Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Orioles sits well under .500 and 12 games back in their division with the trade deadline approaching.
- Mike Elias faces mounting pressure to show aggressive moves or risk losing his job after two straight non-playoff seasons.
- The next decision could involve trading for Tarik Skubal, but that deal won't come cheap.
Mike Elias didn't expect his Baltimore Orioles tenure to go this way. The O's won over 100 games in 2023 and had one of the best farm systems in all of baseball. Due to their financial limitations, Elias opted to build from within, rather than overspending on external options. Sure, there was the Corbin Burnes phase, but by and large when the Orioles have made a move, it hasn't impacted their prospect list. That could change at the MLB trade deadline this season.
Should the Orioles miss the postseason in 2026, it'd be their second-straight season doing so. Baltimore hasn't won a playoff game since 2023. So far this year, they're well under .500 and 12 games back in the division. While Elias made Brandon Hyde the fall guy for the Orioles failures last year, his replacement, Craig Albernaz, hasn't inspired much confidence, either. If the O's are going to make a run after the All-Star Break, they need to do something big. That starts with Tarik Skubal.
Why the Orioles could trade for Tarik Skubal
Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Elias is unlikely to sell big at the MLB trade deadline, but rather buy to avoid disaster. For Elias, that'd be another losing season, and his butt squarely on the hot seat entering 2027. The Orioles could easily pivot, trading away the likes of Adley Rutschman for proven MLB talent, but that does Elias few favors with the fanbase and an ownership group that is tired of waiting on his grand vision.
Trading for Skubal comes with significant risk. First and foremost, he's a free agent at the end of this season. Skubal could leave Baltimore just as Burnes did before him. In fact, that's the most likely scenario here. But, if Nightengale's report about Elias and the Orioles is true, they're not playing for next season — at least not yet.
What Tarik Skubal would cost the Baltimore Orioles
The template for any Skubal trade is relatively simple at this point. The Tigers want controllable prospects who are near the major leagues. Irish is a top-100 prospect in baseball who can play first base and the outfield. He's 22 years old and making his way through the Orioles system rather quickly. Luis De Leon is Baltimore's top pitching prospect and expected to make his debut at some point this season with the big-league squad. Wells, a bit further down in the O's official rankings, projects as a back-end starting pitcher, and is awaiting his call in Triple-A Norfolk.
Does Mike Elias need Tarik Skubal to avoid an Orioles firing?
I'd argue that a trade like this one — which only costs Elias one top-100 prospect — could help his standing in the Orioles organization. Adding Skubal alone won't save Elias' job, but it would go a long way in showing he's willing to make difficult decisions with his young players in hopes of winning now.
However, barring a major turnaround in the second half, trading for Skubal also risks wasting prospect capital for virtually nothing. Yes, a two-time AL Cy Young winner can draw more fans to the ballpark, but only every fifth day. The American League Wild Card race is wide open. The O's, as of this writing, are just 3.5 games back. That's the number Elias and his front office will examine in the coming weeks when deciding what to do at the deadline.
If the team is still teetering closer to August, expect Elias to swing for controllable starting pitching, rather than an ace like Skubal who is sure to test the free-agent market this winter.
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