Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Orioles possess enough catcher depth to consider moving Adley Rutschman despite his strong season performance.
- The Padres struggling offense and thin catching depth make them a prime candidate for a high-impact trade acquisition.
- The Padres' aggressive GM faces a critical decision that could define their playoff chances this postseason.
The Baltimore Orioles may not want to trade Adley Rutschman, but they've assembled the catcher depth necessary to do so. Samuel Basallo is a perfectly-capable defensive catcher and a prospect on the rise. Basallo's .790 OPS makes Rutschman expendable, even if he is the Orioles top lineup presence so far this season. Adley also has another year left on an affordable arbitration deal.
There are plenty of teams that could utilize Rutschman behind home plate, not least of which is the San Diego Padres. The Padres catcher fWAR is just 1.5 if you add up their entire depth chart. Rutschman alone has an fWAR of 1.9. AJ Preller is known to take big swings at the MLB trade deadline, and if this is to be the Padres team that finally unseats the Dodgers in the postseason, they will need more from a lineup currently lacking the usual power from Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr.
What a Padres trade for Adley Rutschman would look like
I should note that FanSided's Robert Murray called a Padres trade for Rutschman unlikely, but certainly wouldn't put it past Preller to call Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias about his 28-year-old backstop.
"I’m sure A.J. Preller will call on Tarik Skubal — he loves a star player — but this doesn’t feel like the season to go all in on a rental. If they can add an Adley Rutschman type (highly unlikely) who is controllable, then yes. But a rental should not be the focus," Murray wrote in The Baseball Insiders newsletter.
Any trade for Rutschman would not come cheap. While the Orioles don't need a new catcher, what they will want is young, controllable starting pitching depth. It's not like Baltimore is light years away from winning, but this young core has taken a step back both this season and last. It's okay to retool, even if it means giving up on a former No. 1 overall pick.
Would the Orioles make this trade?
From the Orioles perspective, this trade has about everything they could want. Schoolcraft is still a teenager and quickly rising up the prospect ranks. He won't be featured in Baltimore's starting rotation anytime soon, but give it a few years and selling high on Rutschman could look a whole lot better.
Musgrove, 24, could work his way up the majors sooner rather than later. McCoy is another top-20 prospect in the Padres system that projects as a fourth outfielder type. In a sense, the Orioles could acquire three future major leaguers for one, and two that could contribute as early as this season.
Verdict: Yes
Would the Padres make this trade?
The Padres probably shouldn't make this trade. San Diego isn't likely to win the World Series in 2026. Preller doesn't think that way, though, and operates under Les Snead's 'F them picks' mentality. Prospects are draft picks, in this case, and though the Padres have Ethan Salas waiting in the minor leagues, he is not ready to take over the catching duties full-time yet.
San Diego's farm system doesn't have much to offer outside of Salas and Schoolcraft. If one has to go, the Padres would rather it be the latter, especially for more than one season of control on Rutschman. San Diego's farm system can't be stolen from in part because there isn't much to steal. So yes, they have to pay a premium for proven talent. It's the Preller way.
Verdict: Yes, because Preller
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