History and common sense (we know, two things that don’t always share space in a conversation) typically dictate that a $162 million pitcher doesn’t make a playoff roster for one of two reasons: injuries or disaster.
Luckily for the New York Yankees, that’s not the problem with veteran lefty Carlos Rodón. The three-time All-Star is healthy after multiple elbow problems, and he’s recorded a 2.95 ERA and 1.6 bWAR over 11 starts. Depending on how confident you feel about Gerrit Cole, we’d argue that Rodón is the Yankees’ third-best starter behind AL Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler and the always-reliable Max Fried.
Yet all signs point to Cole, and not Rodón, starting a potential Game 3 in the Wild Card Series. In fact, some who cover the Yankees have even listed the latter as someone who could be on the roster bubble, at least for the first round.
The New York Yankees must turn to Carlos Rodón rather than Gerrit Cole in the playoffs
We addressed the Cole vs. Rodón debate earlier this week, so we don’t want to make things too repetitive. The bottom line is that Cole has allowed far more home runs at Yankee Stadium than on the road, and the Yankees would host all three games (if needed) in the Wild Card Series. Theoretically, that’d set Rodón up to possibly pitch Game 1 of the ALDS, which would either be against the No. 1 Rays or whoever earns the No. 2 seed; as of Friday afternoon, that honor would go to the AL Central-leading White Sox.
Let’s take a quick look at how Cole and Rodón fare in several key departments:
Stat | Carlos Rodón | Gerrit Cole |
|---|---|---|
Batters faced | 315 | 475 |
Batting average against | .178 | .241 |
Walk rate | 12.1 percent | 4.2 percent |
Strikeout rate | 26.3 percent | 24.6 percent |
Home runs allowed | Seven | 20 |
Doubles | 12 | 21 |
Triples | Zero | Two |
Hit batsmen | 2 | 2 |
The knock against Rodón, though, is his career-worst 12.1 percent walk rate, which is significantly above his lifetime 9.0 average. He hasn't exceeded a 9.0 percent walk rate over a full season since a 10.8 mark in 2018. Assuming that the Yankees don’t overtake the Rays in the AL East, they’d host the Red Sox in the first round.
But here's the good news: The Red Sox have drawn 491 walks, well below the league average of 516. So you’d think that Rodón has the leg up on Cole, right? Interestingly, the Red Sox have only hit 158 home runs, which is tied for seventh-worst in baseball. Much of their offense comes from doubles — their 272 two-baggers are one off the Royals for the MLB lead — and the occasional bruise; the Red Sox’s 93 hit-by-pitches are tied with the Angels for the league lead.
Call us boring, but we’d much rather have the guy who works around walks instead of the 36-year-old with a penchant for giving up home runs. Naturally, that means we should prepare for Cole to throw seven shutout innings during his first playoff start, but what do we know?
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