Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- A key Atlanta starter exited Friday’s game with concerning arm issues, landing on the injured list just as the team’s playoff hopes intensify.
- The Braves’ rotation depth is now a critical weakness, with too many unproven arms and too few reliable options for October baseball.
- One controllable ace remains available at the deadline, and Atlanta’s front office must decide whether to gamble its future for a title shot this year.
As if allowing seven runs in just three innings of work wasn't concerning enough, Spencer Strider departed Friday's game against the New York Mets with the trainer after throwing three straight sub-90 mph fastballs. Later on, it was revealed that Strider was placed on the 15-day IL with elbow inflammation, which certainly doesn't bode well for the oft-injured right-hander.
Rotation depth was a question even with Strider healthy, and now the Atlanta Braves' situation looks far more dire. They have a big enough cushion and enough internal options (J.R. Ritchie, Didier Fuentes) to survive in the short term, but for a team with World Series aspirations, it feels like the Braves are an arm short with Strider being so hard to rely on. Fortunately, the trade deadline has not passed yet, and Strider's injury should lead Atlanta towards making this trade with the Minnesota Twins for Joe Ryan.
Why the Braves need to make a major starting pitching trade
Atlanta's 3.53 rotation ERA ranks fifth in the Majors, and it's not even as if Strider was performing at his best prior to his most recent injury. But it still feels like the Braves need to address their rotation, because there's a lot of uncertainty.
Chris Sale is still elite, but what are the odds he stays healthy for the entire season? Guys like Bryce Elder, Martin Perez and Grant Holmes have pitched mostly well for the Braves this season, but can you rely on them to win you playoff games? Are rookies like Ritchie and Fuentes really ready to start in October, or even regular-season games? Atlanta should get at least a couple of Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver back before the postseason, but is that really a guarantee? We haven't even seen Schwellenbach and Smith-Shawver pitch in nearly a full calendar year.
We know the Braves will score runs, and we know this bullpen is quite good, but the rotation situation felt uncomfortable before Strider's injury. A guy like Joe Ryan can provide needed stability for Atlanta right now, while giving the Braves a No. 2 starter for this postseason and next. He won't come cheap, though.
This Braves-Twins deal brings one of MLB's most valuable trade chips to Atlanta
If the Twins wind up trading Ryan, they'd probably want starting pitching back in return. Fortunately, the Braves have enough depth to part with two starters in exchange for the righty.
The Braves would be acquiring Ryan — likely the second-most valuable starter available at the deadline (after Tarik Skubal), thanks to his additional year of cheap club control — but they'd be trading two valuable pitchers to do it. Waldrep is a big-league-ready starter who thrived down the stretch last season, and Owen Murphy is one of Atlanta's top pitching prospects.
While both fan bases might hate this deal, there's reason to believe it makes sense for both sides.
Would the Braves make this trade?
This is the year for the Braves to go all-in. Even with their current three-game losing streak, their 45-24 record is the best in all of baseball. Atlanta has been the most consistent team in the sport this year, yet with all the injuries they've had, it feels like we haven't even seen them at their best.
Adding an All-Star like Ryan into the mix only makes them deeper and scarier. Can you imagine a postseason rotation consisting of Sale, Ryan, Schwellenbach and Elder? How many teams are beating that group, especially when the Braves have such a good lineup and bullpen behind them?
Giving up Waldrep and Murphy hurts, but are the Braves not in a position to do this? Even without those guys, Atlanta has a slew of young pitchers who are either MLB-ready or close to it. Plus, it's not like you'd be giving those guys up for a rental. Ryan has another year of cheap club control, and he could easily be extended as well.
It's never fun parting with valuable players, but acquiring a controllable frontline starter without giving up the top prospect in the system (Cam Caminiti) feels like a clear win for Atlanta.
Verdict: Yes
Would the Twins make this trade?
The Twins would likely be the harder team to convince in this scenario, because they've shown no interest in trading Ryan. They held onto him amid their deadline firesale last season, and they held onto him through this past offseason as well. Additionally, are we sure the Twins will be sellers?
Minnesota might be 32-39 entering Saturday, but they're only 6.5 games back in the AL Central and only 3.0 games back of the third Wild Card spot. The Twins organization has said repeatedly that it expected to be competitive this season, and thanks to a weak American League, they're right in the thick of the Wild Card race.
If it were me, I'd trade Ryan in this deal, but I also would've traded him last July. If the Twins decide to sell, trading Ryan makes all the sense in the world, as not only would this be the last time he could be traded with the ability to make two playoff runs with his new team but he's also already avoided one scary arm injury this season.
In other words, his value could only go down from here, either due to being a rental next season or suffering an injury. Trading him for Waldrep, a pitcher the Twins could plug into their rotation when healthy for the next half-decade at least, and Murphy, an uber-talented pitching prospect already in Triple-A, feels like a win. Waldrep has already thrived at the big-league level before (2.88 ERA in 10 appearances and nine starts last season), and Murphy has the stuff to develop into a viable mid-rotation arm.
Verdict: Reluctantly, if they decide to sell
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