Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Miami Heat's championship-ready roster now has a glaring hole after a key free agent chose another team on the first day of negotiations.
- Their projected starting shooting guard is a 25-year-old with limited starting experience, raising major concerns about depth and offensive spacing.
- The front office must act quickly to address the position before the Heat fall behind rivals in the crowded Eastern Conference title race.
After the Miami Heat landed Giannis Antetokounmpo — it seemed like their core rotation was set for next season. Giannis would form a devastating interior tandem with Bam Adebayo. Davion Mitchell would swarm opposing ball-handlers at the point of attack. And Norm Powell and Andrew Wiggins would provide the shooting and complementary creation to add space and keep the offense moving.
Powell was a free agent but the assumption was that he'd leap at the chance to come back to Miami, lock in as the starting shooting guard and premier perimeter scorer and chase a championship. That hypothetical ran into a brick wall on the first full day of free agency when Powell opted to sign a two-year, $45 million contract with the Chicago Bulls.
The Heat have time to pivot but all of a sudden they need to fill a massive hole in their backcourt or risk putting a supporting cast around Giannis that's as flawed as the one he had with the Bucks the past two years.
Who starts at shooting guard for the Miami Heat?
With the moves that have been announced so far there are three options — Dru Smith, Pelle Larsson and Tim Hardaway Jr. The Heat chose to keep Smith around and fully guaranteed his contract for next season but he's not ready to be a starter on a playoff team. He's 28 so there's not much hope for upside and while he filled in admirably last season, he's a 33.8 percent 3-point shooter who was under 30 percent last year.
Hardaway Jr. is a well-traveled veteran and reliable outside shooter but, again, much better suited for a limited bench role. He doesn't offer much outside of his spot-up shooting and has played more than 30 minutes per game just twice in his 13-year career.
Larsson is 25, heading into his third season and had some impressive moments last year, averaging 11.4 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.4 assists in 70 games last year. If the season started today, he'd be the starting shooting guard but he'd also be the biggest question mark for a rotation that was built to be championship or bust.
Projected Heat starting lineup and depth chart
PLAYER | POSITION | BENCH |
|---|---|---|
Davion Mitchell | PG | Dru Smith |
Pelle Larsson | SG | Tim Hardaway Jr. |
Andrew Wiggins | SF | Simone Fontecchio |
Giannis Antetokounmpo | PF | Nikola Jović |
Bam Adebayo | C | Bobby Portis |
The Heat obviously like Larsson and kept him out of the Giannis deal because of that. But they almost certainly expected him to be backing up Powell this season, not needing to be an every night started. Wiggins has the potential to defend smaller players and could slide down to take guard minute with Fontecchio or Jović playing as the other forward with Giannis. And, to their credit, the Heat have done a great job making sure they have shooting at every position to help space the floor.
But shooting guard is still the soft spot here and an injury could be really disruptive. The Heat are below the first apron and have the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception available which could let them make a run at another starting guard but the board is getting thin with James Harden likely heading back to Cleveland and Collin Sexton, Luke Kennard, Keon Ellis and Quentin Grimes already signed. At this point their best bet might be throwing something the bulk of the MLE at Anfernee Simons in a three- or four-year deal to make sure they have a reliable, experienced scoring threat in that slot.
Make no mistake — the Heat will be very good next season. But losing Powell is a big hit and the argument that they didn't gut their roster in the Giannis trade feels a bit weaker. Not finding another shooting guard upgrade would definitely put them on a tier below teams like the Knicks and Celtics at the top of the East.
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