With just two weeks left in the 2026 MLB season, only a few key races truly remain up for grabs. This includes the AL West, AL Central, and Wild Card battles in both the American League and National League. The Astros and White Sox have emerged as favorites in both AL divisions, respectively. For the final AL Wild Card spot, the Guardians/White Sox, Rangers and Blue Jays are within two games of each other. In the National League Wild Card race, the Cubs, Phillies, Padres and Diamondbacks are fighting for three spots. Got it? Got it.
Predicting the playoff races at this stage of the season isn't as difficult as the beginning of the campaign, but it's still not easy. Remaining strength of schedule, for example, can play a huge role, as well as in-division matchups. The Guardians-White Sox series looms large to start this week. The Padres and Diamondbacks face off to end the season.
Thankfully, Opta is here to help. The projections model we've coined the supercomputer uses an analytics-based system to predict the final MLB standings. It's not always right, but it does have a slightly better chance of making the correct predictons than we do.
Supercomputer predicts the final American League standings
The Rays and Yankees are the only American League teams to clinch playoff spots at this juncture, and they should soon be followed by the Red Sox. It's as if the AL East is playing in an entirely different league than the Central and West, where teams lingering around .500 could very well win the division.
The Central and West are essentially battling for three spots. Two of those will go to the winner of each division, while the third AL Wild Card spot should be claimed by the second-place team with the best record. The margin of error is slim, but none of these squads has really set themselves apart. The supercomputer thinks said battles will go to the bitter end.
AL East
Seed | Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Rays | 97 | 65 | 100 |
2 | Yankees | 94.4 | 67.6 | 100 |
3 | Red Sox | 87.6 | 74.4 | 99.8 |
4 | Blue Jays | 80.1 | 81.9 | 20.4 |
5 | Orioles | 78.4 | 83.6 | 3.6 |
AL Central
Seed | Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | White Sox | 83 | 79 | 88.1 |
2 | Guardians | 82.3 | 79.7 | 67 |
3 | Tigers | 77.7 | 84.3 | 2.2 |
4 | Twins | 75.2 | 86.8 | 0 |
5 | Royals | 71.1 | 90.9 | 0 |
AL West
Seed | Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Astros | 81.5 | 80.5 | 79 |
2 | Rangers | 80.5 | 81.5 | 39.8 |
3 | Mariners | 75.2 | 86.8 | 0.2 |
4 | A's | 65.7 | 96.3 | 0 |
5 | Angels | 63.5 | 98.5 | 0 |
AL Playoff Picture
- No. 1 (BYE): Tampa Bay Rays
- No. 2 (BYE): Chicago White Sox
- (3) Houston Astros vs (6) Cleveland Guardians
- (4) New York Yankees vs (5) Boston Red Sox
Here where this projected playoff picture could get tricky. If the Guardians overtake the White Sox in the AL Central, then Cleveland could clinch a first-round bye. The Astros and Rangers are both floundering around .500. If there were ever an argument for re-seeding once the postseason begins — that is, division champions do not receive an immediate advantage over Wild Card teams — this is the season. There's a good chance all three Wild Card teams in the AL have a better record than the Astros. None of it will matter.
Supercomputer predicts the final National League standings
The Brewers and Dodgers have clinched postseason berths in the National League, while Milwaukee is the only team to clinch their division...so far. The Dodgers are expected to soon join them, and the Braves aren't far behind. The National League standings are essentially decided. We know the teams that will be making the playoffs, minus one, and that battle has everything to do with the third NL Wild Card spot.
The supercomputer gives the Padres the overwhelming edge to win that spot, as they should. San Diego has been red-hot of late. Still, unless they widen their gap, an end-of-season series against Arizona will decide which team heads to the playoffs, and who is stuck watching from home.
NL East
Seed | Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Braves | 94.5 | 67.5 | 100 |
2 | Phillies | 88.4 | 73.6 | 93.7 |
3 | Marlins | 79.5 | 82.5 | 0.1 |
4 | Nationals | 75.9 | 86.1 | 0 |
5 | Mets | 74.4 | 87.6 | 0 |
NL Central
Seed | Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brewers | 100.3 | 61.7 | 100 |
2 | Cubs | 89.6 | 72.4 | 99.7 |
3 | Pirates | 80.8 | 81.2 | 0.2 |
4 | Cardinals | 79.6 | 82.4 | 0 |
5 | Reds | 74.3 | 87.7 | 0 |
NL West
Seed | Team | Projected wins | Projected losses | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dodgers | 98.7 | 63.3 | 100 |
2 | Padres | 87.5 | 74.5 | 80.7 |
3 | Diamondbacks | 85 | 77 | 25.7 |
4 | Giants | 67.4 | 94.6 | 0 |
5 | Rockies | 61 | 101 | 0 |
NL Playoff Picture
- No. 1 (BYE): Milwaukee Brewers
- No. 2 (BYE): Los Angeles Dodgers
- (3) Atlanta Braves vs (6) San Diego Padres
- (4) Chicago Cubs vs (5) Philadelphia Phillies
Yes, those are the teams you're familiar with. The Braves and Phillies still seem destined to face off at some point this postseason. It would be the third time in five years that has happened, and the pair are bitter rivals. For once, the Padres could have a path to avoid the Dodgers — a rival who has gotten the upper hand on them too many times to count — until the NLCS, but we'll see.
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