Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The MLB trade deadline approaches with most teams still in Wild Card contention, setting the stage for bold moves.
- Tarik Skubal is the most attractive trade chip likely to be moved, with teams like the Cubs and Dodgers interested.
- Skubal will not be the only impact player moved, though, as All-Stars could change teams quickly.
The MLB trade deadline is officially two months away on Aug. 3. The standings, meanwhile, are pure chaos, with the majority of the league still locked in Wild Card contention. That could mean we're in for an especially chaotic trade deadline. Or perhaps it leads more teams to stand pat.
For the purposes of this article, let's get bold — and predict a few major shake-ups that fall within the realm of reason. Let's start with an unexpected landing spot for the best pitcher in baseball:
Cubs will trade for Tarik Skubal
The Dodgers are the team most frequently connected to Tarik Skubal. It makes sense. Los Angeles has MLB's deepest farm system and the financial liquidity to re-sign the reigning AL Cy Young winner as a free agent.
At the end of the day, however, the Dodgers can just try to sign Skubal as a free agent in a few months. Without trading the prospects. The Dodgers already have six quality starters on the roster, with top prospect River Ryan breezing through Triple-A competition and really to fill any unexpected gaps. How much does Skubal really move the needle for a team with the needle already cranked to the max?
Milwaukee, Toronto and others teams will invariably be mentioned in Skubal conversations, but look out for the Cubs. Jed Hoyer showed his appetite for bold, risky rentals with the Kyle Tucker trade a year ago. Skubal would transform a talented-but-injury prone Cubs rotation.
Chicago has talented bats coming up through the pipeline. In the case of Kevin Alcántara, he doesn't really have a place in the MLB lineup. The Cubs can put together a compelling offer and no team in the Wild Card race stands to benefit more profoundly from even a half season of Skubal than Chicago, a team with more than enough talent to mount a deep run in October.
Orioles finally bite the bullet on Adley Rutschman
Baltimore has resisted Adley Rutschman trade overtures for a couple years now, despite prolonged struggles at the plate. He has rewarded their patience this season with a .832 OPS and 134 OPS+, belting eight home runs. The value of a switch-hitting catcher with Rutschman's defensive bonafides goes without saying. But he's also in the penultimate year of his contract, with nary a peep out of Baltimore about a potential extension.
This is the perfect opportunity for the O's to sell high. Their postseason hopes are fading. This iteration of the core has gone nowhere. Rutschman can net them several high-end prospects from a variety of contenders. Baltimore needs pitching most of all. This feels like a wise solution.
It helps that Samuel Basallo (.815 OPS and 129 OPS+) has already surpassed Rutschman in the organizational hierarchy. Baltimore has a ready-made replacement — a 21-year-old bopper who'd be best utilized as a full-time catcher, in a perfect world.
Phillies add another quality starting pitcher
The Phillies need a right-handed bat (preferably in the outfield) more than anything else. Last year, Philly went out and acquired Harrison Bader for a half-season. A similar strategy, perhaps targeting Baltimore's Taylor Ward, could be in play over the coming months.
What Dombrowski does better than anything, however, is acquire impact pitching. And the Phillies could really use an upgrade over Andrew Painter for the stretch run (and Aaron Nola for the playoffs).
Philadelphia already has tons of money tied up in the rotation, and Painter takes top organizational priority as their former No. 1 prospect. Whether it's bumping Painter to a bullpen role or letting him marinate a bit longer in Triple-A, the Phillies would benefit from a change. And if Dombrowski does not seed an immediate path to solving the Phillies' deep-rooted offensive problems, their best path to the World Series is probably quadrupling down on a strength.
Skubal, Joe Ryan and other top aces are probably a stretch, but names like Casey Mize, Sandy Alcántara and Michael Wacha could hold sneaky appeal for the Phillies front office.
Dodgers stand pat
The Dodgers are typically aggressive on all fronts when it comes to talent acquisition. The front office has a blank check from ownership. The team has won back-to-back World Series and there's zero reason not to push all the chips in to hopefully win another.
That said, Los Angeles is approaching the logical conclusion of its no-holds-barred approach to team building: the roster is damn near bulletproof. Los Angeles has an expensive lineup dotted with superstar talent. The rotation stretches six-deep easily, even amid injuries to Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow. Los Angeles' defense was a problem last year; it's elite now. The bullpen was a problem last year, now L.A. has the best bullpen ERA in baseball.
Worried about depth? Don't be. The Dodgers boast a top-five farm system, with several MLB-ready outfielders, a premium pitching prospect in River Ryan, and other minor leaguers knocking on the door.
There's just no reason for the Dodgers to expend major resources at the deadline. This team is already a heavy frontrunner in the World Series race. When it comes to Skubal and other potential star targets, the Dodgers can simply wait until free agency — when they don't need to siphon off prospects to make it happen.
So yes, the Dodgers — those Dodgers — will stand pat at the deadline.
Pirates trade Bubba Chandler for another bat
Pittsburgh made several aggressive moves last offseason and it has paid off, with the Buccos right in the thick of NL Wild Card contention. The rotation around Paul Skenes is predictably elite, while the lineup has come alive behind the big-bopping productivity of Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn.
There is still ample room for the Pirates to improve at the deadline, and it feels like the front office is finally coming around to the fact that Skenes' window won't stretch forever. We know he's not a lifelong Pirate. Now is the time to push chips in and start getting serious about these next few years.
Given Pittsburgh's depth on the mound, we could see the front office float Bubba Chandler — a consensus top-20 prospect in MLB coming into the year — for a needle-moving bat. Chandler is still a phenomenal talent, but he's struggling to lock in his command in the majors. He has a 4.91 ERA through 62.1 innings; his strikeout rate isn't as high as you'd expect given the quality of his stuff, and that's because Chandler simply struggles to pitch in the zone consistently.
Another team will gladly bet on Chandler's upside, while the Pirates might prefer a more immediate lift in the lineup. Think Adley Rutschman, as mentioned earlier. Or perhaps another marquee bat floating around the rumor mill, such as Washington's CJ Abrams.
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