The race for the final American League Wild Card spot is as unique as it gets. Whether it be the Detroit, Minnesota Twins, Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners or (insert more AL pretenders here), teams that sold at the MLB trade deadline with the expectation they'd eventually fall out of the race are still in it. The Rangers, with a record of 61-63, are a half-game up on the competition. They could be behind as many as five teams by the end of the day.
And that's the fun of the AL Wild Card standings this season. Sure, the Yankees/Rays and Red Sox are guaranteed two of the spots. The third and final postseason guarantee is up for grabs. The American League has been unpredictable all year long, so don't be surprised if this comes down to the final week. Thankfully, we have some help in predicting the AL Wild Card race, courtesy of Opta's supercomputer, a projection model that takes statistics like strength of schedule and even injuries into account. Here's what they say.
AL Wild Card standings are up for grabs
Seed | Team | Expected Wins | Expected Losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
WC1 | Yankees | 90 | 72 | 98.2 |
WC2 | Red Sox | 87.8 | 74.2 | 95.2 |
WC3 | Tigers | 81.2 | 80.8 | 38.7 |
OUT | Guardians | 79.8 | 82.2 | 25.4 |
OUT | Blue Jays | 79.3 | 82.7 | 21 |
OUT | Rangers | 78.9 | 83.1 | 29.3 |
OUT | Orioles | 78.5 | 83.5 | 15.7 |
OUT | Twins | 77.6 | 84.4 | 12.5 |
OUT | Mariners | 77 | 85 | 15.0 |
Why do the Rangers and Mariners have better AL Playoff hopes?
As bad as the AL Wild Card race is, it pales in comparison to the AL West. The Astros lead the division despite being just a few games over .500. Houston was considered a seller as the trade deadline neared, but Jim Crane woke up one day and realized the Astros were within striking distance of the Rangers and Mariners. Crane was proven right, and Houston has the best shot of any AL West contender to win the worst division in baseball.
Yet, the reason the Rangers and Mariners have a higher postseason percentage than their competitors is because Opta factors in their AL West chances. It really is that simple.
Why the Tigers are favored to win the AL Wild Card
Opta heavily favors run differential, and despite the Tigers struggles against the Chicago White Sox over the weekend, Detroit still ranks well in that department. In fact, if the only metric you had at your disposal was run differential, you'd assume the Tigers were winning the AL Central by a wide margin. I'd challenge that opinion, though, as not everyone is as familiar with Tigers baseball as I am. Detroit's bullpen stinks, as always. They can't hit with runners in scoring position. The earth is round, not flat. You get the picture.
MLB Playoff Picture: Where will AL Wild Card teams play?
- No. 1 (BYE): Tampa Bay Rays
- No. 2 (BYE): Chicago White Sox
- (3) Houston Astros vs (6) Detroit Tigers
- (4) New York Yankees vs (5) Boston Red Sox
That's it! If the Tigers win the AL Wild Card, they will face the Astros assuming Houston wins the AL West. Yet, that is far from a guarantee these days, with the Rangers and Mariners still very much in the race for the division. While the expanded postseason format rubs some baseball fans the wrong way, it also leads to more MLB Playoff action and, thus, more drama. What else could you really want?
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