The Philadelphia Phillies opened their four-game homestand against the Atlanta Braves with a 5-2 loss, as Chris Sale narrowly outperformed Cristopher Sánchez in a battle of Cy Young-worthy southpaws. That drops Philadelphia five games back of Atlanta in the NL East standings with less than a month remaining in the regular season.
At this point, the Phillies overtaking Atlanta would require a Herculean effort. Then again, three wins to finish out this series gets Philadelphia more than halfway there. It's not as if the Phillies — the hottest team in baseball in August — aren't talented enough, and we've seen Philadelphia finish the regular season on a high note before. These Phillies will need to step up for the rest of this series, and the rest of this season, in order to topple the Braves:
RHP Orion Kerkering
Not to pick on Orion Kerkering, but he was responsible for the back-breaker last night when Mauricio Dubón pulverized a hanging sweeper for a two-run homer in the eighth inning. Kerkering's ERA has now ballooned to 4.12 on the season, with a 1.29 WHIP and 57 strikeouts in 54.2 innings.
Under the hood, Kerkering's numbers are much better. He still gets a ton of swing-and-miss and the sweeper, which he leans on so heavily, is a genuinely elite pitch (.184 AVG). That said, it's hard not to wonder about the psychic damage done by Kerkering's infamous, season-ending gaffe against the Dodgers in the 2025 NLDS. Kerkering is hard to trust in those higher-leverage spots, made no easier by his propensity for walks and flyballs.
And therein lies the problem. The Phillies bullpen is well-stocked with solid options, but absent the injured Brad Keller, Jhoan Durán and Jonathan Bowlan are the only unimpeachable high-leverage arms. The Phillies are missing that second setup man for the seventh or eighth inning. Rookie Alex McFarlane might assume that role in time, but the Phillies' bullpen is both statistically excellent and functionally untrustworthy, with Kerkering having now allowed five runs in his last 3.2 innings pitched.
RHP Zack Wheeler
After his heroic midseason return from shoulder surgery, Zack Wheeler hit a roadblock in August. The most logical culprit: fatigue. He's 36 years old, after all, and the injury he dealt with — thoracic outlet syndrome — has undermined plenty of great pitchers before.
Wheeler made six starts last month with a 6.26 ERA and 5.87 FIP. He pitched six innings with one run allowed in his most recent outing against the Angels, but the Braves are a whole new challenge. Wheeler's track record of clutch performances late in the year is overwhelming; he typically finds a way to show up in big moments.
Beyond just the second game of this series, the Phillies need Wheeler to establish a rhythm and start pitching more like his perennial All-Star self. The path to the World Series (or the division crown) for Philadelphia starts on the mound. This rotation is damn near impenetrable, on paper, when Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter are on like this. Wheeler, oddly enough, feels like the weak link all of a sudden. There's reason to believe he can get out of this funk, as few pitchers more deserve the benefit of the doubt, but the pressure is on Wheeler to come through.
DH Kyle Schwarber
Lost in the glee of a triumphant month for the Phillies were Kyle Schwarber's quiet struggles at the plate. Since the start of August, the veteran slugger has a .195 average and .723 OPS with more than twice as many strikeouts (41) as walks (20). Schwarber has always offset a high-strikeout diet with elite slug, but even by his hot-or-cold standard, the 33-year-old is skewing a bit too far in one direction at the moment.
Schwarber is still the most fearsome leadoff hitter on the East Coast. Philadelphia should not panic about a quiet month at the plate when the overall body of work is so thoroughly impressive. Schwarber leads the NL with 40 homers on the season and he's better than most power-over-contact hitters when it comes to finding his way out of a slump.
Even if the Phillies don't panic, however, Schwarber ought to feel some pressure to build back into a better rhythm before the postseason. If Schwarber is striking out every other at-bat in a tight Wild Card matchup, it's going to severely hamstring Philadelphia's success. The same goes for the NL East race, although that requires a more immediate solution on Schwarber's part.
SS Trea Turner
Hanging like a black cloud over the Phillies' success this season is the precipitous decline of Trea Turner, whose contract runs through 2033 at $27.3 million annually. That will be his age-40 season. Right now, the 33-year-old is producing a career-worst .239 average and .669 OPS, with troubling regression on the defensive end. Turner's strikeouts have spiked, up almost five percent (16.7 to 21.6) in frequency compared to last season. His -8 OAA (outs above average) at shortstop ranks in MLB's fourth percentile.
Turner can still burn rubber on the base paths. He's well protected in the lineup, hitting second behind Kyle Schwarber, with Bryce Harper and Luis Arráez on cleanup duty behind him. The Phillies continue to place their faith in Turner, well, because it's the only real option. There were concerns about his imminent decline in 2025, but Turner put together the best defensive season of his career and was the NL batting champ. So clearly, he's still capable of more than this. The résumé, the talent, means Philadelphia will not give up all hope.
That said, if Turner continues to function as a black hole near the top of the lineup, it will be difficult for the Phillies to catch Atlanta, much less compete for a World Series. The Phillies need their superstar shortstop to play like a superstar shortstop. The time to catch a spark is running out, unfortunately.
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