Spencer Strider's Braves injury return should come with one glaring condition

Spencer Strider will begin a throwing program this week. The 27-year-old has not pitched since June 12, when he was sent to the IL with right elbow inflammation. Strider has struggled in just eight starts this season, posting an inflated 5.31 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.

Atlanta Braves manager Walt Weiss told reporters the Braves "can't count" on Strider returning for the playoffs, but there's still hope at least. The question, should Strider breeze through his recovery process, is what role should he step into down the stretch?

Braves need to be cautious with Spencer Strider's workload

On one hand, the Braves could really use Strider come October. For all the supposed depth their pitching staff has to offer, Atlanta has precious few dependable starters beyond Chris Sale. If there's a second Braves starter to feel good about, it's probably Bryce Elder. And Braves fans know the risks associated with Bryce Elder.

Grant Holmes, Marín Pérez and newcomer Tyler Mahle are all fine regular-season innings-eaters, but none are equipped to hold the Dodgers or Cubs at bay in a do-or-die playoff game. The Braves' farm system is loaded with compelling young arms, including A.J. Smith-Shawver, J.R. Ritchie and Owen Murphy, but none are fully established in the majors. Spencer Schwellenbach, the Braves' second-best pitcher a year ago, has spent the entire season on the IL, without progressing to face live batters. His own timeline to return is clouded.

The Braves should be all-in on this season. With the Dodgers scuttling in recent weeks, there's a path through the National League. This is a very talented roster with ample high-level postseason experience.

Strider, despite all his struggles these past couple years, probably has the best stuff of the non-Sale Braves, with strong underlying metrics (3.50 xERA and .188 xBA) before the injury. In short, Strider was dealt some bad luck early in the season, but he's still missing barrels and challenging opposing hitters.

On the other hand, the Braves are heavily invested in Strider through 2028, with a $22 million AAV on his contract. Beyond the money, Strider has not put together a fully healthy campaign since 2023. The Braves need to consider the long-term ramifications of rushing him back, especially if he's to take on a starter's workload.

The solution — if Strider suffers no more setbacks in his recovery — couldn't be more obvious.

Braves need to put Spencer Strider in the bullpen

The Braves need to consider a short-term move to the bullpen. It's the simplest compromise — and perhaps a foregone conclusion, depending on just how quickly Strider is able to return. And that, again, is assuming he's even able to return.

Strider's fastball velocity has dipped dramatically since his All-Star campaign in 2023. He missed all but two starts in 2024 and has eight starts under his belt in 2026. Atlanta needs to monitor his pitch count. Moreover, there's a chance his stuff plays up in concentrated one- or two-inning bursts. Opponents are slugging .600 against Strider's fastball this season and .618 against his slider. He is a flyball pitcher, with an elevated walk rate that points to command issues. That can get you in trouble quickly.

If the Braves trot Strider out as a starter in October, especially given his already-shaky track record on the postseason stage, there's a good chance he just ends up digging Atlanta a hole. If he's coming out of the bullpen, he can put more juice into every pitch, without the mental gymnastics of self-preservation required in a start. If he can get his fastball up a tick and put more RPMs on the slider, Strider — who has always been mostly a two-pitch guy — could start to look like a dominant, high-leverage option in later innings.

At the very least, the Braves should use Strider as a bulk guy, perhaps piggybacking off of Holmes, Pérez or whichever starter Atlanta feels least confident in. That strategy feels snakebitten to me, but it's better than asking Strider to give you five or six innings, then draining the bullpen when he can only give you two or three.

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