hole.

Most likely Fernando Tatis Jr. trade destinations if San Diego moves on

So that begs the question: Where might he wind up? Again, his market won't be red-hot; this won't be anything like the Juan Soto sweepstakes. But his skill set, and the paucity of impact position players who become available via free agency and trade these days. means that several big spenders could be interested.

6. Houston Astros

I have no idea how Houston would make the finances work, not with owner Jim Crane reluctant to continue paying into the luxury tax with diminishing returns. Then again, I thought that last year, and the Astros responded by taking on all of what's left of Carlos Correa's contract. This team always seems to be sniffing around big names, and they absolutely have a need in the outfield alongside Cam Smith moving forward. Plus, they should be able to get out from under Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker pretty soon if they need the extra breathing room. Don't count it out.

5. St. Louis Cardinals

Admittedly, I'm including St. Louis here in part because the thought of Tatis Jr. playing at Busch Stadium in front of the self-proclaimed Best Fans in Baseball was just too amusing to pass up. But you can also talk yourself into Tatis Jr. being an on-field fit for a Cardinals team that appears to be way ahead of schedule.

With Lars Nootbaar a free agent after the 2027 season and Victor Scott II flaming out as a big-league hitter, there are long-term questions about the outfield in St. Louis. Tatis Jr. could play all three outfield spots, giving Jordan Walker the running mate he deserves and making this lineup even scarier moving forward. Plus, after offloading several veteran contracts this past winter, there's payroll space to spare.

4. Chicago Cubs

Speaking of NL Central teams who are going to find themselves needing outfield help pretty soon: The Cubs are set to potentially lose both Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki to free agency this winter, opening up both corner spots alongside Pete Crow-Armstrong. Top outfield prospect Josiah Hartshorn might not be able to hack it defensively on the grass, while Kevin Alcantara appears to have hit his ceiling as a platoon bat.

Why not reroute that money toward a Tatis Jr. deal? Chicago should absolutely have the payroll space, and he'd go a long way to keeping this lineup among the best in the National League. Granted, the Cubs also have pitching questions to answer, but they're going to need more star power if they want to finally dethrone the Dodgers.

3. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have been desperate to find a righty-hitting outfielder ever since the Nick Castellanos situation blew up in their face. Why not take a big swing on a player who can finally offer some help to sluggers like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber?

Philly also has some belt-tightening concerns to address, but Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott and Adolis Garcia come off the books at the end of the season, while Zack Wheeler is likely to retire and free up some $42 milion in space after 2027. This team has several holes to fill and not much prospect depth from which to deal, but the on-field fit is too clean to disregard Dave Dombrowski's desire to always land the biggest fish.

2. New York Yankees

The Yankees are also about to come into some payroll space, with Trent Grisham ($22 million), Jazz Chisholm Jr. ($10 million) and David Bednar ($9 million) all approaching free agency and Giancarlo Stanton's megadeal finally running out after 2027. An outfield of Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Tatis Jr. would be electric, and it doesn't seem like either Jasson Dominguez or Spencer Jones are going to fulfill fan expectations. New York can afford Tatis Jr., and he absolutely fits a need as the Yankees look to keep this lineup humming as Judge enters his decline years.

1. Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays made real runs at both Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker before coming up short with both, so we know that they're interested in 1) making a splash addition to this lineup and 2) adding an outfielder. This is a group that skews pretty left-handed as is, making Tatis Jr. a natural fit. Plus, Toronto has the money to burn, even after pouring $700 million into Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Dylan Cease over the last 18 months — they were reportedly willing to go higher for Tucker than anyone else. If they can't turn things around this season, why not take a big swing?

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