From an injury perspective, the Oklahoma City Thunder are having a nightmarish start to the season. Jalen Williams might be out for the year with a fractured fibula and a dislocated left ankle. Cason Wallace is out indefinitely due to a torn labrum. And Chet Holmgren is out for eight to 10 weeks because of a patellar tendon tear in his right knee.
Despite that, the Thunder have gotten off to an 8-2 start to the season. They're sitting only one game behind the Western Conference-leading Los Angeles Lakers (10-2) and a half-game behind Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs (9-2), which puts them right back in the mix for the best record in the West for the fourth straight season.
Granted, it won't be easy for the injury-ravaged Thunder to stave off all challengers this year. Aside from the Lakers and Spurs, the Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves and Houston Rockets are each hot on their tail at 8-3. Even the upstart Memphis Grizzlies (7-3) and Portland Trail Blazers (6-3) aren't too far behind, although neither one seems like a realistic threat to finish with the West's best record.
But even if the Thunder don't earn the No. 1 seed in the playoffs for the fourth year running, they have a potential silver lining awaiting them in June. They have the right to swap first-round picks with the Los Angeles Clippers, who've gotten off to a disappointing 2-7 start this season. If the Clippers can't turn their season around, the Thunder could be in line to add a high lottery pick to their already-loaded roster.
The Thunder and the new NBA lottery
The NBA overhauled its draft lottery in the spring in an effort to deter the tanking that had grown rampant in recent years. Unlike the previous system, where the teams with the league's worst records had the highest chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick — and a relatively high floor that they could fall no further below as well — the new lottery is far less merciful. Now, the teams that finish with the three worst records have worse odds than the other seven non-play-in teams.
For now, the Utah Jazz (1-9), Sacramento Kings (1-9) and Milwaukee Bucks (1-9) are in the so-called "relegation zone," while the Chicago Bulls (1-8) and Brooklyn Nets (2-8) aren't far behind. The Nets and Bucks don't have control of their own 2027 first-round pick, so they might not be especially concerned about finishing in the relegation zone. The Kings and Bulls do control their own 2027 first-rounders, so they do have incentive to escape from the relegation zone, but they're both genuinely terrible and might not be able to do so.
The Clippers should get better once Brandon Ingram makes his season debut, but they're already staring down the precipice of a lost season, and they have a boatload of draft picks to recoup in the wake of their Kawhi Leonard salary-cap circumvention punishment. They might not have anyone on their roster who would fetch multiple first-rounders, but since they don't control their 2027 first-rounder, they could tear down at the trade deadline and take what they can get for any veteran who isn't in their long-term plans.
If the Clippers do finish outside of the play-in tournament but avoid having a bottom-three record, that would be the sweet spot for OKC's purposes. The exact odds could shift a bit, but at baseline, the remaining non-play-in teams have an 8.1 percent chance at landing the No. 1 overall pick, a 24 percent chance at a top-three pick, a 39 percent chance at a top-five pick and a 73 percent chance at a top-10 pick. They can fall as low as No. 16, but the odds are heavily in their favor not to drop that far.
The 2027 draft class doesn't project to be as loaded as last year's — there's no AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson or Cam Boozer in this year's crop — but OKC's draft and player-development record in recent years speaks for itself. Whomever the Thunder land with the Clippers pick will be dropped into one of the best environments in the NBA, particularly since they won't be expected to lead the team right away.
The Thunder are also owed a top-five-protected pick from the Denver Nuggets in 2027 and the Spurs' pick as long as they make the playoffs. So, they could have as many as three first-rounders in this year's draft, including a potentially high lottery pick from the Clippers.
The Thunder have already begun disassembling their roster due to financial reasons, and they have more tough decisions ahead, particularly once Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's supermax contract begins next season. Having multiple first-round picks to replenish their supporting cast with young, cost-controlled talent will be a godsend for them, particularly if the lottery gods smile on the Clippers next May.
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