Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- A team leading its playoff race is facing a glaring mismatch between its strengths and weaknesses this season.
- Their offense and defense have carried them to a commanding position, but their pitching ranks near the bottom of the league.
- The front office now faces a critical decision that could determine whether this contender becomes a true October force.
Pitching and defense win championships. The Chicago Cubs are in playoff position despite not living up to that adage, though.
Instead, hitting and defense are carrying the Cubs. They are second in the Major Leagues in runs scored per game and third in defensive efficiency entering play on Friday. Center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is leading the way with his MLB-best 6.2 bWAR.
However, the Cubs are just 14th in MLB in ERA, as their 4.15 mark is barely above the league average of 4.18. Yet despite an almost comical rash of injuries, Chicago is 62-47 and leads the National League Wild Card standings by five games over the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies. The Cubs are also still within sight of the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers, sitting 5.5 games back in second place.
All of which would seem to make Jed Hoyer's mission at the trade deadline abundantly clear. Chicago is in every other respect a World Series contender; fix the pitching staff, and there's no reason why this team can't make real noise in October. While they wait for their front office to provide reinforcements by Aug. 3, though, the team itself is simply making the best of a historically unlucky situation.
“We have been pretty healthy on the position player group side, and I think our defense has continued to support the pitching group in a big way,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said. “Then we've had enough depth and found enough depth to put together a respectable effort on the pitching side every night.”
Starting pitching is Cubs’ deadline focus
However, the Cubs know they need to bolster their rotation by Monday’s trade deadline.
“We have enough starting pitching to get to the playoffs,” a Cubs source told FanSided. “I don’t think we have enough to get very far once we get there.”
Indeed, Chicago has just two playoff-caliber starters on the active roster in left-handers Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga. The Cubs are hoping to get right-hander Edward Cabrera back by mid-August, as he is on the IL with a left hamstring/adductor strain. But Cabrera was having an up-and-down year even before his injury.
Chicago would prefer to trade for starters who are under contractual control beyond this season, pitchers such as the Los Angeles Angels’ Reid Detmers and Jose Soriano and the Seattle Mariners’ Emerson Hancock. The Cubs covet the Twins’ Joe Ryan, but Minnesota is holding onto him as they remain in Wild Card contention.
Of course, two-time American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal is also available. Still, the Cubs don’t want to surrender the type of prospect package the Detroit Tigers are looking for in return. While pitchers on expiring contracts are not the Cubs’ preference, they will consider making plays for cheaper rentals like the San Francisco Giants’ Robbie Ray, the New York Mets’ Freddy Peralta and the Toronto Blue Jays’ Kevin Gausman.
Cubs have cobbled their bullpen together, but could still use help
The Cubs also would like to add some stability to their bullpen. San Diego Padres closer Mason Miller is the biggest relief prize on the trade market. The Cubs are interested in the New York Mets’ Luke Weaver, who they tried to sign as a free agent last winter.
Closer Daniel Palencia has been sidelined by a right flexor strain in his elbow since mid-June, but the Cubs are hopeful of getting him back around the same time as Cabrera. Counsell has been using an all-hands-on-deck bullpen strategy since Palencia went on the IL, just like Chicago has been able to fill holes each time the rotation springs a leak.
“We’ve had guys stepping up in big moments,” Counsell said. “The way (the relievers) have handled the situation is admirable. We’ve had to rely on different options than maybe you’d imagine at the beginning of the year. It’s always easier for the bullpen when the phone rings and you know exactly what your role is, which inning you’re going to pitch.
“But then you see how the playoffs work, and all that stuff goes out the window and you’re just the best way to navigate 27 outs. That’s kind of how we treated this year.”
By Monday, it will be clearer if the Cubs have enough pitching to navigate this October.
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