If you thought that the specter of a looming lockout at the start of December would turn the MLB GM Meetings into the de-facto Winter Meetings, you spent this week being sorely disappointed. All 30 teams depart from Vegas with ... not a whole lot in the way of activity, outside the Detroit Tigers breaking the seal on free agency by signing former Cincinnati Reds closer Emilio Pagan.
But while we're still waiting for the Hot Stove to get warm, we still learned plenty over the past few days about how this offseason might take shape — and what the economic landscape of the sport might look like come the spring. That's good news for certain teams and players; others weren't so lucky, though, starting with the biggest free agent on the market.
Loser: Tarik Skubal
Of course, "loser" here is a relative term; Skubal is arguably the best pitcher on the planet squarely in his prime, and he's going to get paid a whole bunch of money no matter what happens over the next few weeks. But any hopes of resetting the market for starting pitchers, much less approaching the $400 million mark, are much fainter now than they were at the start of the winter.
Where exactly will that sort of demand come from? The Los Angeles Dodgers appear to be more interested in a short-term deal with a higher AAV. The Toronto Blue Jays earned a meeting with Skubal, but recent reporting suggests that's more due diligence than desperation given their wealth of starting pitching options and their need for impact bats. The San Diego Padres would no doubt love to poach the lefty from a division rival, but with so many big deals already on the books, can they really break the bank the way Skubal is no doubt hoping for?
Go down the list, and it's hard to find big-market suitors that will create the sort of bidding war that produces a record-setting contract.
Loser: Scott Boras
Which will make life much harder for his agent, as Boras typically thrives by playing talent-hungry teams with deep pockets against one another. Even under normal circumstances, that might be tricky in this market. But given the apparently very real concerns around the league about throwing money around ahead of a potential salary cap, Boras is no longer holding all the cards.
And he might have to get used to that arrangement. Boras has been a vocal opponent of MLB instituting any sort of cap, and while he might be correct on the merits, he's also certainly acting out of his own self-interest. In a world with fixed max contracts, there's not a ton of negotiating for baseball's preeminent super-agent to do.
Winner: New York Mets
The Mets, meanwhile, might just be able to let Skubal come to them. The other three teams that are confirmed to be meeting with the lefty all have reason to be a bit gun-shy about a long-term contract. But New York has both the richest owner in baseball and a pretty clean payroll situation moving forward, with only Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor on the books for the long haul. They feel like the clear favorite for Skubal at the moment, the best combination of both able and willing, and that's a pretty good position to be in.
Loser: Los Angeles Dodgers
This isn't even really just about Skubal; the Dodgers will have one of the best rotations in baseball next season regardless of whether they're able to bring him back to Los Angeles. But it's hard not to look at the way they're handling Skubal's free agency so far, and the rumblings around their desire to offload the final year of Teoscar Hernandez's contract, and the rumblings around owner Mark Walter's finances at the moment, and read the writing on the wall.
Even if MLB gives teams an extra year to become cap-compliant, that would still put the Dodgers in a bit of a bind, given how much money they have committed in 2028 and beyond. It feels like baseball's Death Star is finally feeling the squeeze, which could make for a quieter winter than usual for a team that suddenly finds itself with a creaky lineup that needs to be addressed.
Winner: Rob Manfred
There's a long way to go between now and the expiration of the current CBA on Dec. 2, and the players have made it very clear that they have no interest in acceding to a salary cap under any circumstances. The general tenor of the GM Meetings, though, would suggest that MLB front offices think that Manfred will eventually win this staring contest.
How else to explain the general timidity in both the free agency and trade markets? If teams really weren't all that worried about a sea change, they'd be looking to get as much business as possible done before a lockout sets in. Instead, they're clearly worried about how any deals might look in a new salary cap world, and that's the sort of fear that Manfred feeds on. The more free agents left dangling during a lockout, the more leverage he can exert.
Loser: New York Yankees
The most credible piece of news around the Yankees at the GM Meetings involved their interest in former Phillie Alec Bohm, a curious choice (to say the least) given New York's glut of corner bats and their desire to get better defensively. If Bohm is simply a replacement for Paul Goldschmidt as Luis Garcia Jr.'s platoon partner at first base, fair enough, but it's hard to believe his market will crater to that extent. And if Brian Cashman really is considering him as a solution at third base, it's hard to overstate how disastrous that would be.
Add in a lack of great roster fits in free agency (most of the best bats are corner outfielders, which New York is already full up on) and a sleepy trade market (more on that in a moment), and early signs are not promising in the Bronx.
Winner: San Diego Padres
Sure, the Padres haven't actually signed anybody yet. But AJ Preller more or less shut down any notion that the team might be looking to trade stars like Mason Miller and Fernando Tatis Jr. Couple that with San Diego scoring a meeting with Skubal, and there's good reason to believe that this new ownership group really is set on spending some money moving forward. For a team with holes to fill but plenty of cash already committed to aging stars, that's a godsend.
Winner: Seiya Suzuki and Randy Arozarena
While Skubal's market is a bit slower to materialize, it seems like half the league is desperate to get their hands on outfield bats, particularly ones who hit right-handed. That's tremendous news for both Suzuki and Arozarena, likely the two most established position players in this thin free agent market.
Everyone from the Yankees to the Red Sox to the Blue Jays to the Phillies to the Braves to the Cubs to the Padres could be in on these markets, and unlike Skubal, their paydays shouldn't be overly strenuous in a cap environment.
Loser: The trade market
At the start of the winter, it was easy to dream on a star-studded trade market that featured players like CJ Abrams, Shea Langeliers, Gunnar Henderson, Logan Gilbert and even mega-names like Tatis Jr., Elly De La Cruz and Ronald Acuña Jr. Some of the above might yet wind up being available, but for now, it sure sounds like teams are setting the same sort of high bar that made this past trade deadline relatively anemic. Especially if a cap is coming, cost control is king, so there's very little reason to cut ties with a player multiple years away from free agency unless you're getting an absolute haul in return. It won't be totally barren, of course; Reid Detmers and Jeremy Peña are almost certainly gone this winter, to name just two. But things could be move much more slowly than expected.
Winner: Teruaki Sato
Sato's market figured to be fascinating. On the one hand, the raw power he displayed in Japan was prodigious; on the other, he came with real concerns about his strikeout rate and his lack of defensive value. So far, though, it seems like teams have been swayed by Munetaka Murakami's successful debut in the States, with several big-market suitors allegedly inquiring about his services. It remains to be seen where his contract will eventually wind up, but it's a good sign that front offices don't appear to be scared off by the question marks in his profile. In a thin market for hitters, he could get paid.
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