Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Cardinals and Mets face off this week in a pivotal NL Central series. This trade could reshape both teams' fate this season.
- St. Louis would land Peralta for cheap, while New York acquires pitching prospect Jurrangelo Cijntje, a lower return due to Peralta's recent slump.
- The deal gives the Cardinals a needed rotation stabilizer for a playoff push and lets the rebuilding Mets net a top-100 prospect.
This week's three-game series between the St. Louis Cardinals and the New York Mets at Citi Field was an opportunity for these National League postseason hopefuls to show why MLB fans should believe in them. Are the Cardinals for real? Do the Mets have a miraculous run in them? Well, the Cardinals took the opener of the series 7-0, adding onto their Wild Card lead and pushing the Mets further back in the standings.
This outcome has fans of both teams thinking the same sort of thing. Cardinals fans are thinking about getting better, while Mets fans are wondering what they can conceivably get for Freddy Peralta at the trade deadline. With that in mind, why not revisit an idea thrown out by FanSided's Mark Powell a month ago and send Peralta to St. Louis in a mock trade? Unfortunately for Mets fans, the deal would look a bit different now than it would've then.
This Mets-Cardinals trade would send Freddy Peralta back to the NL Central, but with St. Louis
The proposed deal would be quite simple, with the Cardinals landing Peralta and the Mets acquiring Jurrangelo Cijntje, the 84th-ranked prospect according to MLB Pipeline and the 81st-ranked prospect on FanSided's top 100 list.
This would probably be seen as a disappointing return for Mets fans. Not only did their team give up Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat, two top 100 prospects according to most outlets, to acquire Peralta during the offseason, but in last month's mock trade from FanSided, Powell had the Mets acquiring Peralta and Jimmy Crooks, an MLB-ready catching prospect who ranks within the top 10 of the Cardinals' system.
Unfortunately, with how Peralta has pitched, it makes sense to remove that secondary sweetener from the mock proposal at this point in time.
Why Freddy Peralta isn't quite as valuable as he once was
Peralta has not been bad, but he hasn't been quite as good as Mets fans expected him to be coming off a top-five finish in the NL Cy Young balloting. Not only does the right-hander have a 4.04 ERA, his highest mark as a full-time starter in his career, but he has a 23.4 percent strikeout rate, which is a career-low by almost four percent. Peralta remains one of MLB's most durable starters, but his stuff is not quite as sharp as it's been in past years, and he's completed six innings just six times in 14 starts.
And it's not like he's been any better lately. Peralta has a 5.65 ERA in his last five starts, and he just allowed six runs in six innings against these Cardinals at Citi Field on Tuesday. He's been able to complete six or more innings in three of his last four starts, but he's given up four or more runs in two of those games. Even in starts he's pitched well in, he's had to work his way out of trouble a ton.
Peralta can still help any contender looking for a rotation upgrade, and his cheap $8 million salary only makes him more valuable. Results matter, though, and while Peralta's track record is quite good, he isn't pitching like an ace right now.
Why this trade makes sense for the Cardinals
The Cardinals did not enter this year intending to compete, but at a certain point, we need to accept that this team is good. The Cardinals are 36-28, holding sole possession of the first Wild Card spot and sitting just 4.5 games back in the NL Central. It's not as if the Cardinals are fighting to make the playoffs—right now, they're eight games over .500, holding the fourth-best record in the NL. That means something.
Peralta can give them the rotation stabilizer they need. This is a young and inexperienced Cardinals team and a young and inexperienced starting rotation. Peralta might not be Tarik Skubal, but he's led postseason rotations before, starting several openers of postseason series for the Brewers over his career. His track record, paired with his clubhouse presence, could really help the Cardinals when the pressure is on.
And it's not as if the Cardinals are selling the farm, either. Cijntje is a solid pitching prospect, but he's having a rough year in Double-A, and whether he has the command to stick as a starting pitcher remains to be seen. Acquiring a proven frontline arm (who they can easily re-sign if they want to) while holding onto prospects like Liam Doyle, Rainiel Rodriguez and Joshua Baez feels like a clear win.
Why this trade makes sense for the Mets
Just like at a certain point we need to accept that the Cardinals are a good team, at a certain point, we need to accept that the Mets are not as good. At 29-37, the Mets are in last place in the NL East and hold the third-worst record in the National League. They might only be 5.0 games back of the third Wild Card spot, but there are a ton of teams in front of them, and at no point have the Mets given anybody reason to believe that they're capable of playing well enough for long enough to make up much ground in a competitive race.
Knowing that, why not trade him now when a postseason berth feels so unlikely? It's not as if the Mets would be unable to sign him this winter if they wanted to, with Steve Cohen's wallet to use.
Is the package underwhelming? Perhaps, but landing a top-100 prospect for a rental, even without a solid secondary piece, wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. There's a path for Cijntje to be an impactful big-league starter, and join the likes of Nolan McLean, Christian Scott, Jonah Tong and others in a very young rotation in the not-too-distant future.
The Mets should hope for better, but with how Peralta has pitched lately, this deal would be solid.
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